Key Facts
- Sevilla (14th/21 points) is stuck in the lower mid-table; a win could bring them closer to Rayo, while Athletic (10th/24) has its sights set on Sociedad and Girona.
- Sevilla comes off five league games with one draw and four losses; after the break, they conceded a goal in each game, with Akor Adams saving them late with a brace in Elche.
- Athletic showed resilience in their 3-2 comeback in Bergamo; Simón kept them in the game, Navarro and Serrano provided impetus, but they have conceded goals in each of their last five games.
- The head-to-head record clearly favors Athletic: unbeaten in five league games, scoring in all five, Sevilla always conceding goals; the visitors often take an early lead, while Sevilla have failed to score before the break.
- The odds (Sevilla 2.9; draw 3.0; Athletic 2.6) also suggest a close game; Athletic’s “avoid defeat” bet is supported by Sevilla’s defensive problems and Athletic’s consistent pattern of conceding goals.
When a single point can tip the balance at the bottom of the table, matches like this immediately take on added significance: Matías Almeyda’s Sevilla will host Ernesto Valverde’s Athletic at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán on Saturday, January 24, 2026, and a glance at the table provides enough excitement. Sevilla are 14th in the table with 21 points, just one point behind Rayo Vallecano and level on points with Mallorca, while Athletic are tenth with 24 points, close behind Real Sociedad and Girona. Sevilla has recently stabilized somewhat with a 2-2 draw in Elche, carried by a late brace from Adams. In addition, Ejuke and Sow are returning, even though Marcão is still suspended and injuries are thinning out the options. Athletic travel on the back of a 3-2 win at Atalanta in the Champions League, but could be hampered by reported absences, and they have recently enjoyed this fixture, including a 3-2 win in August.
- Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Seville
- Date and time: January 24, 2026, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 21)
The odds also reflect the closeness of the match: in the three-way market, Sevilla is at 2.9, the draw at 3.0, and Athletic at 2.6. The safest bet therefore seems to be on Athletic to avoid defeat, especially as Marcão is still suspended and Sevilla is missing key players. Nevertheless, Adams and Ejuke are back, and Athletic are riding the momentum of their comeback against Atalanta – even if they are without Guruzeta and Lekue – which supports both “Both teams to score: Yes” and “Over 1.5 goals in the second half.”
Sevilla form & record check
Sevilla goes into matchday 21 in 14th place in the table with 21 points, Rayo Vallecano is just one point ahead, Mallorca is level on points behind, so suddenly every detail seems more important than usual. Things have been looking bleak in the league recently, with one draw and four defeats from the last five games, and the pattern is striking: The first halves remain close, then the team falls apart after the break and concedes a goal in the second half every time. This slide also includes the Copa del Rey exit at Alaves, 1-0, an evening on which Sevilla created too little and looked surprisingly uninspired in the final third. In La Liga, there was first the 2-0 defeat at Real Madrid, then home defeats against Levante 0-3 and Celta 0-1, before Adams saved a point with two late goals in the 2-2 draw at Elche. Almeyda can take courage from the reaction in Elche, although that could also mask deeper problems: Sevilla are still waiting for their first goal before the break in this five-game phase, and the defense is regularly pulled apart as soon as their legs get heavy. Marcão remains suspended, Azpilicueta and Nianzou are injured, while the return of Adams, Ejuke and Sow could give the attack more bite again.
Almeyda will most likely stick to his usual 3-4-2-1 formation, with Vlachodimos in goal and a back three of Carmona, Gudelj, and Salas in front of him. Juanlu and Suazo will provide width, while Sow and Agoumé are most likely to set the pace in the center.
In the half-spaces, Ejuke and Peque could operate around Romero, giving Sevilla plenty of speed on the counterattack. Adams, Ejuke, and Sow are back, but the absences continue to hurt: Marcão is serving a six-game La Liga suspension, and Azpilicueta and Nianzou are also out, so Gudelj will likely have to shore up the back three. Further up front, Sánchez, Vargas, Januzaj, and Alfon are still missing, and Mendy is suspended, leaving Adams as the most likely option to make an impact later on.
Bilbao form & record check
Athletic travels to Sevilla, and the season continues in two directions. In La Liga, they are in 10th place with 24 points, level on points with Real Sociedad above them and Girona below them, but their recent league form has often looked too uncontrolled, and the results have reflected that. Across all competitions, however, they have shown a certain stubbornness in knockout moments, which is preventing Valverde’s project from really falling into disarray. The clearest sign of this resilience was the Champions League victory at Atalanta, a 3-2 comeback that completely turned the mood around in one half. Simón kept them in the game with important saves, then the offensive substitutions took effect: Navarro became increasingly influential with an assist and a goal, Serrano’s impact off the bench changed the tempo, and Guruzeta’s finish gave them the confidence to play forward again with clear intent. In the league, the story was much more messy: The 3-2 win in Mallorca came in a game that was too easily turned around, and the 1-1 draw at Osasuna felt like a missed opportunity to finally get some breathing space. Even in the Super Cup semi-final, the 5-0 defeat to Barcelona showed how quickly the back line can fall apart when the pressing is overplayed and the gaps become too big. The patterns reinforce this: they have conceded a goal in each of their last five games, and each time they have also conceded a goal in the first half, while their second halves are often more stable, with less than 1.5 goals in the second half in four of those games. The bigger concern now is availability: Nico Williams, Berenguer, and Berchiche are out, Iñaki Williams is doubtful, and Guruzeta and Lekue are suspended in La Liga, forcing another rethink of the attacking plan.
Valverde is likely to opt for a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Simón behind a back three of Lekue, Vivian, and Paredes. Gorosabel and Boiro will provide width as wingbacks, while Ruiz de Galarreta and Jauregizar will dictate the tempo in the center. In front of them, Navarro and Gómez could repeatedly cut inside as creative minds, with Serrano leading the press up front. The absences determine the options: Álvarez continues to serve a suspension across all competitions, Egiluz is out with a cruciate ligament rupture, and Prados is not eligible to play in the Champions League. Most recently, reports have also mentioned problems with Berenguer, Nico Williams, Berchiche, and Iñaki Williams, as well as injuries to Laporte and Sannadi. Interestingly, Athletic may therefore have to rely more on organization and counterattacks to win games.
Sevilla – Bilbao Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last five league matches, Athletic Bilbao has clearly had the upper hand over Sevilla, with four wins and one draw, while Sevilla has been unsuccessful. The most recent encounter in August 2025 was an outlier on the scoreboard, with Athletic narrowly winning 3-2. Before that, there was a 0-1 away win in March 2025, plus a 1-1, a 2-0 and a 0-2, all in 2024. These series are hard to overlook: Athletic is unbeaten in five games and has scored in all five, while Sevilla has conceded in all five. Added to this is a series of three games in which Sevilla trailed at halftime, matching Athletic’s three consecutive halftime leads. Sevilla has not scored in the first half in any of these five games, suggesting that slow starts are consistently punished. Overall, these duels tend to be controlled rather than chaotic: four of the five ended with under 2.5 goals, and in four games, fewer than 1.5 goals were scored after the break. This suggests that the games often settle down once the early phase is over. Interestingly, the 3-2 result in August 2025 is the only one that completely broke the trend, making it more of an exception than the new norm. In terms of personnel, the familiar patterns could shift: Sevilla will be without Marcão due to suspension, and injuries to Nianzou and Azpilicueta will take away further options in defense, which will be significant against Athletic’s habit of striking first. Athletic will be without Yeray due to a cross-competition suspension, so there will be at least one defensive change there as well, but the recent trend clearly favors Valverde’s team.
