Real Sociedad – Real Madrid
Real Sociedad, with only two points from three games, welcomes Real Madrid, who have made a flawless start to the season under Xabi Alonso. The Txuri-urdin are surprisingly in 16th place in the table, while Los Blancos lead the table with nine points. The new Madrid coach returns to his old stomping ground for the first time, where he once captained the Basques. His team has won the last three league games against Real Sociedad, mostly in low-scoring encounters. Despite the absences of Bellingham and Camavinga, the Madrilenians go into the game as clear favorites, with bookmakers giving them a more than 60 percent chance of winning. Sergio Francisco’s team recently showed an aggressive approach in their 1-0 win over Oviedo, but failed to impress offensively, while Alonso’s position-oriented play with effective pressing mechanisms is already working well after just three matchdays.
- Venue: Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
- Date and time: 09/13/2025, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 4)
Real Sociedad Form & Record Check
Real Sociedad is stuck at the bottom of the table after three match days. With only two points and in 16th place, the start to the new season has been anything but ideal. The defensive vulnerability of Sergio Francisco’s team is particularly evident, with the team conceding at least one goal in all of their games so far. The recent 0-1 defeat in Oviedo underscored the problems: Dendoncker scored for the hosts in the 40th minute, while Real Sociedad remained unable to respond despite the substitutions of Kubo, Oyarzabal, and other key players. However, the 2-2 draw at home to Espanyol and the 1-1 draw in Valencia prove that the team is capable of scoring goals. Ander Barrenetxea has been one of the few bright spots, taking on more responsibility in attack. At least two goals have been scored in 80 percent of the last five games, and the team is already seven points behind the leaders.
Real Sociedad are expected to line up in their usual 4-3-3 formation against Real Madrid. The debut of Carlos Soler in central midfield could be one of the most significant changes, with the Valencia signing already appearing to have earned the trust of Sergio Francisco. The predicted line-up is likely to rely on tried and tested players: Remiro in goal, a back four of Aramburu, Zubeldia, Caleta-Car and Aihen Muñoz. In the center, Soler could be joined by Gorrotxategi and Pablo Marín, while up front, the attacking trio of Kubo, Oyarzabal and Barrenetxea will be looking to cause danger.
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid has made a furious start to the new season under Xabi Alonso. Three games, three wins, nine points and joint top of the table with Athletic Bilbao, plus only one goal conceded in three league games. The season opener against Osasuna was a cautious 1-0 win, but this was followed by a show of strength in Oviedo with a 3-1 victory, in which Mbappé demonstrated his goalscoring abilities. The recent 2-1 win against Mallorca showed that this team can also fight. After falling behind early, Güler and Vinicius Junior turned the game around within a minute. Alonso’s playing philosophy is already working like clockwork. The Basque has installed a system of positional play and aggressive pressing after losing the ball, which leaves opponents with little space. New signings Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Carreras, and Mastantuono have slotted in seamlessly. However, with Bellingham, Camavinga, Mendy, Lunin, and Endrick missing, important regulars are absent. Bellingham has resumed training, but his comeback is not expected until October at the earliest.
Real Madrid’s lineup under Xabi Alonso is likely to be the tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation. Thibaut Courtois is expected to be in goal. The new coach will have to do without several key players. The absence of Jude Bellingham is particularly painful. Although he is already back on the training ground after his shoulder operation, he is not expected to return until October. Eduardo Camavinga is also still out with injury. In midfield, Tchouaméni could form a double six alongside Valverde. In attack, Mbappé is likely to be the central reference point, supported by Vinicius Junior on the left. Franco Mastantuono, who recently made history as Argentina’s youngest player to wear the number 10 shirt, could get a chance in the starting lineup.
H2H Real Sociedad – Real Head-to-Head & Statistics
Real Madrid have completely dominated the head-to-head matches in recent years. With four wins and one draw in the last five encounters, the last defeat for Los Blancos against the Basques was years ago. Real Madrid’s current winning streak spans three games. They last won 2-0 in the league in May 2025, after already eliminating Real Sociedad in a dramatic Copa semi-final. The Basques lost the first leg 1-0 at home, with the second leg ending in a spectacular 4-4 draw after extra time. Real Sociedad conceded at least one goal in all five games and failed to score four times. This offensive impotence against the Madrilenians has almost become a trademark. Four of the five games had fewer than 2.5 goals, which is quite surprising given Real’s offensive strength. Xabi Alonso returns to his old stomping ground for the first time as Real coach, but recent history clearly speaks against his former team.
While bookmakers see Real Madrid as clear favorites at 1.6, our analysis highlights specific areas where the market may be thinking too simplistically. The odds for a draw at halftime at around 2.5 seem generous, considering that three of the last four direct encounters were goalless at the break. Real Sociedad started their last two league home games very courageously and led at halftime in both, even against stronger opponents. Madrid are likely to rotate ahead of their Champions League opener against Marseille in midweek and play more cautiously without the injured Bellingham. The “both teams to score” tip benefits from Mbappé’s brilliant form and Oyarzabal’s strong return from the international break, while Sociedad’s vulnerable defense has conceded in every game this season. For brave bettors, “Over 3.5 goals” offers attractive odds, as 80 percent of Madrid’s games have broken the 2.5-goal mark and Sociedad’s home games are regularly high-scoring.
