Real Madrid – Osasuna
A 0-4 defeat in the Club World Cup semi-final against PSG, then a 4-0 defeat in their only public test match in Tyrol, now the league opener at the Bernabéu, Xabi Alonso makes his league home debut. Real Madrid face a compact Osasuna side managed by Alessio Lisci, with both teams starting without any points.
Madrid have not lost on the first day of the season since 2008, and are playing at home for the first time in years. The two sides have met 86 times in the league, including four times at the start of the season, with Real winning three and drawing one.
The most recent encounter ended 1-1 in Pamplona, preceded by a trio of 4-0, 4-0, and 4-2 wins for Real. The trend clearly favors the hosts, but the draw calls for caution and shows that Osasuna can disrupt the rhythm.
In terms of form, Camavinga and Bellingham are missing, while Mbappé and Arda Güler have been making an impact recently. Osasuna will be relying on striker Budimir, new signing Víctor Muñoz and captain Kike Barja up front, while they are still looking for solutions in defense, for example with Jeremiah St. Juste.
Real – Osasuna info
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Date and time: 19.08.2025, 21:00
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 1)
In a nutshell, our picks are based on a clear strategy: Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score: Yes, draw – 1st half and over 1.5 goals – 2nd half. Over 2.5 is supported by recent patterns, with both teams recently scoring 80% of the time, and even more robustly, with at least two goals scored in all five of Osasuna’s games.
Both teams to score: Yes looks attractive because Osasuna has scored in all five games and Real in four. Alonso’s midfield without Bellingham and Camavinga offers less protection, and the newly arranged defense with Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, and Carreras still needs fine-tuning. Budimir, who scored 21 goals in the last league season, punishes such transitional phases.
The tempo profile suggests a draw in the first half. In 80% of Osasuna’s games, fewer than 1.5 goals were scored before the break, while Madrid scored in only two of their last five games in the first half. Added to this is an extremely short preparation period with only one real test in Tyrol, which ended 0-4, often leading to a tentative start. Interestingly, the games then turn around, with Osasuna scoring in 100% of second halves and Madrid in 80%, which supports our over 1.5 goals in the second half prediction.
The sporting context fits in with this: Xabi Alonso is making his league debut at the Bernabéu, Real’s start to the season has been strong, but the personnel situation in midfield and the minimal testing leave room for Osasuna to remain compact for long periods, with captain Kike Barja in form, the nimble Víctor Muñoz and the option of three center backs. Tight at first, then open, this setting makes all four tips plausible.
Real Form & Record Check
Across all competitions, Real have made a mixed start under Xabi Alonso. In the Club World Cup, they beat Pachuca 3-1, Salzburg 3-0, Juventus 1-0 and Dortmund 3-2 before their 4-0 defeat to PSG put a stop to the euphoria. In Innsbruck, the dress rehearsal looked more structured, with Mbappé’s influence evident in the 4-0 win at WSG Tirol and Arda Güler providing moments that look like more is to come.
There is a noticeable tendency towards high-scoring games and goals after the break. At the same time, early turnovers and defensive lapses against top counter-attackers like PSG exposed weaknesses. Interestingly, Tchouaméni often drops between the center backs, with Alexander-Arnold and Álvaro Carreras providing width, which brings pace but requires cover. Huijsen looks mature in the opening stages, and Alonso could switch to a more conservative 4-4-2 at times.
Vinícius failed to get a shot on goal in the Tyrol test, but that could simply be a matter of rhythm. Bellingham and Camavinga are missing, which means that Güler, Ceballos, and the axis around Tchouaméni will be called upon. Real are 13th in the table before kick-off, level on points with Betis and Sevilla. The club usually do well in opening games, most recently drawing 1-1 at Son Moix.
Our prediction is that Madrid could start in a 4-2-2-2 formation again. Courtois in goal, behind him Carvajal, Rüdiger, Huijsen, and Carreras. Tchouaméni and Valverde as a stable double six, Güler and Rodrygo in the half-spaces, Mbappé up front with Vinicius. Interestingly, Tchouaméni often drops back in build-up play, with the wing-backs pushing high. Carvajal looks slightly ahead of Alexander-Arnold, with Carreras complementing Vinicius with runs out wide.
Important to note, this is a possible lineup, not a confirmation. Camavinga and Bellingham are still out, which gives Güler more freedom between the lines. Valverde came back injured recently, so Ceballos remains an option if he’s not fit enough. Basically, Xabi’s idea remains consistent: to provide width and stability with two strikers and aggressive full-backs.
Osasuna Form & Record Check
Osasuna comes into the game in solid form in the league. Their last five LaLiga games have yielded a 2-0 win against Atlético and a 2-0 win against Espanyol, plus a 1-1 draw at Betis and most recently a 1-1 draw in Vitoria. In between, there was a 2-4 defeat at Villarreal. Goals have often come after the break, with tough first halves. Four of the five games have seen fewer than 2.5 goals, but there have always been at least two.
The two clean-sheet wins against tough opponents are positive signs, indicating structure and a more solid defense in the penalty area. Game management remains a critical issue, as demonstrated by the late goal conceded at Alavés’ Mendizorroza, and they also falter in open games such as the one in Villarreal. One could be forgiven for thinking that the team is a late bloomer, as they have scored in all five games after the break and have not lost a second half.
Tactically, Alessio Lisci is building flexibility, including the option of playing with three center backs. The club is still looking for defensive depth, with Azpilicueta and St. Juste being topics of discussion and Iker Benito missing. Kike Barja is the new captain, Víctor Muñoz is pushing for a place in the team, and Raúl García de Haro scored three goals in preseason. Budimir remains a fixture. Osasuna formally starts in 10th place without any points, but the gaps still seem insignificant.
Our prediction: Osasuna will stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation. Herrera in goal, Rosier, Boyomo, Catena and Cruz at the back. Torró will play alongside Muñoz in the double pivot, with Oroz in front of them as the link-up player, the summer signing on the right wing and García on the left. Budimir will lead the line up front. That’s one possible line-up, but last-minute changes are conceivable.
There are many indications that there will be a lot of crosses and second balls for Budimir, with Oroz between the lines. Benito is still out, which will affect the wing rotation. Barja has impressed in pre-season, and Moi Gómez is also an option as a starter. Lisci could switch to a back three at times, but we expect the usual back four to start.
H2H Real – Osasuna Head-to-head & statistics
Real have won four of the last five direct encounters, with one draw. The most recent meeting ended 1-1 in Pamplona in February 2025, following a 4-0 win in Madrid in November 2024. Real have a clear goal difference of 15-4 over the five games.
The draw was preceded by a series of four wins. Madrid led at half-time in all five games and scored in the first half in each, which usually sets the tone. There were always more than 1.5 goals, and more than 2.5 in four games. In the second half, there were at least two goals in four games.
In Madrid, there were 4-0 wins in 2024 and 2023, plus a 2-1 win in the cup in 2023. Away in Pamplona, there was a 2-4 defeat in 2024 and a 1-1 draw in February 2025. Interestingly, Real’s attacking pattern seems stable, even if there has been a slight dip away from home recently.
