Marcelino will make history at the Santiago Bernabéu when he reaches Manuel Pellegrini’s record of 259 games as Villarreal coach. On Saturday evening, Real Madrid welcomes Villarreal CF for the eighth matchday of the Primera División, with the table looking as tight as it could possibly be: Los Blancos are in second place with 18 points, just one point behind Barcelona, while Villarreal are third with 16 points, only two points behind. The bookmakers see Real Madrid as clear favorites, although the visitors are in excellent form after four consecutive league wins. The last meeting in March ended in a 2-1 away win for Real Madrid, and the head-to-head matches in recent years have always been high-scoring and competitive, with Madrid winning three of the last five encounters. Both teams will be without key players: Real Madrid are missing several defenders, while Villarreal will have to do without Gerard Moreno.
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Date and time: October 4, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 8)
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid are riding an impressive wave of momentum. After a tough 5-2 loss to Atlético in the derby a week ago, the team is back on track. Four wins in the last five games speak for themselves. The recent 5-0 win over Kairat Almaty in the Champions League was a showcase for Mbappé, who scored a perfect hat trick. The previous 4-1 win at Levante already indicated that the team’s offensive power had stabilized. Their accuracy is remarkable: Real has scored before halftime in all five of their most recent matches. The team shows exceptional strength in the second half with an 80 percent success rate in wins after the break, which points to effective tactical adjustments. Güler was named the best young player of September and confirms the technical class of the squad with his passing accuracy. With 18 points, Real is only one point behind Barcelona in second place, while the lead over Villarreal is only two points.
Real Madrid are likely to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation, although they have significant personnel problems to solve. Right-backs Alexander-Arnold and Carvajal, as well as Rüdiger and Mendy, are all out with injuries, which significantly weakens the defense. In central defense, the young duo of Asencio and Huijsen could get a chance, while García would play on the left and Alaba would possibly act as a sweeper. The midfield with Tchouaméni and Valverde and the offense around Güler, Bellingham, and the striking duo of Vinicius Junior and Mbappé are likely to line up as expected. The absences are forcing a rotation that could well affect the tactical structure.
Villarreal Form & Record Check
Villarreal is enjoying a solid run in third place with 16 points. After three consecutive wins in the league, the team recently picked up an important point against Juventus in the Champions League. The 2-2 draw against the Italians was highly dramatic: after Mikautadze’s early lead, Juventus turned the game around before Renato Veiga scored the deserved equalizer in the 89th minute. Villarreal’s pattern in the first halves is striking: the team practically never concedes more than one goal before the break, but develops significantly more offensive power after the break. In four out of five games, the Yellow Submarine scored in the second half, which underlines Marcelino’s tactical adjustments at half-time. Personnel concerns remain an issue: Gerard Moreno and Ayoze Pérez are still out, while Logan Costa and Kambwala are long-term absentees. The recent league win against Athletic Bilbao, thanks to Moleiro’s late winner, showed the depth of the squad. The team looks well-rehearsed and compact, even if their Champions League debut against Tottenham began with a 0-1 defeat.
Marcelino is likely to field his usual 4-3-3 formation, but will still have to do without key regulars. Gerard Moreno and Ayoze Pérez are out with injuries, which significantly limits the offensive options. Costa and Kambwala are long-term absentees in central defense. Arnau Tenas could once again be given the nod between the posts after making his league debut recently. The back four is likely to consist of Altimira, Marín, Renato Veiga, and Pedraza. Parejo, Comesaña, and Gueye are expected to start in midfield, with Parejo looking to make amends after his mistake against Juventus. Up front, Mikautadze could play as center forward, flanked by Pépé and Buchanan. Moleiro, who recently scored as a substitute against Athletic, will start on the bench. Of course, this lineup remains speculative until the official announcement.
H2H Real – Villarreal Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head matches of the last two seasons paint a clear picture: Real Madrid dominates with three wins to Villarreal’s one. The spectacular 4-4 draw in May 2024 remains the only point split in this series. Madrid led at halftime in four of the last five encounters, and this early dominance seems to be a trademark of Los Blancos against the Yellow Submarine. Only in the surprising 2-3 defeat in April 2023 did Real fall behind early. The goal statistics speak for themselves: Madrid scored in all five games, but also conceded at least one goal in the last three encounters. Villarreal only failed to score in the 2-0 defeat in October 2024. The consistency in the total number of goals is remarkable: all five games ended with at least two goals, three of them even with four or more. The most recent match in March 2025 confirmed Madrid’s strength away from home with a narrow 2-1 win, which was already the second consecutive victory for Los Blancos after their clear 4-1 home win in December 2023.
The first tip, “Real Madrid to win the second half,” is based on Mbappé’s impressive goal ratio of eight goals in six games and Madrid’s record of winning four of the last five second halves. Interestingly, the visitors have conceded goals after the break in four of their last five games, which supports this approach. The double chance X2 at 2.6 is justified by Madrid’s personnel problems in defense, where four regulars are missing: Rüdiger, Mendy, Alexander-Arnold, and Carvajal. Villarreal has remained unbeaten in four of five away games against top teams and could exploit this period of weakness, especially since Atlético was successful with a similar tactic last week. The riskiest bet on “Villarreal to win the second half” at 4.8 speculates that Marcelino’s energetic bench will make the decisive difference after Madrid conceded four goals after the break in their last two league games.
