Kylian Mbappé is chasing a club record at the Bernabéu as Real Madrid host Celta de Vigo on Sunday in La Liga matchday 15. Madrid are in second place with 36 points, just one point behind Barcelona, while Celta are in twelfth place with 16 points, reflecting very different season goals and clear momentum ahead of this match. Real are coming off a convincing 3-0 win at Athletic Bilbao, which ended a three-game winless streak. Mbappé shone with two goals and an assist, bringing his tally to 55 competitive goals in the 2025 calendar year and leaving him four short of Cristiano Ronaldo’s club record of 59. In La Liga, he has scored 16 goals and provided four assists in 15 appearances since January, putting him well ahead of the competition’s second-highest scorer.
However, Madrid’s situation is not entirely rosy, as Trent Alexander-Arnold and Eduardo Camavinga suffered ankle sprains at San Mamés, with early reports suggesting that Alexander-Arnold could be out until the end of December. With Dani Carvajal already out, Xabi Alonso faces a tricky selection dilemma on the right side of defense, especially with the important Champions League clash with Manchester City coming up. On the other side, Celta’s situation looks much more precarious. The team struggled to advance in the Copa del Rey against fourth-division side Sant Andreu after a 1-1 draw and a tough penalty shootout, with Carlos Domínguez receiving a late red card, and the encounter is likely to have taken its toll on the team both physically and mentally. In La Liga, it is their form at Balaídos that is particularly worrying, with the 0-1 home defeat to Espanyol extending their winless run at home to eight games. Celta have been more stable away from home, picking up wins at Alavés and Real Valladolid, but a trip to the Bernabéu is a completely different test. The recent head-to-head record clearly favors Real Madrid, with all five of the most recent encounters going to Los Blancos, including a 3-2 win at the Bernabéu in May, a 5-2 win in the Copa del Rey in January, and a 2-1 away win in October 2024. Celta failed to score in four of those five games at halftime, with Madrid often laying the foundation with strong attacking phases after the break. Accordingly, the bookmakers see Real as clear favorites with an implied chance of winning of over 70%. The home side is expected to control possession and create the majority of clear chances, while Celta will have to stay in the game through intensity, defensive discipline, and efficient counterattacks.
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Date and time: 07.12.2025, 21:00
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 15)
Although the betting markets rate Real Madrid as clear favorites with odds of around 1.30, there are a few scenarios that could offer a little more value. Of particular interest are Madrid leading at halftime, the option “Both teams to score: Yes,” and an increased probability of multiple goals after the break, when Real will increase the pressure and Celta will have to chase the game.
In the first half, Madrid’s tendency to start quickly and Mbappé’s recent gala performance in Bilbao suggest that the home side will take an early lead. A market such as half-time/full-time in favor of Real or, more specifically, Real Madrid leading at half-time may therefore be more interesting than simply betting on Real Madrid to win. Both teams to score: Yes also seems plausible, as Celta, led by Borja Iglesias, regularly finds the way to goal despite defensive problems. Even if Real has a lot of possession, Celta’s goal threat ensures that BTTS remains a plausible scenario, especially if Madrid rotates or opens up counter-attacking space when in possession. Added to this is the dynamic of the second half, with Real often dominating tired opponents in the closing stages, while Celta pushes forward when they are behind. This argues in favor of over 1.5 goals in the second half or even markets for total goals over 2.5, with the focus of the action after the break. In practical terms, this could be reflected in a risk-aware approach as follows: a small bet on Real Madrid leading at halftime, a medium bet on both teams scoring, plus a small bet on over 1.5 goals in the second half or a combination of both teams scoring and Real Madrid winning for higher odds. Asian lines such as a -1 handicap for Real Madrid are only really interesting if the odds increase significantly, whereas larger bets on the simple match outcome at around 1.30 offer little leeway.
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid goes into this game on a run of five competitive games without defeat, with three draws against Rayo, Elche, and Girona in the league, as well as clear wins, such as the 3-0 in Bilbao and the spectacular 4-3 against Olympiacos. The team consistently creates chances and scores regularly, with Real scoring at least one goal in around 80% of their most recent games, and games with over 1.5 goals occurring at a similarly high frequency. At the same time, defensive lapses and a sometimes lack of killer instinct in certain phases are costing them important points.
This has resulted in a few key areas for improvement. On the one hand, points have been lost against nominally weaker opponents due to low intensity or careless performances, as exemplified by the 0-0 draw against Rayo and the 2-2 draw against Elche. On the other hand, there is a certain vulnerability in defense, as evidenced by three goals conceded away at Olympiacos and goals conceded in games that were actually clearly under control. As there are currently no major injury problems, much of this seems to be of a tactical or mental nature, with dominance not being converted into wins consistently enough. In the short term, Xabi Alonso could make several changes, such as stabilizing the defense with a more compact midfield, reducing the gaps between the midfield and the back four, and bringing on a clearly defensive-minded defensive midfielder earlier when the lead is narrow. Set pieces and transition situations lend themselves to targeted training sessions, with clear assignments for second balls, clean zonal coverage, and better protection of the near post to avoid simple goals. In addition, sharper game management with a clearer plan against deep blocks, for example via inverted fullbacks and overloads in the half-spaces, and with targeted rotation, fresh wingers, and defensive substitutions at the right time to secure leads, will help. If Real can combine their offensive power with more defensive concentration and clean game management, draws should become wins more often and the pressure on Barcelona should remain high. If, on the other hand, the defensive and mental weaknesses remain, the team will remain vulnerable to dropping points against mid-table teams, making the title race unnecessarily unstable.
Real Madrid are expected to go into this game with a 4-3-3 formation. There are no reported injuries or suspensions, so the coaching staff should have the entire squad at their disposal. This depth allows for continuity in the selection, even if the final starting eleven has not yet been decided. Given the depth of the squad, rotation is always possible, depending on the tactical plan and workload management.
Vigo Form & Record Check
Celta is going through an unpleasant phase of inconsistency, especially at home. The 0-1 defeat to Espanyol extended their winless streak at Balaídos to eight home games and saw the Galicians slip to 12th place in the table with 16 points. Against Espanyol, they lacked intensity for long periods, and in the second half, the team collapsed and conceded the decisive goal late on from a set piece.
Similar patterns are also evident on the international stage. A 3-2 defeat at Ludogorets ended a run of six wins from seven competitive games and once again highlighted the team’s defensive fragility, even if talents such as Jones El-Abdellaoui are giving cause for hope in attack with his first goal at professional level. Wednesday’s Copa del Rey match at fourth-division Sant Andreu almost turned into a debacle, with Celta falling behind early in extra time, needing Borja Iglesias’ equalizer in the 106th minute and only prevailing 7-6 on penalties. Carlos Domínguez was sent off in the 113th minute but will be available on Sunday. The underlying figures paint a difficult picture: in the last five games, Celta has never been in the lead at half-time, and around 80% of these games have seen less than 1.5 goals per half. More and more often, experienced strikers such as Iago Aspas and Borja Iglesias have to intervene late in the game instead of the team finding control and pace early on. Nevertheless, there are some cautiously positive signs. The 1-0 away win at Alavés shows that results can be achieved on the road, and the Europa League run was encouraging until the recent defeat. Overall, however, their position in the middle of the table remains precarious. Defensively, they need to be much more compact and start at a higher tempo to avoid slipping further down the table, especially as Celta have taken only one point from their last eight visits to the Bernabéu.
Under Claudio Giráldez, a 4-2-3-1 system is to be expected. In the predicted starting lineup, Villar will be in goal, with Mingueza, Starfelt, Aidoo, and Ristic in the back four from right to left. In front of them, Beltrán and Sotelo will form the double six. Hugo Álvarez is expected to play on the right, captain Iago Aspas in the center behind the striker, and Bryan Zaragoza on the left, with Borja Iglesias starting as center forward. No new injuries have been reported, but due to the busy schedule, rotation is conceivable, especially on the wings and in central midfield, where Hugo Álvarez, Bryan Zaragoza, Beltrán, and Sotelo could rotate before kickoff.
Real – Vigo Head-to-head comparison & statistics
Real Madrid have clearly dominated recent head-to-head encounters, winning five of the last five meetings since 2023, with a total score of 15-5, averaging 3.0 goals per game in favor of Los Blancos. Particularly memorable are the 3-2 win at the Bernabéu in May 2025 and the 5-2 win after extra time in the Copa del Rey in January 2025.
There was a clear pattern in the early stages of these games, with four of the five matches seeing fewer than 1.5 goals in the first half. Celta did not score in any of these games at halftime, while Real Madrid scored in four of these first halves and mostly controlled the early stages. The second 45 minutes were much more prolific, with over 2.5 goals after the break in each of the last three encounters, and Real scoring in all five second halves, underlining their tendency to break down Celta’s resistance as the game progresses. These trends suggest short-term markets such as under 1.5 goals in the first half, Real Madrid to score in the second half, or over 1.5 goals in the second half, although past results are no guarantee of future performance. Furthermore, these observations are based solely on the five encounters between 2023 and 2025. Squad changes, injuries, the respective competitive context, and current form must always be taken into account before these patterns are incorporated into decisions.
