Real Madrid welcomes Valencia to the Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday in a clash of opposites. While Los Blancos lead the table by five points after their 2-1 victory in El Clásico, Valencia are fighting for survival in La Liga in 18th place. The visitors are winless in five league games, most recently suffering a 2-0 defeat to Villarreal, but they were able to boost their confidence with a 5-0 win over fourth-division Maracena in the Copa del Rey.
The form curve clearly favors Real: The Madrid side looks stable, and Jude Bellingham is back in top form just in time. Valencia, on the other hand, are in deep crisis, even if their clear cup victory at least proved their scoring threat once again. Psychologically, Real go into the game as clear favorites, while Valencia need every point in the relegation battle.
Interestingly, the last meeting at the Bernabéu ended in a surprise 2-1 win for Valencia. At least three goals have been scored in each of the last five encounters, with Valencia scoring in every one of those games. It is also striking that Real were behind at half-time in many of those games, a pattern that the Madrid side will be keen to break this time around.
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Date and time: 01.11.2025, 21:00
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 11)
Bookmakers see Real Madrid as clear favorites with odds of around 1.20 for a home win. This seems justified given their five consecutive wins and Valencia’s relegation spot. An interesting option is a Real win in the second half, as Los Blancos have won around 80% of their recent second halves and Valencia have conceded goals after the break in each of their last two encounters.
Statistics also point to over 2.5 goals: Madrid has scored at least two goals in around 70% of its recent home games and has scored in all of its recent matches. Valencia has shown defensive weaknesses; 80% of the visitors’ last five matches have had more than 1.5 goals. The combination of the hosts’ offensive strength and the visitors’ fragile defense makes this bet attractive. Based on the head-to-head history, “both teams to score” is also a plausible option.
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid sits atop the table with 27 points after ten matchdays, five points ahead of Barcelona. The team’s current run of five consecutive competitive wins has given them enormous confidence; the latest highlight was the 2-1 win in El Clásico, where Mbappé gave them an early lead, Fermín López equalized, and Bellingham secured the victory with an assist and a goal. The match ended turbulently when Lunin was shown a red card after a late save.
A trend has emerged in the course of the game: in four of the last five encounters, Real scored most of their goals in the second half; only against Barcelona did both goals come before the break. Jude Bellingham seems to be back in impressive form after overcoming fitness problems, as his 53 actions in the Clásico underline. Tactically, Xabi Alonso is experimenting flexibly and surprisingly deployed Camavinga on the right against Barcelona to stabilize the midfield.
However, Real has to cope with setbacks in terms of personnel: Dani Carvajal is out for two to three months after knee surgery, and Rüdiger is still missing with a muscle injury. This puts Trent Alexander-Arnold more in the spotlight for the right-back position.
Real Madrid are expected to line up in their usual 4-3-3 formation, but will be without Rüdiger (thigh injury) and Carvajal (knee surgery). David Alaba and Éder Militão could start together in central defense, while Trent Alexander-Arnold takes over on the right side of defense. Thibaut Courtois will be in goal.
The central midfield will consist of Aurélien Tchouaméni, Federico Valverde, and Jude Bellingham, who recently shone with a goal and an assist in El Clásico. In attack, Alonso will rely on the trio of Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, and Rodrygo. Endrick will remain an option on the bench for now, despite interest from Olympique Lyon for a winter loan.
Valencia Form & Record Check
Valencia is in the midst of an acute crisis: no wins in its last five league games, only 9 points from 10 games and 18th place, level on points with Real Sociedad and two points ahead of Oviedo. The latest league results: 0-2 against Villarreal, 0-0 in Alavés, 1-2 against Girona and 1-2 against Oviedo.
In the Copa del Rey on Monday, they secured a clear 5-0 win against fourth-division side Maracena, with Duro, Raba, López, Rioja, and Danjuma all on the scoresheet. Whether this resounding victory marks a turning point remains to be seen; their league form continues to be a cause for concern. A noticeable pattern: Valencia look weak in the first halves — in the last five games, they have never scored more than one goal before the break. The second halves are usually more goal-rich, but often in favor of the opponents.
Coach Corberán will have to do without Diakhaby (muscle injury, expected to return in mid-November) and Ramazani (also muscle injury). The trip to the Santiago Bernabéu comes at the worst possible time; Valencia desperately needs points in the relegation battle.
Valencia are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation: Dimitrievski in goal, with Correia, Cömert, Copete, and Gayà in front of him in a back four. Pepelu and Santamaria form the double six, while López, Almeida, and Danjuma are expected to provide attacking impetus. Hugo Duro leads the attack.
Personnel problems weigh heavily: Ramazani is out for at least another week with a muscle injury, and Diakhaby is also out with an injury. This weakens the offensive flexibility. Guerra, Ugrinic, and Beltrán are on the bench as possible alternatives. With the double six, Valencia wants to gain defensive stability, but must find creative solutions via the wings or set pieces.
Real – Valencia Head-to-head & statistics
The recent record between Real Madrid and Valencia is evenly balanced: in the last five meetings, there have been two wins for each team and one draw. Real conceded at least one goal in all five games, while Valencia also scored in every game.
The results: April this year 1-2 home defeat for Real, May 2023 0-1 away defeat, November 2023 5-1 win at the Bernabéu, January 2025 2-1 away win for Real, April 2025 another 1-2 home defeat. The half-time situation is particularly striking: Valencia led at half-time in four of the five games, meaning Real often found themselves behind early on.
The second half then tended to favor the Madrid side, who scored after the break in four of the five encounters. 80% of the games ended with at least three goals. These statistics increase the likelihood that both teams will score and that there will again be a game with at least three goals. Despite Real’s historical role as favorites, the head-to-head record remains even, making the encounters unpredictable but usually entertaining.
