Key Facts
- Real go into the game in second place (45), just four points behind Barça and four ahead of Villarreal – a slip-up would have an immediate effect on the table.
- Levante are 19th with 14 points, just three behind Valencia and one ahead of Oviedo; under Castro, every point counts in the tight relegation battle.
- In their last five games, Real have won three without a draw, always scoring before the break, but conceding in four games – despite a 2-0 win over Sevilla and a 5-1 win over Betis.
- With Militão, Rüdiger, Mendy, and Alexander Arnold out and Mbappé likely to be sidelined again, it will be difficult for Madrid to keep a clean sheet with their makeshift defense.
- In the 1-1 draw with Espanyol, Losada struck back immediately after falling behind; without Brugué and Elgezabal, Morales remains the most important reference point when switching play.
- The head-to-head record is high-scoring: Madrid scored early in all of the last five encounters; at odds of 1.2, a home win is considered a certainty, with the tips seeing more value in BTTS and over 3.5.
The Copa del Rey shock in Albacete, Álvaro Arbeloa’s 3-2 debut, still haunts Real Madrid, and now, of all times, the next must-win game awaits at the Bernabéu when Levante UD visits on Saturday, January 17, for the 20th matchday of La Liga. Arbeloa is still looking for the right rhythm on the Madrid bench, while Luís Castro has recently made Levante look more compact and clinical. The situation in the table is clear: Madrid are second with 45 points, four behind Barcelona and only four ahead of Villarreal, while Levante are 19th with 14 points, three behind Valencia. Despite four league wins in their last five games, tension is mounting because important building blocks are missing at the back. Militão and Rüdiger are out, and Mbappé is expected to miss out again due to knee problems. Levante are coming off a 1-1 draw with Espanyol, still without Brugué, and Castro has an additional option for midfield in the form of loan player Raghouber. The two sides met in September, with Madrid winning 4-1 in Valencia, and it is often these fixtures that produce high-scoring games. However, Levante has a habit of catching Madrid on their weaker weeks, including a 2-1 win here in 2021, and Morales remains the main threat up front. For Real, it’s about keeping Barcelona within reach, while for Levante, it’s about getting out of the bottom three, even if the bookmakers are clearly leaning towards a home win.
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Date and time: January 17, 2026, 2:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 20)
The bookmakers see Madrid as clear favorites at home (odds around 1.2) – which is in line with the starting position, as Vinicius and Bellingham should be able to roll over a Levante team near the bottom of the table, even after their Copa exit against Albacete and the turmoil surrounding Arbeloa, even if they seem more alert under Castro. Interestingly, the value lies more in the goals anyway: without Militão, Rüdiger, and Mendy, and with Mbappé out, Madrid can score, but they could also concede at the back. Therefore, “Both teams to score: Yes” and “Over 3.5 goals” remain realistic options.
Real Form & Record Check
Across all competitions, Real’s recent run has been impressive but uneven: three wins from their last five games, no draws, and a goal in every game, each before the break. The league wins against Sevilla (2-0) and Betis (5-1) showed the best version of the team, with quick circulation in the penalty area and clinical finishing. However, there is concern that they often lose control later on, conceding goals in four of those five games. In Saudi Arabia, they narrowly beat Atlético Madrid 2-1, but lost the Super Cup final 3-2 to Barcelona because they were too open on the counter and their management of the game was not up to their usual standard. This was followed by the Copa del Rey shock in Albacete, again a 3-2 defeat, with heavy legs, loose marking, a late equalizer that was immediately squandered. In La Liga, everything is still possible: Real are second with 45 points, four behind Barcelona and four ahead of Villarreal, so a slip-up could go either way.
The defense is depleted with Militão, Rüdiger, Mendy, and Alexander Arnold all missing, and Mbappé is also likely to sit out against Levante due to knee problems. It’s quite possible that Real’s pace before the break will continue to be the deciding factor, but clean sheets are currently harder to secure.
Arbeloa is likely to stick with a 4-3-3 formation, with Lunin as the probable number one behind Carvajal, Asencio, Huijsen, and García. The midfield trio of Valverde, Tchouaméni, and Bellingham will set the pace, with Tchouaméni providing cover and Bellingham popping up between the lines. Up front, Güler is expected to start on the right, García in the center, and Vinicius on the left.
Levante form & record check
Levante travels to the Bernabéu in 19th place with 14 points, but under Luís Castro, the mood has noticeably changed. It’s tight at the top, with Valencia just three points ahead and Oviedo one point behind, so every little bit of progress counts. In La Liga, they continue to be inconsistent, but recently they have looked more organized and determined, taking a step forward without resorting to blind actionism. The 1-1 draw against Espanyol was in keeping with this new bite, first conceding, then immediately striking back through Losada, and playing without fear for long periods. Before that, the 3-0 win in Seville was their most complete performance of the season, ruthless in transition and much more compact. The issue remains consistency, as points at home have continued to be rare. If you zoom out further, you can see the inconsistency. The 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad was solid defensively, but there was a lack of drive in the final third. The 2-0 defeat in Osasuna revealed how quickly Levante can be stifled when their pressing doesn’t work. The 0-1 defeat in the Copa del Rey at Cultural Leonesa was particularly frustrating, a tough evening with no real way out. The numbers point to close games: in four of the last five, the first half remained under 1.5 goals, and the game as a whole ended under 2.5, yet Levante conceded in four of those five games. Interestingly, they haven’t lost a second half during this phase, which speaks for better game management. With Elgezabal and Brugué out, Castro could rely more on Raghouber, while there is noticeable market noise around Arriaga and Eyong.
Castro is likely to stick with his familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, with Ryan probably behind a back four of Toljan, Dela, Moreno, and Pampín. With Elgezabal out, the center-back pairing seems like the most obvious choice, and the full-backs will be expected to push forward consistently to spread the play. Rey and Martínez seem likely to start as the double six, providing balance and the first line of build-up. In front of them, Losada and Álvarez will work between the lines, while Morales will tuck in from the left and can become an important outlet for Levante’s quick transitions. Romero would be the obvious choice up front, although Eyong is a reliable alternative if Castro wants to see more deep runs behind the back line. Brugué remains sidelined, and Arriaga’s thigh problem could open up minutes for Raghouber or Vencedor.
Real – Levante Head-to-head & Statistics
Real Madrid has the upper hand in the last five encounters, with three wins, one draw, and one Levante victory. The most recent meeting in September 2025 ended 4-1 away for Madrid. Before that, the series was quite uneven: 6-0 for Madrid in 2022, a 3-3 draw in 2021, and Levante’s surprise 2-1 win in 2021. Madrid also won 2-0 at Levante in 2020. Goals have been something of a constant. Madrid has scored in all five games and has been successful before the break every time, a run of five games that shapes expectations. In contrast, Levante has conceded a goal in the first half in all five encounters. Every game had more than 1.5 total goals, four out of five had more than 2.5, with only the 2-0 win in 2020 falling short. Interestingly, Madrid led at halftime in four out of five games. These patterns could play a role again, especially since Madrid is currently struggling defensively: Militão is out, as are Rüdiger, Mendy, and Alexander Arnold, so clean control is not guaranteed. Nevertheless, a direct comparison shows that Madrid usually takes control early on, which suits runners like Vinicius Junior and Mbappé. Levante will be without Elgezabal and Brugué, which reduces their options for withstanding early pressure. Ryan could have a busy first half if the trend continues.
