A title-less 2025, a seemingly squandered lead over Barcelona, and now the pressure to respond at the Bernabéu—against this backdrop, Real Madrid’s clash with Real Betis seems like more than just a regular match on matchday 18. Real Madrid return to La Liga action on Sunday, sitting in second place with 42 points, four behind Barcelona, while Betis are sixth with 28 points and have their sights firmly set on European qualification. However, the recent history of this fixture does not suggest it will be quite so straightforward. Betis beat Madrid 2-1 in March, and none of the last five meetings have produced more than three goals. Pellegrini’s side also travel with momentum after a 4-0 win over Getafe, while Madrid’s 2-0 win over Sevilla was overshadowed by Mbappé’s knee injury. From an Andalusian perspective, these absences feel like a real opportunity to cause an upset at the Bernabéu. For Madrid, it’s about regrouping after a title-less 2025 and a late slump in form at the end of the year that turned a five-point lead over Barcelona into a four-point deficit. Betis are looking solid, if not spectacular, and have coped reasonably well with Isco’s long absence and defensive injuries, and with Cucho Hernández leading the line, a positive result in Madrid would significantly sharpen their push for Europe.
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Date and time: January 4, 2026, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 18)
With odds favoring Real Madrid as hosts at around 1.5, our tips are looking for value in the profiles of both teams. Madrid’s defense, which has to do without Militão, Carvajal, and Alexander-Arnold and has conceded goals in four consecutive games, looks vulnerable, while the offense has to reorganize itself without Mbappé. On the other side is a Betis team that, despite missing Isco, Amrabat, and Abde, is reliably finishing through Cucho Hernández.
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid resume La Liga in second place with 42 points, four points behind leaders Barcelona and five ahead of Atlético Madrid, which sums up their inconsistent year well. October’s Clasico seemed like a turning point, but a poor run in November and early December saw a five-point lead turn into a chasing role. In recent weeks, there have been signs of stabilization, but Xabi Alonso’s team still feels like it is not quite living up to expectations. Before the winter break, Madrid recorded three consecutive wins in different competitions. In the 2-1 win at Alaves in La Liga, the team showed character, although they again conceded easy chances in the closing stages. A significantly changed lineup won 3-2 at CF Talavera in the Copa del Rey, in a game that was much more chaotic than Alonso would have liked. The most convincing result was the 2-0 home win against Sevilla, which Madrid largely controlled after Bellingham scored and Marcao was sent off. These successes were preceded by two painful home defeats that highlighted Madrid’s fragility. The 2-0 defeat to Celta Vigo in La Liga exposed problems in transition and a worrying lack of intensity between the lines. Days later, Manchester City won 2-1 at the Bernabéu in the Champions League group stage, a game in which Madrid kept pace but looked a step behind City’s structure and pressing. Statistically, the picture is clear. In their last five games in all competitions, Madrid have scored and conceded in 80% of games, with every game ending with more than one and a half goals in total and not a single draw. Interestingly, Alonso’s teams seem to focus on penetration rather than control, often starting aggressively, scoring early, but exposing their defense and goalkeeper to waves of attacks. Personnel problems continue to affect this form. Mbappé has been outstanding, with 18 goals in the league and 29 in all competitions, but his knee sprain will deprive Madrid of their most important playmaker in the coming weeks. Bellingham remains crucial, as was evident against Sevilla, even if his influence has waned somewhat recently. Vinicius is caught between contract rumors and boos, while injuries to Militão, Alexander-Arnold, Carvajal, and Valverde limit Alonso’s options. There is also talk about Rodrygo’s future. Against this backdrop, Madrid’s current form seems somewhat below what a team of this caliber and price should deliver. Second place with a goal difference of 20 keeps them firmly in the title race, but they are relying heavily on individual moments from their stars rather than collective fluidity. The defeat to Manchester City in the Champions League group stage reinforced the impression that they still have steps to take at the highest level.
Real Madrid are likely to stick with their previously projected 4-2-3-1 formation, although nothing has been confirmed. In this predicted starting eleven, Courtois starts behind a back four of Asencio, Rüdiger, Huijsen, and García, with Tchouameni and Camavinga forming the double six. Bellingham will play centrally, Güler and Vinicius will occupy the wings, and Rodrygo will lead the line while Mbappé recovers from a knee sprain. Defensive absences mean that this predicted defense looks somewhat improvised. With Carvajal and Alexander-Arnold out injured, Asencio could take over the right-back role, while Militão is out for the long term. Further forward, Valverde is out with an injury and Díaz is away with his national team, so in this system the creative burden falls mainly on Bellingham and Güler, supported by Ceballos and the young Mastantuono from the bench.
Betis Form & Record Check
Real Betis travel to the Bernabéu in unspectacular but stable form. They are sixth in La Liga with 28 points and a goal difference of 10, five points behind Espanyol and five ahead of Celta Vigo. They have taken points from four of their last five league games, while their last five games in all competitions have yielded three wins, one draw, and one defeat. The 3-5 home defeat to Barcelona once again exposed their limitations when games become chaotic in their own penalty area. Since then, however, the reaction has been positive. A 3-1 away win at Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League and a controlled 2-0 victory at Real Murcia in the Copa del Rey were followed by a tactical 0-0 draw at Rayo Vallecano in the league, before the team took apart Getafe with a dominant 4-0 win. Statistically, their recent games remain open. Four of the last five encounters have seen at least two goals, and Betis have scored in 80% of those games, often in the first half. It could be that Manuel Pellegrini has shifted the balance slightly in favor of greater aggression in the final third, which suits players such as Antony, Fornals, Ruibal, and Cucho Hernández. However, the context remains challenging. Betis will have to cope without Isco, who is not expected to return before March, and they will be without Amrabat, Abde, and Bakambu due to international commitments, while Junior Firpo and Diego Llorente are out with injuries. Cucho Hernández is the clear reference point up front, and with Chimy Ávila and Bakambu considered candidates for departure, the search for Fabio Silva or Evan Ferguson suggests that there are doubts about how sustainable this form is in attack.
Real Betis will probably stick to their predicted 4-2-3-1 formation, with Valles in goal and a back four of Bellerín, Natan, Bartra, and Rodríguez. Roca and Deossa should secure the midfield, giving Manuel Pellegrini a relatively stable base in front of a defense that is already missing Llorente and Junior Firpo due to injury. Further forward, the trio of Antony, Fornals, and Riquelme behind Cucho Hernández would maintain the usual Betis structure, with Cucho continuing to be the clear target man in attack. The creative burden will shift even more to Fornals and Lo Celso, as Isco is out long term and Amrabat, Abde, and Bakambu are all unavailable due to international commitments. In any case, this remains a predicted starting eleven, not a confirmed line-up, and Pellegrini has the option of making adjustments, for example bringing in Lo Celso or Ruibal if he changes the system.
Real – Betis Head-to-head & Statistics
The last five league matches between Real Madrid and Real Betis Sevilla have been almost evenly balanced. Real Madrid have one win, Real Betis also have one, and there have been three draws. The overall record during this period is 4-3 in Madrid’s favor, which suggests a slight advantage in both offense and defense, but only by a very narrow margin. These encounters have been consistently close. All five ended with less than four goals in total, and four of them remained under 2.5. The total of seven goals over five games works out at 1.4 per game, so chances were generally limited. The first halves were particularly cautious, all ending in draws, with a clear tendency for under 1.5 goals before the break. Home advantage played a role. Real Madrid are unbeaten in their two meetings at the Bernabéu in 2024, with a 2-0 win and a 0-0 draw, and they have not conceded a goal there during that period. Real Betis are also unbeaten at home, with a 2-1 win in March 2025 and two draws, underlining how difficult both teams find it to win away against this opponent. In terms of sequence, the first three games of this series, spread across 2023 and 2024, all ended in draws, so there was a phase of three consecutive draws. This pattern was broken by Madrid’s 2-0 home win in 2024, which was then answered by Betis’ 2-1 response in March 2025. The recent trend therefore slightly favors clearer results, although the margins remain very small. For Xabi Alonso and Manuel Pellegrini, this recent history suggests a cautious script. It is quite conceivable that both will start with compact formations again, as neither side has shown clear dominance in this duel and the first halves have always been evenly matched. A possible advantage tomorrow is more likely to come from a small tactical change or a set piece than from an open game with lots of chances.
