Real Madrid comfortably leads La Liga with 30 points, but the trip to Estadio de Vallecas could be more complicated than the table suggests. The Royals, who are considered clear favorites by bookmakers with a 67 percent chance of winning, will have to do without key defensive stalwarts such as Rüdiger, Carvajal, Tchouaméni, and Alaba. Rayo Vallecano, currently tenth with 14 points, on the other hand, have a full squad to choose from and are coming off a spectacular comeback against Lech Poznań (3-2) in the Conference League. The special atmosphere in Vallecas, combined with Rayo’s home strength and Madrid’s personnel problems, could give this duel an unexpected twist. Precisely because the Royals appear to be struggling despite their status as favorites, it is worth considering alternatives before placing a bet.
- Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
- Date and time: 09.11.2025, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 12)
Real Madrid goes into the game as the clear favorite, with odds of around 1.5 for an away win reflecting the market assessment. However, defensive absences significantly weaken the back line. Rayo plays boldly on offense and has recorded both over 2.5 goals and goals from both teams in 80 percent of its recent games, which suggests a high-scoring game. From a betting perspective, several options appear interesting: A Real win remains logical, but carries risks due to the lack of defensive players. Over 2.5 goals seems particularly attractive, as Rayo scores and concedes regularly, while Madrid’s weakened defense could be vulnerable. Both teams to score (Yes) is also plausible, especially as Rayo has scored in around 80 percent of its recent games and Real has sufficient offensive quality despite personnel concerns. A combination bet of a Real win and over 2.5 goals increases the odds but also carries additional risk.
Rayo Form & Record Check
Rayo Vallecano is in inconsistent form. The dramatic 3-2 win against Lech Poznań demonstrated great mental strength and goal-scoring threat in the second half, while the recent 4-0 defeat at Villarreal revealed defensive vulnerabilities against technically strong opponents. With 14 points in 10th place, just one point behind ninth and level on points with Athletic Club, their position in the table is solid but not outstanding. The statistics show a clear pattern: four of their last five games have seen over 3.5 goals scored. Rayo often score in the second half, but at the same time regularly concede goals. Coach Iñigo Pérez has a full squad to choose from, even though Trejo, Pathé Ciss, Óscar Valentín, and Álvaro García picked up yellow cards against Poznań. The intense second half in the Conference League game could lead to rotations, especially since many regulars were only brought on at half-time.
Coach Iñigo Pérez is likely to return to the tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation for the home game against Real Madrid. Batalla will be in goal, with Balliu, Lejeune, Mumin, and Espino forming the back four. Valentín and López are expected to play in central midfield. Palazón, Trejo, and Álvaro García could form the attacking trio, with Camello leading the line. Pérez reacted at half-time in the Conference League game with four substitutions that turned the game around. Players such as De Frutos and Rațiu, who were dropped from the starting lineup at the time, bring fresh momentum and are likely to be important options off the bench against Madrid. With no significant injury concerns, the coach has a full squad to choose from. The depth of the squad could be decisive, especially as the team suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat at Villarreal after three consecutive league wins.
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid sits atop the table with a five-point lead over Barcelona. Four wins from the last five league games underscore their dominance, especially the 2-1 home win against Barcelona with Jude Bellingham as the match winner (one goal, one assist) and the impressive 4-0 win against Valencia. However, the recent 1-0 defeat at Liverpool in the Champions League, where Alexis Mac Allister scored with a header in the 61st minute and Thibaut Courtois made several strong saves beforehand, raises questions. After falling behind, the Madrid side looked unstructured. The personnel situation is causing Xabi Alonso headaches: Tchouaméni is out for about three weeks with a thigh injury, Antonio Rüdiger is also struggling with a thigh injury and is expected to return in mid-December, Dani Carvajal is out until the end of January with a knee injury, and David Alaba remains sidelined. Despite these absences, Madrid has improved statistically: in the second halves of the last five games, the team has never conceded more than one goal, and in four games, the defense has not conceded a single goal. With Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, and Rodrygo, the team continues to have exceptional offensive quality.
Carlo Ancelotti is likely to revert to his preferred 4-3-3 formation, which Real Madrid has used frequently and successfully this season. The biggest concern is in defense: Antonio Rüdiger is still out with a thigh injury, so Dean Huijsen is expected to start alongside Éder Militão in central defense. Aurélien Tchouaméni is still missing in central midfield. As a result, Eduardo Camavinga is expected to form the central trio alongside Federico Valverde and Jude Bellingham and take on a key role. In attack, Rodrygo, Kylian Mbappé, and Vinícius Júnior could form the usual trio, which has repeatedly posed a threat in front of goal recently. Thibaut Courtois is likely to be back in goal after his strong performance at Anfield. Another interesting option is Trent Alexander-Arnold at right-back, with Daniel Carvajal out for the long term. Xabi Alonso will confirm the final team selection shortly before kick-off.
Rayo – Real Head-to-head & Statistics
Real Madrid have been unbeaten in their last five meetings, but have only managed two wins (May 2023 and March 2025, both 2-1), while three games ended in draws. In four of the five games, both teams scored, with only the match in November 2023 remaining goalless. Particularly noteworthy: all second halves of these five encounters ended in a draw, with decisions mostly made before the break or the teams neutralizing each other after the break. The most spectacular encounter was the 3-3 draw in December 2024, which showcased both offenses. Rayo Vallecano has been waiting for a win against Real Madrid for over two years, but has secured at least one point in three games, underlining their resilience against Los Blancos.
