Seven points separate Rayo Vallecano and Real Betis Sevilla, both coming off the back of fresh momentum from Europe, and now they meet on Monday evening at the Campo de Futbol de Vallecas when Matchday 16 of La Liga returns to Vallecas. Iñigo Pérez’s Rayo are in twelfth place with 17 points, sandwiched between Alavés and Sevilla in the middle of the table, while Manuel Pellegrini’s Betis have moved up to sixth place and into the European places with a more consistent run, despite their recent defeat in Barcelona. Rayo have picked up just three points from their last five league games, which hardly meets their own expectations, and the last league clash in Vallecas ended 2-2 in May, further evidence that goals are often scored between these two teams.
- Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
- Date and time: December 15, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 16)
Four wins from five competitive games and a three-goal blitz in Zagreb underline an attack that could punish a Rayo side that concedes a lot of goals and has not won in La Liga since October. Betis to win and over 2.5 goals therefore look attractive, while hedging on Betis or a draw takes into account Vallecas’s unpleasant, draw-friendly profile.
Rayo Form & Record Check
Rayo’s league form is clearly lagging behind their own ambitions. The Madrid side are 12th in the table with 17 points, five points above the relegation zone, and have not won in La Liga since October 26. Draws against Real Madrid, Oviedo, and Valencia showed that they can compete, but the recent 1-0 defeat at Espanyol, accompanied by López’s sending-off, reinforced the impression of a team that plays well at times but fails to finish games. The picture is quite different in cup competitions and in Europe, where Rayo beat Real Ávila 2-1 after extra time in the Copa del Rey and then secured a valuable 2-1 away win at Jagiellonia, their first away win in this Conference League. This result secured their place in the 2026 phase, and a home win against Drita would even allow them to skip the playoffs, meaning that their continental expectations have already been exceeded. The statistics underline this duality: in their last five games in all competitions, Rayo have scored in 80% of their matches, but have conceded at least one goal in each of those games, and in 80% of their games more than one goal has been scored. The first halves are usually controlled, with under 1.5 goals, but the games open up later on, which could indicate a lack of concentration or energy as the players’ legs get heavy. Against this backdrop, 12th place in the table with 17 points seems acceptable on paper, especially as Alavés is only one point ahead and Sevilla is level on points behind, but the trend remains fragile. García carries much of the offensive load, supported in Europe by players such as De Frutos and Pérez, while injuries to Alemao, Trejo, and Díaz, as well as the long-term injuries to Mumin and López’s league suspension, noticeably limit Pérez’s options.
Rayo are expected to stick with their previously predicted 4-3-3 formation, with Batalla in goal and a back four of Balliu, Lejeune, Luiz Felipe, and Chavarría. In front of them, Óscar Valentín will act as cover in midfield, flanked by Ciss and a slightly more creative inside midfielder. In attack, Isi and Álvaro would push forward from the wings, with Camello as the central reference, who goes into this game with a lot of confidence after his goal in Bialystok. The most important confirmed absence is Mumin, who remains sidelined long term, so Lejeune and Luiz Felipe are expected to continue as the central defensive pairing. Unai López is suspended in La Liga after his red card against Espanyol, so Gumbau is likely to move into that central position. Alemao, Trejo, and Pedro Díaz recently missed the European trip due to injuries, which is why Camello is once again considered the most likely reference in attack.
Betis Form & Record Check
Real Betis travels to Vallecas with confidence. The Andalusians are in 6th place in La Liga with 24 points and a positive goal difference of 6, just three points behind Espanyol and one ahead of Athletic Club, so there is little room for error. In all competitions, they have won four of their last five games, which somewhat mitigates the impact of recent setbacks in the league. European nights in particular have visibly invigorated Manuel Pellegrini’s side, with their 3-1 win at Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League, built on three goals in seven relentless minutes from an own goal, Riquelme, and Antony, showing their ability to decide games at the right moment. Previously, a 2-1 home win against Utrecht and a 4-1 victory in the Copa del Rey at Torrent kept the momentum going and hinted at real depth in their attacking options. In La Liga, the picture is more nuanced, with the 5-3 collapse against Barcelona exposing structural problems in defense, especially in transition moments, although Betis continue to find the net reliably. The 2-0 derby win in Seville, on the other hand, showed a compact block and efficient counterattacks. Perhaps Pellegrini is still searching for the ideal balance between control and attacking intent, and a fully fit squad further raises expectations. Statistically, Betis are currently often involved in high-scoring games, having scored in each of their last five appearances in all competitions, with each of those games producing more than 1.5 goals, most of them exceeding the 2.5 mark. Only one clean sheet in that run highlights the compromise, with attacking talents such as Bakambu, Antony, and Riquelme pitted against a vulnerable defense.
Betis are expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation that won in Zagreb, with Valles in goal, a back four of Bellerín, Llorente, Natan, and Gómez, and Amrabat and Roca in the double pivot. Isco should once again operate as the central playmaker behind Bakambu, with Antony and Riquelme occupying the wide positions. With no injuries reported, Pellegrini can presumably field his strongest possible lineup. This predicted formation suggests a Betis team that will try to control the midfield through Amrabat and Roca, giving the fullbacks space to push forward offensively and isolate Antony and Riquelme in one-on-one duels. If Pellegrini wants more control or fresh legs between the lines, Fornals, Lo Celso, Ezzalzouli, or Hernández appear to be the most likely options to come off the bench and make an impact. This is more of a projection than a confirmed report, so late changes, such as in the front four or at full-back, cannot be ruled out once the official team lineups are released.
Rayo – Betis Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five league meetings, Real Betis has the slight edge with two wins, Rayo has one win, and there have been two draws, all of which took place in La Liga. Interestingly, the recent trend slightly favors Rayo, who are unbeaten in the last three encounters and have picked up five points against Betis since 2024, reducing the Andalusians’ historical advantage. Betis initially dominated this series, with 3-1 and 1-0 wins at home in 2023, Rayo responded with a 2-0 home win in 2024. After that, the series became more balanced, first with a 1-1 draw in Seville in December 2024, then a 2-2 draw in Vallecas in May 2025, both of which were close and hard-fought matches. Goals are a recurring theme, with at least two goals scored in four of the five games and not a single goalless draw. Both teams scored in three of these encounters, while each recorded only one clean sheet. Furthermore, there were no more than two goals in any second half, meaning that most games were decided relatively early on. Home advantage has clearly played a role, with the home team unbeaten in this series, with three wins and two draws. Rayo picked up four points from two home games, scoring four goals and conceding two, while Betis recorded seven points from three games in Seville, scoring five and conceding only two, showing how difficult both stadiums can be for visitors. Looking ahead, Iñigo Pérez and Manuel Pellegrini could interpret this history differently. Rayo’s three-game unbeaten streak in this fixture points to growing confidence, although Betis still has the better overall record. With Mumin out for the long term, Rayo may need to manage its resources carefully if the game turns into another fast-paced duel with chances at both ends.
