Around 16 months ago, Real Oviedo and Espanyol battled it out for the last La Liga spot in a dramatic promotion playoff final, with the Catalans coming out on top. Today, both teams face each other under completely different circumstances: While Oviedo has slipped to 17th place after four consecutive defeats and has just sacked coach Veljko Paunović, Espanyol is also struggling with poor form despite its better position in the table and has to cope with the weeks-long absence of captain Javi Puado. Luis Carrión returns to Oviedo as the new coach and is hoping for the classic change of coach effect, but with only six points from eight games and a goal difference of minus ten, his team is under enormous pressure. Espanyol is in 9th place with twelve points, but has only picked up two points from its last four games and showed considerable defensive problems in its 1-2 defeat to Betis. Despite the clear differences in form, the betting market interestingly rates the game as evenly matched, which is probably due to home advantage and the possible motivational boost from the change of coach.
- Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo
- Date and time: October 17, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 9)
Firstly, we recommend the double chance X2, i.e. a draw or an away win: Oviedo is in transition following the dismissal of Paunović and has lost four of its last five games, while Espanyol has a broader squad under Manolo González and has kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80 percent of its last games. The market is offering around 2.50 for an away win, but the analysis suggests that Espanyol will take at least one point. Secondly, betting on over 1.5 goals seems attractive, as both teams have seen at least two goals in around 80 percent of their recent games. Oviedo has conceded goals in every game recently, while Espanyol will be looking to increase their attacking pressure after four winless league games. A riskier option for higher odds is “Both teams to score: No,” as Oviedo has failed to score in 80 percent of their first halves and recently lost 2-0 at home to Levante. If Espanyol can maintain their initial defensive organization for 90 minutes, a goalless Oviedo is entirely possible.
Oviedo Form & Record Check
Real Oviedo are going through an acute form crisis with four defeats in five games and are in 17th place in the table with only six points. Particularly worrying is their defensive vulnerability: in all five of their most recent games, the team has conceded at least one goal, and in four games they were already behind at half-time. The statistics show an alarming pattern, as 80 percent of their most recent games were lost at half-time, and the team has been unable to come back from behind in any of those games. The only bright spot was a 2-1 away win in Valencia at the end of September, followed by defeats to Barcelona (1-3), Elche (0-1), Getafe (0-2), and most recently Levante (0-2). After the home defeat to Levante, Veljko Paunović was dismissed despite his contribution to the promotion, and Luis Carrión is now returning as coach after having already managed the club in 2023/24. To make matters worse, Álvaro Lemos is out long term with a cruciate ligament rupture and is not expected back before early 2026, further weakening an already shaky defense. The change of coach could bring new impetus in the short term, but profound tactical adjustments are needed for lasting improvement: a more stable defensive formation with a more compact midfield and tighter full-backs, as well as intensive work on mentality.
Coach Luis Carrión is expected to return to the familiar 4-2-3-1 system that the club has used successfully in the past. Escandell is expected to start in goal, while the back four is likely to consist of Ahijado, Bailly, Carmo, and López. In defensive midfield, Dendoncker and Colombatto are expected to provide the necessary stability as a double six. The attacking trio is likely to consist of Hassan, Ilic, and Brekalo, who are expected to provide creative impetus. Rondón will operate as the lone striker. Lemos remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament rupture and is not expected to return until early 2026. Otherwise, Carrión has the entire squad at his disposal, giving him tactical flexibility for possible adjustments during the game.
Espanyol Form & Record Check
Espanyol are also in mixed form, with just one win, two draws, and two defeats from their last five games. The team conceded goals in four of those five games, and in just as many games, more than 1.5 goals were scored, indicating a more vulnerable defense compared to the start of the season. With twelve points from eight games, Espanyol currently sits in ninth place, just one point behind Athletic Club and one ahead of Alavés. The neutral goal difference and the tight midfield make every game particularly important, as small point losses can quickly cost several places in the table. The recent 1-2 home defeat to Real Betis highlights the current slump: after taking an early lead through Pol Lozano, Espanyol lost to goals from Cucho Hernández and Abde Ezzalzouli in the second half, with the numerous yellow cards reflecting the nervousness in the team. Previously, there was a goalless draw in Girona, a 2-2 draw against Valencia, and a 0-2 defeat at Real Madrid. Offensively, players such as Jofre Carreras and Roberto Fernández repeatedly create dangerous situations, but there is a lack of consistency in finishing and stability in defense. Coach Manolo González faces the challenge of restoring defensive compactness without abandoning the team’s playing style. The match against Oviedo is made even more exciting by their shared history in the promotion final, and Espanyol desperately needs a win to regain stability in the middle of the table.
Coach Manolo González is expected to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation against Oviedo. Dmitrovic will be in goal, with El Hilali, Riedel, Cabrera, and Romero forming the back four. Lozano and González de Zárate will occupy the double central midfield. Captain Puado is out of training with a knee injury and is expected to be sidelined for about a month. The offensive positions remain open: without Puado, Expósito could take over the number 10 position and be supported by Dolan and Milla on the wings. Alternatively, a double strike force with Roberto Fernández and Kike García would also be conceivable, although they have never played together from the start. González must find the right tactical variation for the clash with his former promotion rivals.
H2H Oviedo – Espanyol Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The recent history of the two teams is dominated by the dramatic promotion final in June 2024: Oviedo won the first leg 1-0, but Espanyol turned the series around with a 2-0 win in the second leg, securing promotion to La Liga. The head-to-head matches in recent years have mostly been low-scoring and closely contested, with one notable pattern emerging: in the last five games, not a single goal was scored after the break, with the second half remaining goalless. Only three times have more than two goals been scored per game, and never more than three. The record for the last five encounters is even, with two wins each for Oviedo and Espanyol and one draw. Espanyol has scored in the last three consecutive games against Oviedo and conceded at least one goal in four of the last five encounters, while Oviedo has scored at least once in each of the last four meetings. This history suggests another close, competitive encounter in which both teams will have their chances, but a flood of goals is unlikely.
