It’s a pure relegation battle in Pamplona, with Osasuna sitting 17th with 12 points, just above the drop zone, and hosting bottom-of-the-table Levante with 9 points. It’s effectively a six-point game at the bottom of the table, with both teams desperately needing some breathing space. Osasuna still has a small buffer, but recent draws and narrow defeats have left the team vulnerable, while Levante has lost regularly in the league and is in even greater distress. Osasuna generally looks more stable at its own Estadio El Sadar, even if its overall form is inconsistent. Levante, on the other hand, has been weak away from home and comes into the game on the back of four consecutive league defeats, despite its recent Copa del Rey victory, which only provided brief respite. The short turnaround after the cup games is likely to favor the deeper and more experienced Osasuna team. In direct comparisons, the hosts have mostly come out on top recently, with three wins in the last five encounters, including a 3-1 victory at this ground in 2022. It is striking that these encounters often start cautiously and only open up after the break, with the first half usually being tight and more space and chances emerging afterwards. Osasuna’s focus is on Raúl García with his goal threat and strength from set pieces, striker options such as Becker, and creative players such as Moi Gómez, who can break down tight defenses. Levante’s hopes rest primarily on Koyalipou, the scorer of the recent cup victory, and the most creative midfielders, who will need to deliver quality in transition and from set pieces, as Levante are likely to rely heavily on counterattacks and set pieces. Tactically, Osasuna are expected to control the ball, press high and constantly test Levante’s fragile away defense, while Levante are likely to sit deeper, absorb pressure and look to strike on the counter, with compactness and efficiency in these situations crucial for the visitors. A more cautious option would be to bet on Osasuna to win and both teams to score: No. However, there are still risks: fatigue from Copa del Rey matches could reduce the intensity at the start and favor late goals in both halves. Red cards or injuries in this tight schedule could significantly shift the balance of power, so it’s worth taking a close look at the starting lineups and possible rotations on both sides. Overall, Osasuna is the favorite and has the quality and home advantage to take all three points, but we can expect a tense, low-scoring or at most moderately high-scoring game in which Levante’s discipline and counterattacking threat could still cause Osasuna serious problems.
- Venue: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
- Date and time: December 8, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 15)
The bookmakers see Osasuna as favorites with odds of around 1.70, mainly due to Levante’s run of four defeats and ongoing defensive problems. However, this price could underestimate Osasuna’s own defensive fragility, as the hosts have conceded goals in around 80% of their recent games, despite their 5-3 victory over Ebro in the Copa del Rey. From an analytical perspective, the market for both teams to score (BTTS) therefore seems to be the clearest value, as Osasuna regularly concedes goals and Levante continues to find the back of the net despite its recent slump, which increases the likelihood of both sides scoring. Markets relating to the second half are also interesting. Osasuna often perform better after the break, especially against tired opponents, and the absence of Levante players increases the chances of late Osasuna goals or clear changes in tempo during the game. Accordingly, it is worth looking at over/under markets for the second half and bets on Osasuna scoring in the second half. Overall, the following risk-weighted approaches can be outlined: BTTS as the primary value play, Osasuna to win and both teams to score as an option if the combined odds are attractive, plus Osasuna to score in the second half or second half over 0.5 goals as supplementary ideas. Direct bets on Levante to win are less advisable despite their goal form in some games, except at very high underdog odds; it makes more sense to work with underdog and goal-based markets.
Osasuna Form & Record Check
Osasuna goes into this match in 17th place in La Liga after 14 games with 12 points. Their recent record of one win, two draws, and two losses from their last five league games underscores their difficult phase. The gap to the relegation zone is minimal, with Girona level on points behind them and Valencia only two points above the safety line. The recent Copa del Rey victory against fourth-division side Ebro may have secured progression and provided some breathing space, but it has not solved the fundamental problems. Defensively, their vulnerability over 90 minutes is a particular cause for concern. Osasuna have conceded goals in four of their last five games in all competitions, with the 3-0 home defeat to Real Sociedad proving particularly painful. Added to this are repeated collapses after the break, with several goals conceded in the second half. The fact that they conceded three goals even against lower-league Ebro, albeit in the cup, points to problems with concentration, organization, and individual errors. Offensively, the team struggles to control games early on, with no game in their recent run seeing more than one goal per team in the first half. Low scoring and very cautious starts, such as in the goalless draw in Oviedo or the 2-2 draw in Mallorca, point to a lack of punch or determination in the attacking third early on. Under Alessio Lisci, Osasuna also seems somewhat trapped in the middle ground, with the desire to prioritize defensive stability colliding with a lack of offensive resources to put constant pressure on opponents. The balance is currently off, with defensive instability coupled with too little early offensive threat, making it difficult to pick up points. In the short term, this results in a few clear priorities. First, the defense must be stabilized with simplified procedures, clear responsibilities for set pieces, and more compactness after losing possession in order to reduce individual mistakes and late goals. In addition, the second half should be specifically strengthened, for example through earlier substitutions around the 55th to 65th minute and more proactive management of scores, so that the team does not fall back into the same patterns after the break. At the same time, a more aggressive offense at the start would be useful; slightly higher initial pressing or more direct passes to the front in the first 20 minutes could help build momentum earlier and give the opponent less time to adjust. Against direct rivals at the bottom of the table or defensively solid opponents, a particularly pragmatic approach is also needed, with a clear focus on defensive cleanliness and points, for example through stable 4-4-2 or 4-5-1 structures, while cup games can be used to boost the confidence of the offensive players. In training, the focus should be strongly on concentration and set-piece defense, with targeted exercises to reduce individual mistakes and rehearsed, simple routines. If they fail to limit their defensive weaknesses and at the same time slightly improve their offensive performance in the early stages of games, Osasuna risks continuing its downward trend. Pragmatic immediate measures may stabilize results, but in the medium term, tactical adjustments or personnel changes will be necessary to restore the balance between defense and offense.
Osasuna is expected to start in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Fernández in goal. The back four is likely to consist of Rosier at right-back, Bretones on the left, and Catena and Herrando in central defense. In midfield, Torró and Moncayola will probably act as double pivots, providing defensive cover and stability. Ahead of them, an attacking trio of Becker on the right, Oroz in the center, and Moi Gómez on the left is expected to support the lone striker. Ante Budimir is expected to start as the central striker. In terms of absences, Iker Benito remains sidelined long-term with a cruciate ligament injury, but otherwise Alessio Lisci seems to have a full squad at his disposal, so this predicted starting lineup reflects continuity rather than forced adjustments.
Levante Form & Record Check
Levante are in poor form, with four consecutive La Liga defeats and a total of just nine points leaving them bottom of the table, one point behind Oviedo. Recent results include narrow defeats to Valencia and Athletic Club, as well as more significant losses to Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo. In their last five league games, they have not had a single draw and have earned only one point, which shows how strongly their results have fluctuated between wins and losses recently, with no safety net. Offensively, their output has fallen sharply, with only two goals scored in the four league defeats mentioned above, suggesting that they are neither creating enough clear chances nor consistently taking advantage of the few opportunities they do get. The lack of creativity in the final third, exacerbated by injuries, makes it difficult to convert possession into real scoring chances. At the same time, the defense remains vulnerable, with goals conceded in four consecutive games underscoring the ongoing problems. Even when Levante scores, as they did once against Atletico, defensive errors and the inability to keep a clean sheet undo much of the good work and contribute significantly to their low position in the table. In the Copa del Rey, they managed a 1-0 win against lower-league club Cieza during the week, with Koyalipou scoring in the second half, a professional performance that provides only limited cause for optimism, however, as a win against an opponent from the Segunda Federación is not a reliable indicator of improvement at La Liga level, where quality and consistency must be significantly higher. Álvaro del Moral also has to manage a number of absences. Pablo Martínez is out with an ankle problem but is expected to return soon, while Carlos Espí and Unai Elgezabal remain sidelined with injuries and no clear return dates. Espí’s absence in particular deprives the attack of a creative option and reduces the team’s ability to break down tight defenses. The outlook is correspondingly tense, time is running out to stop the trend, and the priorities are better defensive organization to break the almost serial conceding of goals, and clear mechanisms to create more chances, whether through set pieces, direct combinations, or targeted tactical adjustments. At the same time, fitness management plays a role; the return of injured creative players must be managed in such a way that they can have an immediate impact, otherwise Levante faces a long, hard relegation battle.
Under Álvaro del Moral, Levante is also expected to play in a 4-2-3-1 system. The projected starting lineup consists of Ryan in goal and a back four with Toljan at right-back, Matturro and Cabello in the center, and Pampín on the left. In front of them, the double six of Vencedor and Rey will provide defensive cover and orderly ball progression, while an attacking midfield trio with Losada in the center and two wingers behind center forward Romero will operate. Pablo Martínez is out with an ankle problem and Carlos Espí with a torn muscle. Martínez is likely to be out until around the beginning of December, while the exact timetable for Espí’s return remains unclear. With Martínez out, Losada is expected to move permanently into the central attacking midfield role behind Romero, with the combination of Vencedor and Rey providing protection in front of the defense and supporting fullbacks Toljan and Pampín when they push forward, while the center-back duo of Matturro and Cabello will provide stability. Ryan seems to be the clear number one in goal, and the interplay between the presumed back four and the double six is designed to provide defensive protection first and then specifically serve the attacking trio, which should create chances for Romero.
Osasuna – Levante Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In head-to-head matches, Osasuna has slightly dominated the last five encounters with Levante, with three wins, one draw, and one defeat. The most recent meeting in March 2022 at Estadio El Sadar ended 3-1 in favor of Osasuna. Levante’s only win in this series was a 3-1 away victory in September 2020, while the other game Osasuna did not win was a 0-0 draw in December 2021. Osasuna has scored in each of the last three encounters and kept two clean sheets in this five-game span. It is also striking that four of the five games were tied at halftime. The first half was very low-scoring in this small sample, with 80% of the games seeing fewer than 1.5 goals before the break, meaning that most of the decisions were made after the break, when Osasuna typically picked up the pace.
