Nottingham Forest welcomes Leeds United in a basement battle that could be decisive for both teams. Forest are stuck in second-last place with only 6 points, while Leeds are hovering just above the relegation zone in 16th place with 11 points. After five league defeats in a row, most recently a clear defeat at Arsenal, Sean Dyche’s team is under massive pressure. Leeds have been completely toothless away from home, with four of their last five away games ending goalless, only the 3-0 defeat at Brighton breaking that streak in an inglorious manner. At the City Ground, we can expect a hard-fought game between two teams in poor form, with Forest’s home advantage giving them a slight edge.
- Venue: City Ground, Nottingham
- Date and time: 09.11.2025, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 11)
The betting analysis shows three clear trends: Forest’s relative home strength with two unbeaten games at City Ground, Leeds’ disastrous away record, and the goal statistics of both teams. Bookmakers rate Forest as only slight favorites with odds of around 2.3, which offers value for a home win given the difference in form. The “Over 2.5 goals” tip seems plausible, as Leeds have seen more than 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five games and have conceded at least one goal in each of those matches; they have been particularly vulnerable in the second halves. “Both teams to score” could also be a good bet: Leeds have conceded in 100% of their recent games, while players such as Calvert-Lewin, Gnonto, and Daniel James have individual quality despite their poor form. Forest have enough attacking potential in Hudson-Odoi and Gibbs-White to overcome Leeds’ shaky defense.
Nottingham Form & Record Check
Nottingham Forest are a team of two halves: disastrous in the league with 6 points from 10 games and 19th place with a negative goal difference, but stable in the Europa League with three games without defeat. The main problems are easy to spot: too many goals conceded due to defensive instability, a lack of quality crosses for strikers Wood and Kalimuendo, and the double burden of international games. Personnel concerns are making the situation worse, with Aina and Zinchenko out injured and Awoniyi suspended for the league. Forest urgently needs a more compact defense, especially on the wings, and must make better use of set pieces. Awoniyi’s return will be crucial for the team’s offensive strength, but until then, Hudson-Odoi and Ndoye must bring more pace and improve their finishing. Without a rapid improvement in league performances, the threat of relegation will become real, even if the gaps are still small at the moment.
Forest are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Taiwo Awoniyi, Omari Hutchinson, and Jair Cunha are unavailable as they are suspended or ineligible for the Europa League group stage, as is Igor Jesus. Chris Wood will lead the attack alone, supported by the attacking triangle of Hudson-Odoi, Gibbs-White, and Ndoye, whose creativity will be particularly important in Awoniyi’s absence. Luiz and Sangaré will form the double six in midfield. The back four is expected to consist of Savona on the right, Murillo and Milenković in central defense, and Williams on the left.
Leeds Form & Record Check
Leeds are fighting against relegation in 16th place with 11 points, just one point ahead of Fulham. Their away form is particularly poor: four of their last five away games have ended goalless, with only a 3-0 win at Wolverhampton bringing any points. The defensive statistics from the last five games are alarming, with Leeds conceding at least one goal in every game and even five times in a row in the second halves. In the 3-0 defeat in Brighton, the offense was virtually non-existent, with only 0.5 xG from five shots testifying to their complete harmlessness. Tactically, the problem is evident in their weaker away pressing: 15.9 passes allowed before regaining possession away from home versus 12.9 at home lead to fewer ball wins in the final third and thus significantly fewer dangerous chances. Their patient style of play creates opportunities, but their finishing, especially with Dominic Calvert-Lewin up front, remains consistently inadequate. Elland Road remains the lifeline with 1.6 points per game at home compared to 0.6 away. The personnel situation is worsening ahead of the game in Nottingham: Calvert-Lewin is questionable, and Gnonto, Bogle, and Gray are also missing, further weakening the fragile offense.
As expected, Leeds will also line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Lucas Perri will be in goal, with Byram, Rodon, Bijol, and Gudmundsson in front of him. Longstaff and Ampadu will play as double sixes in defensive midfield, with Aaronson, Jack Harrison, and James forming the attacking trio. The big question mark is Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is considered a major doubt with thigh problems. If he is ruled out, either Lukas Nmecha will step in or Daniel Farke will rely on Joël Piroe as striker. Wilfried Gnonto is struggling with minor groin problems, Jayden Bogle is ill, which could force further rotations.
Nottingham – Leeds Head-to-head & statistics
The recent record between the two teams is evenly balanced: two wins each for Nottingham Forest and Leeds, plus one draw in the last five encounters. The games have been characterized by low scoring, with four of the five games ending with less than three goals and none producing more than three goals. Leeds won the most recent friendly in July 2023 by 2-0 and the league match in April 2023 by 2-1, while Forest’s last competitive win came at home in February 2023 by 1-0. Both teams have scored in four consecutive matches, with Leeds conceding at least one goal in all five games. The first halves have mostly been uneventful, with the decisive moments and goals more often coming after the break, suggesting tactical neutralization in the early stages.
