Nottingham Forest – Brentford FC
A debut on one bench, a mission for stability on the other. Nottingham Forest opens the Premier League season against Brentford at City Ground on Sunday, with Nuno Espírito Santo facing debutant Keith Andrews. Formally, Brentford is in fourth place ahead of round one, with Forest in 15th place, but this table is cosmetic. In sporting terms, what counts is that Forest is looking for stability ahead of its return to Europe. And, as a side note, all teams will wear black armbands in memory of Diogo Jota.
The last match here ended 0-2 in May, with Brentford winning three of the last five head-to-head encounters. Forest’s preparations have been winless with only one goal scored, and Nuno has complained about slow transfers, even though James McAtee, Omari Hutchinson, and Arnaud Kalimuendo are close to signing. Brentford are coming off a summer shake-up without Bryan Mbeumo and Christian Nørgaard, Yoane Wissa is out, and Caoimhin Kelleher is questionable. Forest are missing Nicolás Domínguez, while Brentford are without Vitaly Janelt and Gustavo Nunes.
Nottingham – Brentford Info
- Venue: The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
- Date and time: 17.08.2025, 15:00
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 1)
Three data points support our tips: Over 1.5 goals, both teams to score: Yes, and as a risk option, Brentford to lead at half-time. Over 1.5 seems reasonable because both teams have seen at least two goals in 80% of their last five games and Forest have conceded at least one goal in each of their last five games. Added to this is early-season volatility due to numerous transfers and open squad planning on both sides. This is in line with the preview, which predicts a 2-1 win for Nottingham Forest, and with Brentford’s 2-2 draw in their last friendly against Gladbach.
Both teams to score: Yes remains plausible, although Brentford will have to do without Wissa, Mbeumo and Nørgaard. Keith Andrews brings clear patterns as a former set-piece specialist, while Keane Lewis-Potter and Damsgaard provide depth. Forest have reliable attacking quality in the form of playmaker Gibbs-White, who has remained at the club, and Chris Wood, who scored 20 league goals last season. Interestingly, Nuno has criticized the defensive structure and the squad’s readiness himself, and the preparation has been winless with only one goal scored, which suggests open games.
The riskier half-time bet on Brentford is backed up by a striking streak, with the Bees winning the first half in each of their last five league games and always scoring before the break. Forest will have to start without the injured Domínguez, which will affect the rhythm in the center. Nevertheless, the pick is purely speculative, as Brentford is in transition, Kelleher is shaky, and Andrews’ debut is uncertain.
Nottingham Form & Record Check
Forest are in shaky form, with their last five league games resulting in a 0-1 defeat to Chelsea, a 2-1 win at West Ham, a 2-2 draw with Leicester, a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace and a 0-2 defeat to Brentford. It is striking that they conceded goals every time, often after the break, which cost them control and concentration at key moments.
Four of their last five games have seen over 1.5 goals, while the first half has been fairly quiet in four of those games. They have conceded regularly after the break and have not won a game in this phase. It seems that the balance between courageous pressing and defensive solidity is not quite right yet.
August has been a bumpy ride for a team that has just qualified for Europe. Nuno Espírito Santo criticized the poor squad planning, with the preparations yielding no wins and only one goal. New signings such as Dan Ndoye, Igor Jesus, Jair Cunha, and goalkeeper Angus Gunn are in place, with further deals for James McAtee, Omari Hutchinson, Arnaud Kalimuendo, and Douglas Luiz potentially on the way, but the processes are still fragile.
Formally, Forest are in 15th place in the table before the start of the season, which is of little significance. More importantly, the 2-0 defeat to Brentford at City Ground in May still hurts. Without Nicolás Domínguez, who is out with a knee injury, the team needs structure in the center, creativity from Morgan Gibbs-White, and reliability from Chris Wood to play more consistently in the second half.
Forest are expected to start in their usual 4-3-1-2 formation, with Sels, Aina, Milenković, Murillo, and Williams in front of Sangaré as anchor alongside Anderson and Yates, Gibbs-White in the ten, and Wood up front with Hudson-Odoi closer in the half-space. This fits in well with Nuno’s compact center and the forward push of the fullbacks. Ndoye could come on later to provide width if a change of plan is necessary.
Importantly, Domínguez is still out with knee problems, so the three-man midfield is likely to remain unchanged. Possible new signings such as McAtee or Hutchinson are close according to reports, but I don’t expect them to be confirmed before kick-off. Interestingly, depending on how the game progresses, Nuno could switch to a 4-2-3-1, with Gibbs-White in the center and Hudson-Odoi wider. The lineup outlined here remains a prediction, not a confirmation.
Brentford Form & Record Check
The final sprint of last season was decent, with a 2-0 win at Nottingham, a 4-3 win against Manchester United, a 0-1 loss at Ipswich, a 2-3 loss against Fulham, and a 1-1 draw at Wolves. Early pressure often brought control, but the balance at home was shaky, especially against Fulham. Against United, Brentford benefited from pace and transitions, but defended chaotically. The draw at Wolverhampton looked more mature, but with less impact after the break.
Interestingly, the Bees won the first half in each of their last five league games and always scored before the break. Brentford have scored at least one goal in all of their games over 90 minutes, with 80% of their games seeing over 1.5 goals. On the flip side, they have only won the second half once. Early goals could once again be the key, as they lack stability after taking the lead.
There are a lot of personnel changes. Bryan Mbeumo has moved to Manchester United, Christian Nørgaard is gone, Yoane Wissa is set to leave and is not in the squad for Forest, as Keith Andrews explained. Dango Ouattara is expected to strengthen the attack in the near future, but it is unlikely to be in time. Caoimhin Kelleher is injured and his availability is uncertain. Vitaly Janelt and Gustavo Nunes are out. Nathan Collins is now wearing the captain’s armband.
The team looks competitive in the league, but the exodus increases the risk. In terms of the table, everything is level on points before the start of the season, with Brentford’s nominal fourth place being purely cosmetic, as Aston Villa and Brighton are right behind them. Andrews, previously a set-piece specialist, is focusing on clear processes. If the early stages go well, Brentford could conceal their current unrest surprisingly well.
We predict Brentford will line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation under Andrews, with Valdimarsson in goal, Kayode, Collins, van den Berg and Lewis-Potter behind him. Henderson will partner Yarmolyuk in the double pivot, with Damsgaard and Schade on the wings and Carvalho in the center, and Igor Thiago up front. This is a possible starting XI, not a confirmation, with Collins leading the back four as the new captain.
In terms of personnel, there are many indications that Wissa will be missing again, with Andrews recently making it clear that he is not available. Kelleher is injured and his fitness is being assessed, so Valdimarsson seems a plausible option. Schade is back in training, with a decision to be made shortly. Janelt and Gustavo Nunes are reported as injured. A possible deal for Ouattara will be finalized early next week at the earliest and is unlikely to affect the starting lineup here.
H2H Nottingham – Brentford Head-to-head & Statistics
In May 2025, Brentford won 2-0 at Forest. In December 2024, Forest won 2-0 at Brentford. Earlier in 2024, Brentford turned around a wild 3-2 defeat. In 2023, Brentford won 1-1 and 2-1. The bottom line from these five matches is that Brentford won three times, Forest once, and there was one draw.
All five games had over 1.5 goals, four of them under 3.5. In three of the five, both teams scored. The pattern of the head-to-head matches was that the first halves were rather subdued in 80% of the cases, with late swings often occurring. Forest scored in four of the five games but failed to score in May 2025, while Brentford only failed to score in December 2024.
Current streak: five in a row with over 1.5 total goals. In the last three head-to-head matches, at least two goals were scored after the break. Interestingly, Brentford won away in May 2025 and in 2023, while Forest countered away in December 2024. The trend is slightly in Brentford’s favor, but the gap is narrow.
