Key Facts
- Newcastle is just one point behind Everton; Sunderland is level on points with Brighton – this derby is therefore crucial in the battle for league position.
- Newcastle has scored in all five of its most recent matches, but conceded goals in four of them; the absences of Bruno Guimarães and Fabian Schär increase this risk.
- Sunderland is missing starting goalkeeper Robin Roefs as well as wingers Mundle, Traoré, and Ta Bi, which significantly limits the visitors’ margin for error.
- All five recent head-to-head matches have had fewer than 3.5 goals, with fewer than 1.5 goals scored before halftime—individual moments have decided victory or defeat.
- Sunderland has won three of the last five direct encounters, including the derby in December 2025 (1-0); an X2 for the visitors has statistical merit despite their underdog status.
Newcastle returns to St. James’ Park on Sunday, and Eddie Howe is trying to channel the bitter Champions League exit and the 1-0 derby loss from December into energy rather than uncertainty. Sunderland travels under Régis Le Bris, and both managers are describing the match almost as a final. Newcastle is just one point behind Everton, while Sunderland is level on points with Brighton, which gives this Premier League clash real significance beyond just local pride.
- Venue: St. James’ Park, Newcastle
- Date and time: March 22, 2026, 1:00 PM
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 31)
Newcastle is the clear favorite at home, and the bookmakers’ assessment is certainly justified. Nevertheless, there are more uncertainties in this match than the odds initially suggest. Newcastle has scored in all five of its last matches, but has also conceded goals in four of them, which argues in favor of both “Newcastle to win” and “Both teams to score: Yes.” Sunderland’s 1-0 derby win adds further weight to the X2 bet, should nerves ultimately get the better of tactical control.
Newcastle Form & Record Check
Newcastle’s most recent performance was simply impossible to ignore. The 7-2 loss in Barcelona ended their Champions League run and ruthlessly highlighted just how vulnerable this team can become once they can no longer withstand the initial pressure. Anthony Elanga scored twice with impressive finishes and at least proved that Newcastle can hurt top-tier teams on the counterattack. Eddie Howe left that evening knowing he’d have to thoroughly evaluate Sandro Tonali and with a clear mandate to ensure such collapses don’t become a habit. In the league, the situation looks more stable. A 1-0 away win at Chelsea, preceded by a 2-1 home victory over Manchester United—these are the results keeping Newcastle in ninth place.
But things aren’t going quite that smoothly, because while they’ve scored in each of their last five matches, they’ve also conceded goals in four of them. On top of that, with Bruno Guimarães and Fabian Schär out, the team’s midfield axis is missing, and that’s clearly noticeable in their build-up play.
Eddie Howe is likely to stick with his usual 4-3-3 formation (prediction). Goalkeeper: Nick Pope (1). Defense: Kieran Trippier (2), Malick Thiaw (12), Sven Botman (4), Lewis Hall (3). Fabian Schär is out with a broken ankle, and Emil Krafth is also still unavailable. Midfield: Jacob Ramsey (41), Joelinton (7), and, if fit, Sandro Tonali (8) are likely to form the midfield trio, as Bruno Guimarães and Lewis Miley are out. Attack: Anthony Elanga (20) and Anthony Gordon (10) will provide width around Yoane Wissa (9). Joe Willock (28) would be an option for additional cover in the center.
Sunderland Form & Record Check
Sunderland arrives following a tough 0-1 home loss to Brighton, a result that highlights this team’s current problem more clearly than any deeper crisis. Régis Le Bris has kept this team competitive, but recently their attacking play has lacked any rhythm. Brian Brobbey started on the bench in that match, Wilson Isidor is struggling to find his form, and the absence of Romaine Mundle further limits their threat down the wings. Nevertheless, the visitors bring enough resilience to make for a tough game. A 1-0 win at Leeds and a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth came immediately before the loss to Brighton, so their league form isn’t quite as bleak as the overall impression might suggest. Nevertheless, three losses in five competitive matches speak for themselves, and with Robin Roefs, Bertrand Traoré, and Jocelin Ta Bi all unavailable, this team’s margin for error currently seems quite slim.
Sunderland is likely to line up in a 4-1-4-1 under Régis Le Bris, without the need for any tactical surprises. Granit Xhaka – 34 would likely take the deepest position, Lutsharel Geertruida – 6 and Trai Hume – 32 could provide width, and Brian Brobbey – 9 is expected to lead the attack alone, supported by Chris Rigg – 11, Habib Diarra – 19, and Chemsdine Talbi – 7. The key concern lies with the squad. Robin Roefs is out with a thigh injury, so Melker Ellborg – 31 is expected to start. The absences of Romaine Mundle, Bertrand Traoré, and Jocelin Ta Bi noticeably limit the options on the wings.
In central defense, Dan Ballard – 5 and Omar Alderete – 15 are expected to provide defensive stability in this potential lineup.
Newcastle – Sunderland Head-to-Head & Statistics
The last five head-to-head matches slightly favor Sunderland with three wins; Newcastle won once, and there was one draw. The most recent derby in December 2025 ended 1-0 in favor of Sunderland, while Newcastle’s most decisive victory was the 3-0 win in the 2024 FA Cup. Overall, however, a clear pattern dominates: tight, low-scoring matches rather than open exchanges of attacks. This pattern is consistent. All five encounters had fewer than 3.5 goals, and in each, fewer than 1.5 goals were scored before halftime. Sunderland also scored before halftime in three consecutive games, while Newcastle conceded a goal in each of the last three matchups. A single moment could therefore make the difference again; neither team dominates over the entire 90 minutes.
