Twelfth against fourth in the table, a historic stadium, and two managers under close scrutiny—the clash between Newcastle and Chelsea at St. James’ Park is much more explosive than the bare table suggests. The Premier League Round 17 match will be played on Saturday afternoon, December 20, with Newcastle, currently 12th in the table with 22 points, sandwiched between Tottenham and Bournemouth, hosting Chelsea, who are 4th in the table with 28 points and trying to keep up with Aston Villa and keep Crystal Palace at bay. Eddie Howe and Enzo Maresca are therefore approaching this task from very different starting positions, but recent history has shifted the balance of power slightly. Newcastle won the last meeting here in May 2-0 and knocked Chelsea out of the League Cup with the same score, but now comes off a derby defeat and with a long injury list on defense, including Burn, Botman, and Trippier. Chelsea, on the other hand, buoyed by victories over Everton and Cardiff and slight favorites with the bookmakers, travel to a place where Maresca’s team has already struggled. The mood in the various competitions could hardly be more different. Newcastle have a mixed league record after their defeat to Sunderland, but picked up a late cup win against Fulham, while Bruno Guimarães is one yellow card away from suspension. Chelsea have recently recorded consecutive wins against Everton and Cardiff and are entering a tough December schedule and upcoming League Cup semi-finals with their heads held high. In this context, rotation and energy levels could become just as important for Howe and Maresca as pure tactics, with both coaches under increased scrutiny.
- Venue: St. James’ Park, Newcastle
- Date and time: December 20, 2025, 1:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 17)
Our assessment is that Chelsea’s compact system and in-form creative players such as Palmer justify betting on Chelsea to win and also on a double chance in favor of the Londoners, while the usual intensity at St James’ Park suggests that both teams will score.
Newcastle form & record check
Newcastle are in a precarious position going into this weekend. The team is in twelfth place in the Premier League with 22 points, level on points with Tottenham above them and just one point ahead of Bournemouth below. For a team juggling Champions League duties with defending a domestic cup, this mid-table reality seems disappointing, even if the broader impression remains that the season can still be salvaged. Recent league games reflect this inconsistency. A 2-2 draw with Tottenham and a 2-1 home win over Burnley showed that Newcastle can take a beating and still come out on top in close encounters, but in both games they conceded goals again. That was followed by a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland, decided by Woltemade’s own goal, a tough derby setback that halted Newcastle’s attempt to build sustained momentum. In other competitions, the mood was more relaxed. A 2-2 draw at Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League was a respectable result and at least suggested that Newcastle can score away from home. Against Fulham in the quarterfinals of the League Cup, they fought back to win 2-1, with Miley’s header in stoppage time from Tonali’s corner extending a remarkable run in the competition. The underlying statistics from the last five games in all competitions are clear. Newcastle scored in 80% of those games but conceded in every one, with over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals scored in 80% of cases. In 80% of these games, they also conceded goals in the second half, indicating problems with control when their energy levels drop. Personnel issues explain much of this. Botman’s thigh problems and Burns’ rib and lung injuries have ruled out two key defenders, while Trippier and Krafth are not expected to return until early January, which is why Miley is filling in at right-back. That leaves Schär, Thiaw, Livramento, and Hall with a heavy defensive burden, with Guimarães in the center to shield them, but he is already one yellow card away from suspension.
Newcastle are expected to stick with their familiar 4-3-3 formation; in my predicted starting lineup, Ramsdale is in goal behind a back four of Livramento, Thiaw, Schär, and Hall. With Botman and Burn out and Trippier and Krafth still unavailable, Thiaw and Schär look like the natural central pairing, although Howe could spring a surprise somewhere in defense. In front of them, I expect to see the trio of Tonali, Guimarães, and Joelinton, with Guimarães likely to start despite being one yellow card away from suspension. Wissa leads the line between Murphy and Gordon, a front three that presses high and can attack immediately on quick transitions, while Barnes and Elanga remain the main options off the bench to change the game if needed.
Chelsea Form & Record Check
Chelsea travel to St James’ Park with momentum, as the tide finally seems to be turning. Their last five games in all competitions have seen a 3-1 league defeat at Leeds, a 0-0 away draw at Bournemouth, a 2-1 Champions League defeat at Atalanta with five changes to the starting lineup, then a 2-0 home win against Everton and a 3-1 League Cup quarter-final win in Cardiff, with substitutes Alejandro Garnacho and Pedro Neto deciding the game. This sequence highlights a familiar inconsistency, although the overall trend appears positive. Maresca had described a run of four games without a win as his worst 48 hours at the club, but since then, the wins against Everton and Cardiff have provided some breathing space at just the right time. The game in Cardiff in particular, in which Chelsea were much better on the ball after half-time, points to growing confidence in the options coming off the bench. In the Premier League, Chelsea are fourth with 28 points and a goal difference of 12, five points behind Aston Villa and only two ahead of Crystal Palace, meaning any slip-up would immediately bring them closer to their pursuers. Recent encounters have tended to be open, with an unusually high proportion of games seeing over 1.5 goals, only the 0-0 draw at Bournemouth breaking that pattern. Performance levels are heavily influenced by squad management. Caicedo and Enzo Fernández form the core in the center, but have carried an enormous burden, so much so that Maresca admits they cannot train every day. Injuries to Roméo Lavia and Dário Essugo have further limited rotation options. With no Chelsea players on international duty for the Africa Cup of Nations, Maresca can generally rely on continuity, but Andrey Santos, Reece James, and Malo Gusto continue to fill gaps in midfield. In attack, Chelsea can call on Cole Palmer, João Pedro, and wide options such as Neto and Garnacho, while Mykhaylo Mudryk is suspended in all competitions, Raheem Sterling is unavailable in the Champions League, and Liam Delap is out injured. The quarter-final in Cardiff clearly showed how fresh attackers can change the pace, but in the league, the impression remains that this team should be more consistent given its talent and resources.
Chelsea are expected to stick with the familiar 4-2-3-1 from our predicted line-up, with Sánchez in goal behind James, Adarabioyo, Badiashile, and Cucurella. With Colwill and Disasi out, Adarabioyo and Badiashile form the core of the defense, James has the license to push forward into midfield, and Cucurella provides width at left-back. Importantly, this is only a predicted system and not a confirmed starting lineup. With Lavia, Essugo, and Colwill still out, we see Caicedo and Fernández as the tough double six in front of them. Caicedo secures the center and protects the defense, Fernández connects the play and brings the ball forward, and Palmer acts as the main playmaker in front of them. Despite a recent groin problem, he is expected to be involved and could start centrally again. In front of this midfield, our prediction sees Estevão on the right, Garnacho as the left attacker, and João Pedro as the central striker. Estevão’s minor muscle problem makes Neto the obvious alternative in case of doubt, while suspensions and unavailability for Mudryk and Sterling, as well as Delap’s injury, mean that Garnacho and João Pedro shoulder much of the attacking responsibility in this prediction.
Newcastle – Chelsea Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
The head-to-head record for the last five meetings is completely even in regular time. Both sides have two wins each, plus a draw that Chelsea later won on penalties. It is striking that every win went to the home club, with no club managing an away win in this series, which clearly underlines the influence of home advantage. The series began in 2023, when Chelsea narrowly won a League Cup quarterfinal after a 1-1 draw on penalties. In 2024, Chelsea followed up with two Premier League home wins, 3-2 and 2-1, while Newcastle responded with a 2-0 win at St James’ Park in the League Cup round of 16, knocking Chelsea out of the competition. There were goals regularly, but the results were rarely clear-cut. All five games ended with more than one goal, four of them remained under four goals, the only real exception being the 2024 league game with a 3-2 score. The second halves were mostly drawn out, with a maximum of one goal scored in four of the five games. Newcastle has started these encounters better overall. The team scored in the first half in all five games and was never behind at the break, while Chelsea conceded a goal before halftime every time. After the break, the picture changed somewhat, with Chelsea winning the second halves in the last three games, which should give Maresca a little confidence. Newcastle scored in each of these five encounters, while Chelsea did so in the last three, meaning that games without conceding a goal were rare. Combined with the lack of an away win, the first goal and the support of the home fans seem to have been decisive factors, something Eddie Howe will be counting on again.
