Newcastle has won its last three competitive games against Arsenal, including both League Cup semi-finals at the beginning of the year, and now welcomes an opponent to St. James’ Park that has neither scored nor won there since May 2023. The starting positions could hardly be more different: Arsenal sits in second place with ten points in the top group, while Newcastle is struggling for consistency in 13th place. Despite this clear hierarchy in the table, recent history favors the Magpies, who have not conceded a goal in their last three home games against the Gunners. Nevertheless, the betting market sees Arsenal as the clear favorites, reflecting their current form: Mikel Arteta’s team has not conceded a goal from open play this season, but is struggling with creative problems in attack. Only four goals from open play in five league games mark Arteta’s weakest record since taking office. Eddie Howe still needs to find new solutions in attack. Joelinton and William Osula showed their scoring prowess in the 4-1 win over Bradford City in the Carabao Cup, but the Premier League demands different qualities.
- Venue: St. James’ Park, Newcastle
- Date and time: 28.09.2025, 17:30
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 6)
Newcastle form & record check
Newcastle are currently struggling with a certain inconsistency, which is particularly noticeable in the league. The goalless draw in Bournemouth was their third consecutive away game without a win, and with six points from five league games, Eddie Howe’s team are only in 13th place, one point behind Leeds and one point ahead of Brighton. However, Newcastle have been exceptionally solid in the first half, not conceding a single goal at the break in their last five games. This defensive solidity early in the game could also be an asset against Arsenal. The 4-1 win over Bradford in the League Cup showed what this team is capable of. Joelinton shone with two goals, underlining his transformation from striker to all-rounder, William Osula took his chance with a brace and could be an option for more firepower, while Bruno Guimarães directed the game with two assists. Newcastle sometimes lack a decisive player in the final third. Nick Woltemade was signed for £69 million but still needs time. The three goalless draws this season speak for themselves, and Howe needs to find creative solutions to overcome this offensive slump.
Newcastle are likely to line up in their usual 4-3-3 formation against Arsenal. Eddie Howe will probably stick with a tried-and-tested starting lineup, even though some players are unavailable due to not being eligible for Champions League football. Aaron Ramsdale is expected to start in goal, which would see him face his former club. The defense could feature Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, and Hall, with Lewis Hall returning from his foot injury in time and, according to reports, could make an important impact with his progressive passing. Bruno Guimarães is likely to be the key player in midfield, supported by Joelinton and possibly young Lewis Miley. The 19-year-old recently received support from his teammates after being criticized in some quarters following his 50th competitive appearance. In attack, William Osula could get a chance after his two goals in the Carabao Cup against Bradford, flanked by Anthony Gordon and Anthony Elanga.
Arsenal Form & Record Check
Arsenal have shown solid, if not perfect, form this season. After five games, the Gunners are second in the table with ten points, level with Tottenham and just five points behind leaders Liverpool. Their recent record is mixed: three wins, one defeat, and one draw. Their defensive stability in the first half is striking, as they have kept a clean sheet in all five league games, while they have been much more effective in the second half, winning four out of five times. The 1-1 draw with Manchester City was typical of Arsenal this season: defensively compact, but not forceful enough in attack to make the big breakthrough. Martinelli’s late equalizer saved an important point, but also highlighted the difficulty of making a decisive impact against top teams. The 3-1 win against Nottingham Forest and the 2-1 away win at Athletic Club in the Champions League showed the quality of the squad. The new signings are already paying off: Eze scored his first goal for Arsenal in the 2-1 League Cup win against Port Vale, while Gyökeres brings a new dimension to the game with his goal-scoring prowess. However, injury concerns surrounding Ødegaard, Havertz, and Madueke could become a problem, especially as the question remains whether the existing depth in the squad is sufficient to compete in both the league and the Champions League.
Arteta is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 4-3-3 formation, even if personnel concerns are making planning difficult. Ødegaard is still out with a shoulder injury, which could see Eze play a central role in the attack. The former Crystal Palace player has settled in well since his move and could fill the creative void. Gyökeres is set to start up front, with Havertz still struggling with knee problems. Gabriel Jesus is unavailable anyway due to his lack of Champions League eligibility. The defense around Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães, who have both recently signed long-term contracts, should remain unchanged. The midfield lineup will be interesting: Rice and Merino are likely to form the center, while Saka and Martinelli will provide pace on the wings. This formation gives Arsenal the necessary balance between defensive stability and offensive punch.
H2H Newcastle – Arsenal Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
The most recent encounters between Newcastle and Arsenal tell a clear story of Newcastle’s dominance. The Magpies won three consecutive matches before Arsenal struck back with a 3-2 victory in a friendly in July 2025. Newcastle’s dominance was particularly impressive in the League Cup semi-finals in January and February 2025, when they won 2-0 away and 2-0 at home. Newcastle had also won 1-0 in the league in November 2024. A striking pattern characterizes these duels: both teams rarely draw. None of the last five encounters ended in a draw, and the games are usually low-scoring, with four of the five matches remaining under 2.5 goals. Newcastle are particularly strong against Arsenal in the first half. The Magpies have led at halftime in three consecutive games, while Arsenal have conceded early goals in each of those three games and have never led at halftime. The Gunners need to break this negative streak today. Their last competitive win against Newcastle was over a year ago, when they narrowly won 1-0 in May 2025.
The “Both teams to score: No” tip at around 1.9 benefits from two factors: Newcastle have kept clean sheets in five of their last six games and have not conceded a single goal in the first half, while Arsenal have yet to concede a goal from open play and have failed to score in their last three visits to St. James’ Park. Arsenal to win at 2.1 looks attractive given Eze’s influence, as the former Palace star has already scored his first goal for the Gunners and could play a key role in Ødegaard’s absence. The betting markets rate Arsenal as clear favorites, even though Newcastle are unbeaten in ten games at home and have just thrashed Bradford 4-1. A home win at 3.6 seems quite appealing, especially as Arsenal will be without Ødegaard, Havertz, and Jesus, and Arteta has admitted that Eze is not yet fully integrated into the right-sided midfield position. The situation could play into Newcastle’s hands, even if their attacking coordination is not yet perfect and Nick Woltemade continues to adapt to the Premier League.
