A new coach from Naples on the Atalanta bench, a host weakened by injuries, and a table in which fourth place and relegation zone meet – this duel at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona is much more explosive than it appears at first glance. On Saturday at 8:45 p.m., Napoli welcomes Atalanta Bergamo on matchday 12 of Serie A. Napoli is in fourth place with 22 points, level on points with AC Milan, while Atalanta is in 13th place with 13 points, one point ahead of Torino and three points ahead of the relegation zone. The focus is on Raffaele Palladino, who will make his debut as Atalanta coach after replacing Juric a week ago. The 41-year-old Neapolitan announced that he wants to see “a battle” in his hometown, which adds extra emotional intensity to the encounter. Both teams are coming off defeats: Napoli lost 2-0 in Bologna on November 9 and failed to score for the first time this season, while Atalanta lost 3-0 to Sassuolo and have been waiting for a win for five competitive games, with two defeats and three draws. Napoli are particularly hard hit by the absences of Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne, and Frank Anguissa, who are out with thigh injuries, while goalkeeper Alex Meret and Billy Gilmour are also injured, forcing Antonio Conte to improvise and giving Scott McTominay, who has been in good form recently, an even more important role. The head-to-head record also promises plenty: Napoli won the last encounter 3-2 away in January, while Atalanta won 3-0 at the Maradona in November 2024. There have been no draws in the last five meetings, with at least three goals scored each time. Despite personnel concerns, bookmakers see Napoli as clear favorites with a home win probability of around 44%, while Atalanta has around 30%.
- Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
- Date and time: November 22, 2025, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 12)
The bookmakers rate Napoli as favorites with odds of around 2.25, but a clear home win is by no means guaranteed. The absences of Lukaku, Anguissa, and De Bruyne have robbed the team of much of its offensive and creative power. In its last three home games, Napoli has scored only one goal, but has kept a clean sheet in the first half of five games. Atalanta are also in a slump, without a win in five competitive games, and have recently produced low half-time scores, with less than 1.5 goals scored at the break in around 80% of these encounters.
Tip 1, Under 2.5 goals, is based precisely on this constellation: without a striker and two central playmakers, the probability of many goals is significantly reduced. Napoli looked uninspired offensively in their 2-0 defeat in Bologna, and Atalanta have also shown little punch on the pitch recently, so under 2.5 goals seems very plausible both statistically and in terms of content. Tip 2, Both teams to score: No, follows the same logic. The expected cautious approach of both sides and personnel concerns in attack increase the chance that at least one team will remain goalless. Hojlund at Atalanta has not been consistently dangerous in front of goal so far, and Napoli lack finishing power without Lukaku, so Both teams to score: No is an obvious additional tip.
A riskier but more lucrative option is Atalanta double chance, i.e. X2. The tense internal climate in Naples, with signs of fatigue, club trouble and numerous absences, as well as Palladino’s declared intention to make a statement in his first game, make an away point a realistic prospect, especially as the home advantage seems somewhat overrated in the odds. However, injuries, late lineup decisions, or an unexpectedly offensive approach by a coach can quickly invalidate the prediction. Therefore, only a small portion of the betting account should be allocated to the risky double chance, with the focus of the bet on under 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
Napoli form & record check
Napoli is in a mixed phase, with 22 points currently putting them in 4th place. Their last five games have brought 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Typical is the mixture of solid defense in the first 45 minutes and a rather harmless offense. Four of the last five games were tied at halftime, and in none of these games were more than 1.5 goals scored before the break. Overall, only around 20% of their recent games have exceeded the 2.5-goal mark, which clearly illustrates their problems in attack. The situation is exacerbated by the injuries to Romelu Lukaku, Frank Anguissa, and Kevin De Bruyne, who are all out for the long term, with Lukaku expected to be out until mid-December, Anguissa until February 2026, and De Bruyne until March. This means that creativity, pace, and physical presence are lacking in both midfield and up front. In this constellation, Scott McTominay is one of the most important performers, providing structure and stability, while Rasmus Højlund is viewed critically with only 4 goals so far.
The 2-0 defeat in Bologna highlighted these weaknesses: hardly any noteworthy shots on goal, few ideas in the final third, a visibly annoyed Antonio Conte, and speculation about internal tensions. Tactically, adjustments are therefore needed. The offensive play should become more varied, with Højlund being involved more often with runs into space and combinations on the wings, rather than acting too isolated as a lone striker. In midfield, it would make sense to pair McTominay as a box-to-box player with a creative number 10 or a space-creating number 8 to improve the flow of the ball and make better use of the spaces. Since ideas are often lacking in open play, crosses and set pieces can be important weapons in the short term. In close encounters, reacting earlier with offensive substitutions would also help. Against deep-lying opponents, Napoli should consistently look to create pace down the wings. In the short term, the gap to the top of the table threatens to grow if the injury situation remains tense and the offensive play does not become more varied, but the existing defensive organization offers Conte a stable foundation. Accordingly, close games with few goals are still to be expected. Victories remain realistic, especially with a compact defense, but consistency in attack and the return of injured key players are crucial for Napoli to defend their top positions.
Despite considerable personnel problems, coach Antonio Conte is likely to stick with the 3-4-3 system and put Milinković-Savić in goal for the injured Alex Meret. In front of him, a back three of Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, and Buongiorno is expected, with Mazzocchi and Gutiérrez providing width and depth on the wings. Anguissa is out with a serious thigh injury until February 2026, as are De Bruyne and Gilmour, so McTominay and Lobotka would form the center, with McTominay in strong form and likely to take on a central role. Lukaku is out of the attack, so Rasmus Højlund is expected to start as center forward, flanked by Politano and Lang. This formation is a prediction based on the current personnel situation, and Conte could make tactical adjustments at short notice.
Atalanta Form & Record Check
Atalanta is currently going through a disappointing phase, with 13 points and 13th place not meeting the expectations of a club that has regularly competed internationally in recent years. The point gaps are still manageable, with only one point behind Torino and three points ahead of Cagliari, so short-term reversals remain possible, but the direction of the results is clearly negative.
Atalanta has only picked up five points from its last five competitive games, with one win, two draws, and two defeats. The weakness in attack is striking, with less than 2.5 goals scored in four of these five games and no lead at half-time in the most recent games. At the same time, the team has conceded at least one goal in four of its last five games, which points to deficiencies in both defense and transition play. The reasons for this are a certain tactical stagnation and a lack of punch in the front line, an unbalanced balance between pressing pressure and defensive cover, as well as psychological factors following heavy home defeats such as the 0-3 loss to Sassuolo, exacerbated by the poor form of individual key players.
Raffaele Palladino, 41, who replaces Juric, is now expected to bring new impetus. He combines the ambition to compete for European places again with a clear emphasis on humility, commitment, and hard work. Tactically, he usually plans with a 3-4-2-1, occasionally with a 3-4-1-2, i.e., essentially with a back three and active wingers, as is familiar from Bergamo. The key point is his demand that everyone must earn their place in the starting eleven through their performance in training.
In the short term, a number of priorities can be identified. The defensive structure must be stabilized quickly, with clear roles in the back three and compact half-spaces in front of the defense. The transition should be simplified, with fewer risky vertical passes and a more controlled transition game to prevent simple ball losses. Offensively, responsibility must be spread across several shoulders, not just relying on individual stars, but combining more strongly via the half positions and forcing set pieces in a targeted manner. At the same time, psychological work is needed, more discipline in the team and simple goals, first defensive stability, then gradually more variability up front.
Against Napoli, a more cautious approach seems plausible. Palladino is likely to prioritize defensive organization and rely on counterattacks and set pieces. In the short term, he can rotate players such as Lookman, Scamacca, and De Ketelaere depending on their fitness and form without immediately focusing everything on total offense. In the long term, however, Atalanta needs to draw more creative inspiration from these players again. A quick boost through more organization, fighting spirit, and clearer roles could soon stabilize results, but for a sustainable jump back to the top, the team needs significantly higher efficiency in front of goal and a consistent defense, which is why a gradual improvement rather than a march toward the top of the table is to be expected in the coming weeks.
Raffaele Palladino is likely to start with his preferred 3-4-2-1 system. He emphasized that there are no fixed starters and that everyone has to earn their position in training, which is why the lineup remains speculative. Carnesecchi is expected in goal, with a back three of Kossounou, Hien, and Ahanor in front of him. Bellanova and Zappacosta are likely to start on the flanks of the back four, with Éderson and Pašalić expected to form the central midfield duo. Behind striker Scamacca, Samardžić and Lookman are expected to occupy the creative attacking positions. Bakker is out long-term with a cruciate ligament rupture, but otherwise Palladino has almost all his personnel options available to test the squad and set his first tactical priorities.
Napoli – Atalanta Head-to-head & statistics
The previous direct duels between Napoli and Atalanta have been extremely clear-cut in their outcomes, with no draws in the last five encounters: Napoli won three times and Atalanta twice. In detail, Atalanta won both games 3-0 in March and November 2024, while Napoli won 2-1 away in November 2023, won 2-0 at home in the same year, and most recently prevailed 3-2 away again in January 2025. At least two goals were scored in all five games, with four of these matches seeing more than 2.5 goals, but at the same time, the last four games remained below 3.5 goals, indicating intense but not completely open exchanges. It is also striking that Napoli conceded at least one goal in four of these five encounters and rarely kept a clean sheet against Atalanta.
