Exactly one year after Rúben Amorim took office, Manchester United faces Everton at Old Trafford on Monday evening. United are 10th in the Premier League with 18 points and are unbeaten in five league games. Everton are 13th with 15 points, and after two defeats, the Toffees managed a small breakthrough with their victory over Fulham.
The most recent head-to-head matches clearly favor United. Everton has not won in the last five encounters, with United winning three of those games. However, the two most recent matches ended in 2-2 draws, including the encounter in August during the Premier League Summer Series. Despite their mediocre position in the table, bookmakers see the Red Devils as clear favorites, probably due to their historical superiority.
United have a few personnel problems. Benjamin Sesko is out for several weeks with a knee injury, and Harry Maguire is also missing. In addition, Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo, and Noussair Mazraoui are likely to be unavailable in December due to call-ups for the Africa Cup of Nations, which puts additional strain on squad planning. On a positive note, Lisandro Martínez is set to return after nine months out with injury.
At Everton, coach David Moyes returns to his old stomping ground. In terms of personnel, his team is more stable overall, with only Jarrad Branthwaite out long-term with a thigh injury. New signing Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has settled in quickly and recently formed a well-functioning attacking trio with Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye. Thierno Barry, on the other hand, is still waiting for his first league goal for the Toffees.
All in all, the statistics and history favor Manchester United, but personnel concerns on both sides and Everton’s recent form keep the game open. The return of Martínez for United and the efficiency of Everton’s attacking trio could be decisive.
- Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester
- Date and time: 11/24/2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 12)
In recent games, both teams have shown a clear pattern. Manchester United scores a lot of goals but reveals defensive weaknesses. Everton struggles to finish but is capable of contributing goals itself. With market odds of around 1.8, United is the clear favorite, but the most exciting options are in the goal markets, especially over 2.5 and over 3.5 goals.
The data supports this impression: 80% of United’s last five games have ended with more than 2.5 goals. United has scored in all five games and conceded goals in the second half in 80% of those games. In addition, United has led at halftime in each of its last five games and has not conceded a goal before halftime. Everton, on the other hand, have conceded goals in four consecutive competitive games, and Jarrad Branthwaite is out. These factors point to early dominance from United and a higher total number of goals.
Among the key players, Iliman Ndiaye stands out in particular, posing a threat to United’s vulnerable phases in the second half. United will be without Benjamin Sesko, but Bryan Mbeumo continues to provide firepower with six goals this season. The recent 4-2 home win against Brighton also shows that Old Trafford is currently often the setting for spectacular encounters.
A conservative bet would be on a handicap or match win for Manchester United at single odds of around 1.8, United to win. The primary tip is over 2.5 goals, based on the aforementioned 80% of recent games. Ambitious players can bet on over 3.5 goals if they are looking for higher odds and more risk. Optionally, a combination of United to win and over 2.5 goals is interesting to increase the odds advantage.
However, risks remain. Injuries, early red cards, or a significantly more defensive approach from Everton could significantly reduce the expected number of goals. The betting recommendations are based on recent trends and probabilities, not guarantees. Careful bankroll management and responsible betting are therefore essential.
Manchester United form & record check
The description of Manchester United’s form curve, with strong first halves and weaker second halves, is plausible and well summarized. However, the underlying text contains several facts that contradict the actual affiliations of the club, coach, and players.
The following points are among the most significant errors in the content: Rúben Amorim is not the coach of Manchester United; at the time, he was the coach of Sporting CP. Manchester United was not coached by Amorim until mid-2024. Names such as Benjamin Šeško, Bryan Mbeumo, Noussair Mazraoui, and Amad Diallo do not all belong to Manchester United or to the same team lineup. Benjamin Šeško transferred to RB Leipzig in 2023/24, Bryan Mbeumo plays for Brentford, Noussair Mazraoui was with Ajax and Bayern, respectively, and transferred depending on the season, while Amad Diallo is a United player, but his context with loan stations may vary. Lisandro Martínez is correctly listed as a Manchester United player, and his injury history with a cruciate ligament rupture is basically accurate, but the exact return date would need to be checked with a current source.
The consequence of this is that the tactical and statistical core of the analysis, such as United often leads at half-time, concedes goals in the second half, scores a lot of goals, and personnel shortages cause problems, remains fundamentally useful. However, the assignment of individuals and coaching positions must be reliable, otherwise the entire statement becomes misleading.
It was therefore originally proposed to revise the text in two steps. First, facts such as coaches, squad composition, injuries, and loan status should be corrected based on current sources. Then, a coherent article should be formulated in German, with corrected names, plausible explanations for the recurring patterns in the second halves, and an outlook. It would be necessary to clarify whether Manchester United or another club such as Sporting CP is actually meant and whether current data should be researched.
Coach Rúben Amorim is likely to rely on his preferred 3-4-2-1 system again. Benjamin Sesko is out for several weeks with a knee injury, so Cunha is expected to take over at the top.
It is unclear whether Lisandro Martínez will return directly to the starting lineup after his long injury break. If he is fit, he would form the back three together with de Ligt and Shaw.
Casemiro and Mainoo are expected to occupy the center of midfield. The wing roles and the two attacking number 10 positions would then be filled by the remaining options in the 3-4-2-1 system.
Everton Form & Record Check
Everton are currently in 13th place with 15 points, one point behind Brentford and level on points with Newcastle. The recent 2-0 home win against Fulham brought some relief, at least in the short term, after a 1-1 draw at Sunderland and a clear 3-0 defeat against Tottenham.
The last five league games have been evenly balanced overall, with two wins, one draw, and two defeats. However, the defensive vulnerability remains striking. In the last four games, Everton have conceded at least one goal, and all five games have ended with more than 1.5 goals. So there is still no sign of real defensive stability.
However, there are positive developments. Against Fulham, the build-up play in particular looked more stable. Idrissa Gueye and Michael Keane, who scored in the 81st minute, provided the goals. New signing Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall once again impressed as a creative midfielder with his build-up play and good coordination with Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye.
However, there are still question marks in attack. Thierno Barry, who joined from Villarreal for €32 million, has yet to find his form, having not scored a league goal and failed to register a shot on target against Fulham. His difficult adjustment to the Premier League is increasing the pressure on the coach and the club.
In terms of personnel, there is a threat of short-term absences due to the Africa Cup of Nations, which would affect Ndiaye and Gueye, among others. In addition, Jarrad Branthwaite is out with injury until the end of January. James Garner, on the other hand, is a constant, having started all eleven league games and could become a key player in this thin phase.
For the rest of the season, this means that patience is needed with attackers like Barry, but at the same time, defensive reinforcements or tactical adjustments must help to reduce the number of goals conceded. Garner’s role should be further consolidated, and with absences due to the Africa Cup of Nations, solutions in midfield and central defense need to be found urgently.
Everton are expected to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation. Jarrad Branthwaite is still out with a thigh injury, so Tarkowski and Keane are likely to form the center-back pairing.
In attacking midfield, Iliman Ndiaye, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, and Jack Grealish, the trio that has been working well together recently, could play behind striker Thierno Barry, while Idrissa Gueye and Iroegbunam will provide cover in the center.
Manchester United – Everton Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record of the last five encounters clearly favors Manchester United. United celebrated three wins, plus two draws. Everton has been waiting for a win against the Red Devils since the end of 2023, which underlines United’s relative dominance.
The consistency of the results is striking. The two most recent encounters both ended 2-2, in February 2025 in Liverpool and in August 2025. Prior to that, United won 4-0 in December 2024, 2-0 in March 2024, and 3-0 in November 2023 in an away win at Everton.
Offensive strength and defensive weaknesses are a common theme in these matches. Manchester United scored at least once in all five games, while Everton conceded goals in every encounter. In four of these five games, at least three goals were scored in total, so another high-scoring game is to be expected this time around.
A look at the halves shows a similar picture. United led at halftime in each of the last three encounters, while Everton trailed in all three games. Overall, United scored before halftime in 80% of cases. This speaks for a strong start and early dominance.
This has clear tactical implications for Everton under David Moyes. The early stages need to be better organized; more compact pressing, faster ball recovery in midfield, and more cautious behavior on set pieces could help prevent early goals. Offensive transitions must be played out in a more targeted manner in order to put more pressure on United’s defense.
The statistics and the course of the games so far therefore point to a continuation of United’s offensive strength and ongoing problems in Everton’s defense. Based on these patterns, a game with several goals and a possible early lead for United seems quite likely.
