Only one Premier League match will be played on Boxing Day at Old Trafford, where seventh-placed Manchester United will host eleventh-placed Newcastle on matchday 18, with both teams in the race for European places. Rúben Amorim’s team has picked up 10 points from its last eight league games, is coming off a 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa and has been waiting for a home win for quite some time, which is well below the expectations of a team with Champions League ambitions, especially as captain Bruno Fernandes is out injured and other absences are thinning out the squad. Newcastle, on the other hand, has recently shifted this duel clearly in its favor, winning four of the last five direct duels and beating United 4-1 in April, but combines the 2-2 draw against Chelsea and the run to the Carabao Cup semi-finals with an inconsistent league record, an injury-plagued defense, and an attack in which Gordon has become the central figure. In this situation, the bookmakers see Manchester United as having only a very slight advantage, which adds to the excitement for this Boxing Day game.
- Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester
- Date and time: December 26, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 18)
All in all, many factors point to goals and a slight advantage for United. With odds of around 2.5 for Manchester United and 2.6 for Newcastle, the double chance looks interesting, as Newcastle’s injury-plagued defense and ongoing drought without a clean sheet face an Amorim-led team that is also short at the back but still poses a threat with Fernandes and Cunha. United’s habit of scoring late against tired visitors supports the bet “Both teams to score: Yes” and Over 1.5 goals in the second half.
Manchester United Form & Record Check
Manchester United come into Boxing Day in a somewhat contradictory position. The team is in seventh place with 26 points, just one point behind Sunderland and level with Crystal Palace, yet their recent league record is unconvincing. Ten points from their last eight league games is rather tepid by their standards, and their record from the last five games, with two wins, two draws, and one defeat, including Sunday’s 2-1 loss at Aston Villa, paints a picture of a team oscillating between recovery and relapse. A 4-1 win at Wolves and a 2-1 win at Crystal Palace showed that Amorim’s attacking ideas are working and that United can be aggressive on the counter, while at Old Trafford, the 1-1 draw with West Ham and the 4-4 draw with Bournemouth underlined how difficult it is for the team to finish games, especially as they have not won at home since October, which is clearly not good enough for a club with Champions League aspirations.
Interestingly, the pattern is very clear statistically. In all of their last five league games, several goals were scored, with at least two goals coming after the break in four of those games. United scored in each of those games, often after the break, but also conceded goals in every game, mostly in the first half. A goal difference of just three underscores how fragile the balance between offensive ambition and defensive stability is at the moment.
Part of this inconsistency can be explained by injuries and call-ups. Fernandes’ thigh injury deprives the team of its most important creative center, especially during a busy schedule, while De Ligt, Maguire, and Mainoo are also out and Mazraoui, Mbeumo, and Amad are away with their national teams. In Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 formation, the double six continues to look unsettled, with Ugarte bringing a run of nine games without a win as a league starter, suggesting a midfield lacking in reliable balance. In attack, however, there are signs of a more coherent future, with Mount posing a threat between the lines, Cunha posing the biggest goal threat, and Sesko still needing to adapt but bringing depth.
Once a suitable midfield partner is found and the center backs return, the current fluctuation between fluid offensive phases and vulnerable defense could consolidate into a more stable foundation that is more suited to a sustained challenge for the top four.
Manchester United are likely to stick with Amorim’s familiar 3-4-2-1 formation, so the expected starting lineup is closely based on recent lineups. Lammens should be in goal again, with Yoro, Heaven, and Shaw forming the back three. Dalot and Dorgu are expected to retain their roles on the flanks, while Casemiro and Ugarte will operate as the central duo in front of Mount and Cunha, with Sesko leading the attack. However, this is only a projection, especially as injuries can force changes at any time. De Ligt and Maguire are not certain to be available in central defense, Fernandes and Mainoo are out in midfield, and with Mazraoui, Mbeumo, and Amad away at the Africa Cup of Nations, squad depth is limited, making Mount the most important creative presence behind Sesko and Cunha the primary direct offensive threat.
Newcastle Form & Record Check
Newcastle come to Old Trafford sitting 11th in the table with 23 points, one point behind Everton and effectively level with Brentford, firmly in the thick of a tight mid-table battle rather than challenging for European places as they were last season. Ironically, this is happening in a season in which their midfield trio of Guimarães, Tonali, and Hall often looks like the most convincing part of the team. In the league, they recently had a narrow 2-1 win against Burnley at St. James’ Park, followed by a 2-2 draw away at Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League, which fits with an increasingly open pattern in their games. The surprise 1-0 derby defeat at Sunderland highlighted their well-known away weaknesses, before a 2-1 League Cup win against Fulham quickly calmed the situation and kept their Carabao Cup defense on track.
The 2-2 draw with Chelsea summed up Newcastle well. Woltemade’s early brace, with Gordon providing the assist, gave the visitors a comfortable lead, but they were unable to defend it, and Chelsea’s comeback in the second half once again exposed their difficulty in closing out games. The substitutions of Barnes, Wissa, and Murphy revitalized the offense but brought little control, pointing to deficiencies in game management rather than problems in creating chances.
Statistically, Newcastle are entertaining but fragile. They have scored in four of their last five games, and each of those games has gone over 1.5 goals, with most going over 2.5. At the same time, they have conceded goals in all five games, often after halftime, which fits the image of a team that remains aggressive but becomes vulnerable as soon as the intensity drops. Context is key here, as Eddie Howe is juggling a long injury list that includes key defenders Botman, Burn, Livramento, Trippier, and Krafth, which has inevitably affected the team’s structure and stability. An xG table would rank Newcastle around 9th, suggesting that their underlying performances are slightly better than their 11th place in the table suggests, and with their Carabao Cup defense still alive, expectations remain higher than the bare table suggests.
Newcastle are expected to stick with their usual 4-3-3 formation, with Ramsdale in goal behind a back four of Hall, Thiaw, Schär, and Murphy. With Botman, Burn, Lascelles, Livramento, Trippier, and Krafth all unavailable, this looks the most realistic option at present.
In midfield, Tonali, Bruno Guimarães, and Ramsey should form the three-man center and supply the expected attacking trio of Gordon, Woltemade, and Wissa with balls. Osula’s ankle injury further reduces the depth in attack, so this lineup remains explicitly a projection.
Manchester United – Newcastle Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
In the last five head-to-head matches from 2023 to April 2025, Newcastle won four times, Manchester United only once, and there were no draws. During this period, Newcastle United outscored their opponents 10-4 and also won the last two encounters, including a 4-1 home win in April 2025 and a 2-0 away win in December 2024.
Old Trafford has also been leaning towards Newcastle recently. The visitors won 2-0 there in December 2024 and even 3-0 in the round of 16 of the 2023 League Cup, knocking United out of the competition, while United’s only success in this series was a 3-2 home win in the 2024 league. In Newcastle itself, the hosts won both league games, 1-0 in 2023 and 4-1 in April 2025.
United failed to keep a clean sheet in any of these five games, while Newcastle kept three clean sheets. Four of the five encounters ended with at least two goals, suggesting a fairly open contest in which Newcastle’s defense has looked the more solid so far. The timing of the goals also favors the visitors, as they scored in each of the five games and added to their tally after the break in four of them. United conceded in all five games and shipped goals in the second half in each of the last three encounters, showing that Newcastle often come stronger as the game wears on. The bottom line is that the visitors have a clear psychological and statistical advantage, particularly due to their consecutive wins in April 2025 and December 2024, as well as their consistently good results at home and away, while Manchester United would probably need to start with a much more compact defense to turn this series around, as they have never really controlled Newcastle’s attack in these encounters.
