Manchester United – FC Arsenal
Old Trafford kicks off the Premier League season, Ruben Amorim faces Mikel Arteta, and recent history immediately provides points of friction. The last league duel at the same venue ended 1-1, with Arsenal winning both league games without conceding a goal beforehand. Formally, Arsenal are second in the table and Manchester United 13th, both without any points, but that sharpens the stakes.
Arsenal look solid, with their clear friendly win against Athletic Club and Arteta’s much-quoted “gold digging” mantra fitting in with the transfer power surrounding Viktor Gyökeres and Martín Zubimendi. Captain Martin Ødegaard is well ahead internally. United are coming in with fresh impetus from Benjamin Šeško, Bryan Mbeumo, and Matheus Cunha, but without André Onana and with Lisandro Martínez out for the long term. Many odds have Arsenal ahead.
Manchester United – Arsenal Info
- Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester
- Date and time: 17.08.2025, 17:30
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 1)
Three key markets are in focus: Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and over 1.5 goals after the break. Across all competitions, both teams have scored over 2.5 goals in around 80% of their last five games. Arsenal have scored in each of these games, United in around 80%.
The statistics for this match suggest that it will be an offensive affair. United will be without Lisandro Martínez, while André Onana was at least questionable for the goalkeeper spot and is now reported to be out, meaning that the defense will have to find a new rhythm with Leny Yoro and Matthijs de Ligt or Harry Maguire. Benjamin Sesko, Bryan Mbeumo, and Matheus Cunha will provide noticeable relief for playmaker Bruno Fernandes in attack.
Arsenal bring depth and finishing power with Viktor Gyökeres and Bukayo Saka, while Martín Zubimendi is fit according to Arteta, which opens up higher zones for Ødegaard. Trossard is back in time and dangerous as a substitute. It is precisely this depth on both sides, as well as the experience of open phases at the start of the season, that support the tip for over 1.5 goals in the second half. United games often see late goals, and Arsenal have consistently scored after the break recently.
The only risk with these over tips would be an unusually controlled start. However, with the announced full-backs Ben White and Myles Lewis-Skelly pushing high up the pitch and United’s wings around Amad Diallo, there should be enough space for chances on both sides.
Manchester United form & record check
United are in decent form this summer. In the Summer Series, they beat Bournemouth 4-1, West Ham 2-1 and drew 2-2 with Everton. Before that, they ended the preseason with a 2-0 win over Aston Villa, following a 1-0 defeat to Tottenham in the Europa League final. Mbeumo and Cunha already look integrated in attack, the team is playing more fluidly, but defensively too many second balls are still getting through.
Recent patterns suggest fast-paced games. Over 1.5 goals were scored in 80% of the last five games, with United also scoring in 80% of those games, often after the break. At the same time, the team conceded in 80% of those games but never lost after halftime.
The Red Devils start the season in 13th place, level on points with Manchester City and Newcastle. In terms of personnel, the goalkeeper situation is tricky, with André Onana out with a muscle injury and Lisandro Martínez still sidelined for a long time. Benjamin Sesko is seen internally as an immediate solution, with Wayne Rooney describing him as very important. Amorim may opt for a mobile front line that has power but needs protection against counterattacks.
Our prediction is that United will stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation under Amorim. Bayındır is likely to start in goal as Onana is out with a thigh injury. In front of him will probably be Dalot, de Ligt, Yoro, and Shaw. Martínez is out long term with a cruciate ligament tear, so the central defense is clear. Interestingly, Mazraoui or Maguire would be the obvious alternatives.
In the center, we expect Ugarte and Mainoo as a double six, with Fernandes in front of them. Up front, Sesko will be the clear number nine, with Mbeumo providing width on the right and Cunha starting on the left and looking for the half-spaces. Casemiro or Mount would be alternatives in the center. Garnacho seems uncertain due to his transfer situation and could be left out of the squad despite his quality.
Arsenal Form & Record Check
Arsenal look solid across all competitions, winning 3-0 against Athletic Club, 2-1 at Southampton in the Premier League, 1-0 against Newcastle, 2-2 at Liverpool, and only losing 1-2 at PSG. The penalty area is more pragmatically occupied with Gyökeres, shots are coming faster, and combination play remains the key to success.
It is striking that Arsenal score consistently, even throughout the second half, and never lose the second half. There have been over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five games. A small warning sign, though, as they have conceded twice in a row in the first half recently.
Tactically, it remains a 4-3-3 formation with an emphasis on possession. Zubimendi plays as a defensive midfielder, with Ødegaard leading the line unchallenged. Gyökeres ties up the center backs and opens up space for wingers such as Saka and Martinelli, while Trossard is a lively option. Jesus is out with a cruciate ligament injury. Formally in second place in the table, three points behind Liverpool and level with Aston Villa.
Arsenal are likely to start in their usual 4-3-3 formation, based on our prediction, with Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly, Zubimendi as deep-lying six, Rice and Ødegaard alongside him, and Saka and Martinelli flanking Gyökeres up front. White provides width, Lewis-Skelly pushes forward boldly, Zubimendi stabilizes the center, allowing Ødegaard to drop deeper between the lines.
This is a possible starting XI, but it has not been confirmed. According to Arteta, Gyökeres is fit to play, as is Zubimendi, and Trossard is likely to be in the squad. Jesus is out for a long time with a cruciate ligament rupture, Calafiori with a bruised knee, so Lewis-Skelly looks likely to start on the left. Havertz and Trossard are options from the bench, while Rice will be given more freedom alongside Zubimendi.
H2H Manchester United – Arsenal Head-to-Head & Statistics
The last five encounters paint a clear picture, with Arsenal winning three times after 90 minutes and two draws. Manchester United are still waiting for a win in regular time. In the Premier League, Arsenal won 2-0 in December 2024, 1-0 in May 2024, and the score was 1-1 in March 2025.
Manchester United won twice on penalties, in January 2025 in the FA Cup and in a friendly in 2024. This does little to change the basic pattern: Arsenal were mostly ahead after 90 minutes and scored in all five games, while United conceded goals in each game. In addition, all five games had fewer than 3.5 goals, and four out of five had fewer than 2.5. In four out of five cases, there was no more than one goal before half-time.
The game tends to tip after the break, with Arsenal often scoring the decisive goal after the break. For United, that means staying compact and exploiting late spaces. For Arsenal, it means staying patient and increasing the tempo in the second half. In short, close games with a slight Arsenal advantage over 90 minutes, with penalties a possible door opener for United.
