The bottom team against the sixteenth, both under massive pressure just before the winter break, the Mewa Arena will be the focal point of the relegation battle on Sunday evening. Bottom-placed Mainz 05 welcomes 16th-placed FC St. Pauli on matchday 15. Mainz has seven points and is already four points behind Heidenheim, while St. Pauli has eleven points, two behind Augsburg, and is only just above the relegation zone. For both clubs, this is the last chance before the break to turn the mood around. Mainz’s Bundesliga season has so far fallen well short of expectations, with only two points from their last five league games, but the arrival of Urs Fischer has changed the tone. His team held Bayern to a 2-2 draw and then beat Samsunspor 2-0, a performance that Nadiem Amiri described as the best of the season, which took Mainz into the Conference League round of 16 and gave the new coach his first win. St. Pauli, coached by Alexander Blessin, travel to Mainz with some relief after Martijn Kaars ended their winless league streak with a brace in a 2-1 win over Heidenheim, although they now have to replace suspended midfielder Eric Smith.
- Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz
- Date and time: December 21, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 15)
Our assessment is based on Mainz’s European breakthrough under Fischer and St. Pauli’s rediscovered offensive threat through Kaars and Fujita. With market odds of 2 for Mainz and 4 for St. Pauli, the double chance of Mainz or a draw seems like a sensible option to secure the home momentum, while also covering the draw at odds of 3.3.
Mainz form & record check
Mainz goes into the game against St. Pauli bottom of the Bundesliga table, with seven points and a goal difference of minus 13, four points behind Heidenheim directly above them. Their league record is clearly that of a relegation candidate, but their last five competitive games, with one win, two draws, and two losses, look less chaotic than the table suggests. In Europe, they have even reached the Conference League round of 16 for the first time in their history. Under new coach Urs Fischer, their performance in all competitions is showing a cautious upward trend. The 1-1 draw in Poznan and the 2-2 draw in Munich showed a compact 5-3-2 and 5-4-1 formation, a lot of running and clearer roles for players such as Maloney, Sano and Bøving. The 2-0 win against Samsunspor brought his first victory and confirmed this structure; it could be the first real stabilization. At the same time, the recent 4-0 collapse in Freiburg and the 1-0 home defeat against Gladbach underline how fragile Mainz still is in the league. They continue to concede goals too easily, as they did before Fischer took office, and even in Munich, a strong performance was marred by Potulski’s late foul in the penalty area. The team fluctuates between courageous, organized performances and phases of alarming passivity. Statistically, 80% of their last five games have ended with more than 1.5 goals, and they have conceded goals in just as many games, so control remains fragile despite Batz’s solid form. On a positive note, Widmer, Amiri, Lee, and Weiper posed a real offensive threat against Samsunspor, a game that Amiri described as their best performance of the season. Given the injuries to Zentner, Leitsch, Mwene, and Caci, this increase in collective focus is crucial.
Mainz are expected to stick with Urs Fischer’s three-man back line, effectively a 3-4-2-1 that can drop into a back five without the ball. Batz starts in goal behind Hanche-Olsen, Kohr, and Potulski, who operate as center backs. Fullbacks da Costa and Widmer are expected to provide width and start the pressing on the wings, while keeping the center compact. In central midfield, Sano and Maloney are expected to form a strong running duo, with Lee and Amiri operating between the lines behind Weiper as the lone striker. This remains a predicted lineup, not a confirmed one, so Fischer could still adjust one or two positions. Injured regulars Zentner, Leitsch, Dal, Mwene, Caci, and Kawasaki are not expected to feature.
St. Pauli Form & Record Check
St. Pauli travels to Mainz in a precarious but not hopeless position in the table. The team is in sixteenth place with eleven points and a goal difference of minus thirteen, just two points behind Augsburg and level on points with Heidenheim below them. The table tells a clear story: this is a team still getting used to the pace of the Bundesliga and with little room for error in the relegation battle. In the league, the last four games paint a mixed picture. A 0-1 home defeat to Union Berlin exposed problems in breaking down compact defensive blocks, while the 1-3 defeat at Bayern highlighted individual errors under pressure. The 1-1 draw in Cologne calmed nerves, then the 2-1 win against Heidenheim, achieved despite Smith’s sending-off before half-time, felt like a psychological step forward. The cup success at Borussia Mönchengladbach, a 2-1 away win in the round of 16, underlined that Blessin’s basic idea is working. St. Pauli were compact, aggressive in the tackles and efficient when spaces opened up. Across all competitions, the last five games have yielded two wins, one draw, and two defeats, so the curve is pointing upwards, even if real mid-table stability has not yet been achieved. Statistically, their games are open, but not always in a way that Blessin would like. St. Pauli has conceded goals in all of its last five games, and in four of them, at least two goals were scored after the break. First halves are usually tight, second halves tend to be chaotic, possibly because the high pressing takes its toll and leaves Vasilj and the back line vulnerable late on. Offensively, the emergence of Kaars as a genuine Bundesliga option has changed the dynamic. His brace against Heidenheim ended the recent winless run in the league and came after intelligent play between the lines from Fujita. The downside is that Smith’s suspension for the Mainz game and Nemeth’s continued absence remove important stability in the build-up play, forcing Sands or Irvine to take on more responsibility.
St. Pauli are expected to stick with a 3-4-2-1 formation, as predicted in the line-up, with Vasilj behind a back three of Wahl, Smith, and Mets. Sands and Irvine should once again form the midfield axis, with Pyrka and Oppie providing width on the wings, while Fujita and Pereira operate between the lines. Up front, the in-form Kaars is the obvious candidate for the role at the top after his recent Bundesliga goals. This is only a predicted lineup, and late changes are always possible. With Spari still out, Vasilj remains the natural choice in goal, while Nemeth’s continued absence confirms Wahl, Smith, and Mets as the predicted back three. From the bench, Saliakas, Ritzka, Metcalfe, or Afolayan could realistically be brought on to adjust the width, pressing intensity, or offensive profile during the game.
Mainz – St. Pauli Head-to-Head & Statistics
Mainz has taken all twelve points in its last four Bundesliga encounters. The overall record is 11:3, which underscores how one-sided this matchup has been so far. There have been no draws, every game has produced a clear winner, at least two goals have been scored in every game in this series, and Mainz has never been behind at the end, so St. Pauli is still looking for a starting point here. In February 2025, Mainz won 2-0 at home, following a 3-0 away win in 2024. These consecutive results mean that St. Pauli has not scored in the last two encounters, after the club was successful in the first two meetings in 2010 and 2011. The more recent pattern suggests that Mainz now controls both penalty areas much more comfortably. Home and away splits hardly change this story. Mainz has won twice at home and twice away, scoring at least two goals in each game. Mainz also scored in the second half in all four games, while St. Pauli always conceded goals after the break. This consistent late effectiveness suggests that Mainz finishes games with more physical and tactical clarity. Three of the four duels have produced at least three goals, with only the February 2025 encounter ending 2-0. The history between the teams therefore suggests open games rather than close draws, and given St. Pauli’s record of four consecutive defeats in this direct comparison, psychological pressure could also play a role, even though both squads have changed significantly over the years.
