While Mainz 05 is currently enjoying a flawless run internationally, the club is in danger of falling into the relegation zone in the Bundesliga. On Friday evening, Mainz welcomes TSG 1899 Hoffenheim to the Mewa Arena, and the starting positions could hardly be more different: Mainz are in 17th place with only five points and have not won in six Bundesliga games, while Hoffenheim are in sixth place with 19 points.
Mainz’s home record is particularly worrying, with the team failing to win a league game at the Mewa Arena since February. Interestingly, things are going better internationally, with Mainz celebrating three wins from three games in the Conference League so far. However, the double burden seems to be taking its toll, with Europa League or Conference League games regularly followed by Bundesliga defeats.
Hoffenheim comes into the game with a lot of confidence after four wins in their last five league games, but there is unrest in the background: the resignation of president Jörg Albrecht for health reasons and personnel changes at management level are weighing on the club. The fact that the team is still performing consistently is a positive sign for coach Christian Ilzer. In terms of head-to-head results, Hoffenheim won the last encounter 2-0 away in April, but over a longer period, the statistics slightly favor Mainz with three Mainz wins, one draw, and one Hoffenheim defeat from the last five encounters. Mainz urgently needs to remedy its poor home form to avoid slipping further into the relegation zone, while Hoffenheim appears to be in better form and more consistent, but internal turmoil could be a factor. A realistic result would be a narrow away win for Hoffenheim or a draw; a home win would be a surprise, but not out of the question if Mainz finally finds its home form.
- Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz
- Date and time: November 21, 2025, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 11)
The betting ideas you mention are understandable and are clearly based on the form, injury situation, and recent results of both teams. The tip “Hoffenheim to win” with odds of around 2.6 is attractive given Mainz’s significantly worse position in the table. A tip on over 3.5 goals is riskier, but fits with the recent offensive statistics of both teams and the many absences in Mainz’s defense. The most plausible option seems to be “Both teams to score: Yes,” as Mainz scores regularly and Hoffenheim often concedes goals despite its good scoring rate.
Mainz form & record check
Mainz is in deep crisis, with only five points from ten Bundesliga games and 17th place, level on points with Heidenheim, after a series of four defeats and one draw from their last five league games. The game in Frankfurt, a 0-1 defeat with a late goal from Doan, underlined the team’s lack of threat in attack.
Particularly striking is their poor home form, with four of their first five league games at the Mewa Arena lost, plus a 2-0 defeat to Stuttgart in the cup. In contrast, the team looks liberated in the Conference League, winning all three group games, including a 2-1 victory over Fiorentina. This discrepancy points to problems with double burden or mental tension in league play.
There are big gaps in the offense, with the departure of Jonathan Burkardt weighing heavily. His successors Hollerbach, Weiper, Sieb, and Bøving have scored only two Bundesliga goals between them. In addition, Mainz has not scored a single goal from set pieces this season, even though this area typically accounts for 30 to 35% of goals, and sporting director Heidel has identified this as a training deficit.
Outlook: The situation is precarious, with Mainz only two points ahead of St. Pauli. Short-term measures are needed, such as more intensive set-piece and mental training, possible personnel adjustments in attack, and targeted load management due to the double burden, so that Henriksen can initiate a turnaround. Otherwise, the downward spiral threatens to continue.
Lineup: Henriksen is likely to rely on his usual back three, with Hanche-Olsen, Maloney, and Kohr in defense, Widmer and Mwene on the wings, and Sano and Kawasaki in central midfield.
Travel concerns: Both Japanese midfielders will first have to digest the trip to Asia and the associated jet lag, which could affect their freshness and coordination at the start of the game.
Injury problems: Amiri and Caci, two important pillars, are still missing. Amiri’s creativity in the center is particularly missed, but Caci is expected to return soon.
Offensive assessment: Nebel could provide impetus behind Lee and Hollerbach as playmaker. However, the striker position remains a general weak point that may need to be concealed tactically.
Hoffenheim form & record check
Hoffenheim is currently on a strong run, with four wins from its last five Bundesliga games putting the Kraichgauers in sixth place, just one point behind Leverkusen. Victories against Leipzig (3-1), Wolfsburg (3-2), and St. Pauli (3-0) show a team that scores regularly and gains momentum, especially in the second half.
Internal turmoil, including the resignation of President Albrecht and the replacement of two managing directors, does not seem to have destabilized the team under coach Christian Ilzer so far. Ilzer has made his mark early on, even if some victories have not been entirely convincing.
One downside was the early exit from the DFB Cup against St. Pauli, where Hoffenheim lost on penalties after a 1-1 draw, even though they had beaten the same team 3-0 in the league three weeks earlier. Such slip-ups raise questions about consistency, especially in crucial games.
Offensively, things are going well, with Hoffenheim scoring in all five of their most recent games, often multiple times. Defensively, however, problems remain, with the team conceding goals in four of their last five games. The situation is exacerbated by injuries to key players such as Gendrey, Machida, and Hlozek, with Hlozek’s absence in particular limiting the offensive options.
Hoffenheim’s expected lineup looks coherent and fits in with Christian Ilzer’s approach so far. Ilzer is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 3-4-2-1 formation. Hranac, Hajdari, and Bernardo are expected to form the back three, with Burger and Prömel in central midfield. The absence of Hlozek is a heavy blow, so Lemperle is likely to take over as striker. Kramaric and Avdullahu would probably provide the creative impetus behind him.
Mainz – Hoffenheim Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last five encounters, Mainz has had the upper hand with three wins, Hoffenheim won once, and there was one draw.
Mainz has scored in each of the last four head-to-head matches, while Hoffenheim has conceded at least one goal in each of those games.
Mainz’s victories have all come at home, including a 4-1 win in 2024 and a 1-0 win in December 2024, but the most recent match in April 2025 ended in a 2-0 win for Hoffenheim on their home turf.
The games have mostly been low-scoring, with four of the five games remaining below 2.5 goals, and the first halves of the last three encounters have been particularly uneventful, so decisions are often made late or by a narrow margin.
