FSV Mainz 05 – 1.FC Cologne
Mainz has led Cologne at halftime in three consecutive meetings, but on Sunday, two teams with completely different prospects for the new Bundesliga season will face each other at the MEWA ARENA. While the 05ers under Bo Henriksen have put together an impressively broad squad despite the departure of striker Jonathan Burkardt and are also playing in the Conference League, Cologne are returning to the top flight after being promoted directly under new coach Lukas Kwasniok. The recent history between the two teams is encouraging from Mainz’s point of view: although the last meeting ended 1-1, interestingly, the Cathedral City side failed to score in the first half in any of their previous encounters. Kwasniok’s debut in the DFB Cup against Regensburg was revealing, as Cologne only saved themselves from another cup embarrassment with two late goals in stoppage time. Mainz looked much more confident in their 1-0 win in Dresden, even though coach Henriksen was shown a red card. Nadiem Amiri shone with his free-kick goal and will lead the team as captain, as Silvan Widmer is currently not a regular starter. The bookmakers see the hosts as clear favorites despite Cologne’s promotion euphoria, which could also be due to the fact that the Geißböcke have not yet solved their offensive problems and important transfer targets such as Raphael Obermair remain blocked.
- Venue: MEWA ARENA, Mainz
- Date and time: 24.08.2025, 15:30
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 1)
Mainz form & record check
The 05ers are on the verge of the Bundesliga kick-off after a mixed pre-season with mixed signals. The 1-2 defeat in Trondheim against Rosenborg a few days ago is likely to have a lasting effect, even though Amiri gave his side an early lead, only for them to concede a bitter equaliser in the closing stages. On a positive note, they secured a confident 1-0 win against Dynamo Dresden in the DFB Cup, with Amiri once again making the difference with a spectacular free kick. Bo Henriksen was shown a red card for unsportsmanlike conduct in the 86th minute, but his team did not let that distract them and held on to their narrow lead. Mainz has scored in all five of its most recent games, but has also conceded goals in four of those five matches. The pattern is particularly noticeable in the first halves, where Mainz regularly scores but often looks vulnerable defensively. The transfer dispute surrounding Nelson Weiper is currently overshadowing preparations. The 20-year-old has been dropped from the squad and is now only training with the U23s after rejecting contract talks. Henriksen must therefore reshuffle his attack while also coping with the loss of Jonathan Burkardt. Benedict Hollerbach is expected to provide new impetus here.
Coach Bo Henriksen is likely to stick with the familiar 3-4-2-1 formation that proved successful for Mainz against Dresden. Zentner will start in goal, while da Costa, Kohr, and Bell will form the back three. In midfield, Amiri, who wore the captain’s armband against Dresden, is likely to play a central role alongside Sano again. Mwene and Caci are set to start on the wings, while Nebel and Lee are likely to play behind Hollerbach in the attacking zone. The absence of Maxim Dal due to his cruciate ligament injury does not play a major role in the starting line-up, but it does limit the options on the bench. After the successful cup performance, it remains to be seen whether Henriksen will stick to the same basic formation or make tactical adjustments ahead of the Bundesliga start.
Cologne form & record check
1. FC Köln are starting the new Bundesliga season in a mixed position. In their most recent appearance in Regensburg (2-1), Lukas Kwasniok’s team showed clear weaknesses but saved themselves from another cup debacle against the second division side with two goals in stoppage time. The Cologne team is showing a remarkable pattern: in the last five games, they went into halftime without scoring in 80% of the cases, but then developed significantly more punch in the second half. This late efficiency could well become a trademark under the new coach. In terms of personnel, the promoted team continues to struggle. Kilian and Pauli are both out with injuries, while Christensen is suspended. At least new signing Özkacar impressed in Regensburg and brings international experience with him. Incidentally, the Turkish player wears his first name on his jersey because “Özkacar” is difficult for his teammates to pronounce. The offense remains problematic. Despite intensive efforts, the club has not managed to offload its weak strikers, forcing Cologne to start the league with a suboptimal attacking line-up. The much-coveted Obermair from Paderborn would help, but negotiations are dragging on, even though the player himself wants to move.
Coach Kwasniok is likely to stick with a back three after his successful cup debut in Regensburg. The predicted 3-4-2-1 formation with Zieler in goal and Hübers, Schmied, and Özkacar in defense seems likely. The Turkish loanee has already made a strong impression. Martel and Jóhannesson could take the central roles in midfield, while Sebulonsen and Maina occupy the wide positions. With Christensen suspended and Kilian and Pauli injured, Kwasniok has fewer options available in defense. Waldschmidt is likely to lead the line up front, supported by Bülter and Kaminski.
H2H Mainz – Cologne Head-to-head & statistics
The head-to-head record between Mainz and Cologne tells an interesting story in recent years. The five most recent encounters have been evenly balanced, with one win apiece and three draws. The last meeting in April 2024 ended in a goal-filled 1-1 draw in Mainz. However, there is a clear pattern in the first halves: Mainz led at half-time in three consecutive games, while Cologne did not lead after 45 minutes in any of the last five matches. This streak began with Mainz’s spectacular 5-0 home win in 2022, when they were already well ahead at half-time. Nevertheless, the Rhineland neighbors often part ways with a draw. The aforementioned rout was followed by three draws in a row, including a goalless 0-0 draw in Cologne in December 2023. The games usually only really get going after the break, although Mainz regularly takes the lead early on. Cologne secured its last victory against Mainz in April 2022 with a 3-2 win at home. Since then, Effzeh has been waiting for three points against Mainz, but has only suffered one real defeat. The record suggests that the two sides are evenly matched, even if Mainz has had the better start to recent games.
Our focus on ‘Under 1.5 goals – 1st half’ is based on the remarkable fact that both Mainz and Cologne have offered exactly this scenario in 80% of their last five games. Both teams need time to find their way into the game, and the early stages are usually characterized by tactical caution. While the bookmakers rate Mainz as clear favorites at 1.9, they may be overlooking the general weakness of both teams in attack, as Cologne are still struggling to get rid of their struggling strikers, as recent reports show, and Mainz have to compensate for the loss of Burkardt. Our second tip, “Both teams to score: Yes,” is backed up by Cologne’s defensive problems, where key defenders are missing, while Mainz has scored in all of its last five games. Amiri, a free kick specialist who already proved his skills against Dresden, could be a factor here. The bold tip of ‘Over 2.5 goals’ may seem riskier, but is supported by the fact that both teams have conceded goals in 80% of their games. Mainz’s Conference League exertions in Trondheim could also cause fatigue, which Cologne could exploit in the second half.
