FSV Mainz 05 – Bayern Munich
Our Mainz – Bayern prediction is: Bayern to win – 9.12 odds
- Bayern won ten of their first 13 BL games
- Mainz have already lost four home games this season
- FCB won the last duel in Mainz 4-0 in the DFB Cup
On Saturday afternoon, the Bundesliga clash between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Bayern Munich awaits us. Mainz had to accept a defeat for the first time after the cup defeat against Munich after four unbeaten games and are currently ranked ninth in the table. Bayern are still undefeated this season and go into this game as league leaders.
On the last match day, FSV had to accept a very bitter 3:4 defeat in Wolfsburg. After a very strong performance by the 05ers and taking the lead three times, they conceded a more than questionable goal in the 94th minute, which sealed their first away defeat since the 1:8 at Bayern.
Alex Feuerherdt from the DFB Referee GmbH explained that due to the dense Mainz defense and the camera perspectives, no calibrated line could be drawn to prove beyond doubt a possible offside position of Wind, in addition, the camera that should have been installed at this height had failed.
Therefore, the original decision by referee Timo Gerach to award the goal to make it 3-4 remained in place. However, Mainz have won their last two home games against Dortmund and Hoffenheim and are showing a positive upward trend in form.
Bayern, on the other hand, have a long list of injuries to contend with. Currently, key players like Davies, Neuer, Coman and Palhinha are out. Top scorer Harry Kane is more than questionable – it will only become clear just before the game whether he will be fit to play or not. In the last league game, Bayern won 4-2 against Heidenheim and remain unbeaten this BL season. During the week, there was a 5-1 win in the Champions League against Shaktar Donetsk. In the last four home games, Mainz won three times against Bayern. You can find out whether this can happen again this time in our Mainz – Bayern tip.
Mainz – Bayern info
- Date & time: 14.12.2024, 3:30 pm
- Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz
- Competition: Bundesliga, match day 14
- TV broadcast/livestream: SKY
Mainz Form & Bilanz Check
In their last Bundesliga game, FSV Mainz 05 conceded their second-highest defeat in Bundesliga history, 1-8 away to FC Bayern Munich in March 2024, only surpassed by a 0-8 at RB Leipzig in November 2019. Mainz have also suffered setbacks at home against Munich of late, including a 4-0 defeat in the second round of the DFB Cup at the end of October.
At the same time, Mainz have an impressive Bundesliga home record against league leaders such as Bayern Munich. They have won their last three home games against the current league leaders, with all three successes coming against the record champions. Nationwide, only Borussia Mönchengladbach have a longer home winning streak against league leaders (four wins).
Currently, Mainz is on an upward trend at home: the last two Bundesliga home games were won, which is twice as many wins as in the seven home games before that (one win, three draws, three defeats). Since coach Bo Henriksen took office in mid-February, only four Bundesliga clubs have earned more home points than Mainz (25).
Burkardt with record season
With an average age of 27 years and 352 days, FSV Mainz 05 has the second-oldest starting eleven this Bundesliga season. Jonathan Burkardt, one of the team’s outstanding players, is the top German scorer this Bundesliga season with ten goals. He was also the first Mainz player to score double digits in a Bundesliga first half. With a total of 33 Bundesliga goals, Burkardt is now the club’s joint-leading scorer in the top German division, along with Karim Onisiwo.
Mainz are also among the league leaders in pressing: with 105 high ball wins, they share second place in this category with VfB Stuttgart, behind Bayern Munich (129). In the PPDA benchmark (opponent passes per defensive action), Mainz are in third place in the league (11.4).
Mainz facts & analysis
- Last duel Mainz lost 0:4
- Last three home games against league leaders Munich all won
- Burkardt most successful German goal scorer this BL season – ten goals
Bayern Form & Bilanz Check
With 33 points from 13 Bundesliga games, FC Bayern Munich are enjoying their best season since 2015/16. Back then, under Pep Guardiola, Munich also remained unbeaten in the first 13 games, but they managed 37 points. In the current season, Bayern have ten wins and three draws.
Individually, the Bayern players are also convincing: Jamal Musiala is not only the second most prolific German scorer behind Jonathan Burkardt with eight goals this season, but also has the best conversion rate of big chances among all players with at least seven big chances this season at 75%. Musiala has scored in each of his last six Bundesliga away games, a run that makes him the second-youngest player in the league’s history to achieve such a feat. He also scored his first hat-trick for Bayern in the 4-0 DFB Cup win in Mainz.
Kompany following in Guardiola’s footsteps
Vincent Kompany’s team not only impresses offensively, but also through effective pressing. Bayern has won the most high balls in the league (129) and, with a PPDA value of 9.0, allows the fewest passes by opponents outside their own defensive third before a defensive action.
Kompany has already achieved something historic as a coach: he did not lose any of his first 13 Bundesliga games (ten wins, three draws). Only Pep Guardiola and Karl-Heinz Feldkamp have achieved this before him. With 33 points from their first 13 games, Kompany is on a par with Feldkamp and only surpassed by Guardiola, who took 35 points in 2013/14.
Bayern also have the third-youngest starting XI in the league, just behind Mainz, with an average age of 27 years and 309 days.
Bayern Facts & Analysis
- Best season since 2015/16
- Musiala with the best conversion rate of big chances
- Still unbeaten this BL season
In contrast to the last game, Mainz coach Bo Henriksen will have to do without the strong Da Costa in central defense. Either Hanche Olsen or Moritz Jens, who are both fit again, could stand in for him. The line-up should again be reflected in a 3-4-2-1 system.
Bayern will line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation under coach Vincent Kompany. They have to deal with a number of injuries and we can look forward to seeing which team Kompany will surprise us with at the weekend.
Mainz – Bayern head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head comparison speaks clearly in favor of FC Bayern Munich. In a total of 42 meetings, 36 of them in the Bundesliga, four in the DFB Cup and two in the Telekom Cup, the Munich team celebrated 31 victories. Mainz 05, on the other hand, only managed to win seven games, while four encounters ended in a draw. The goal difference also underlines the dominance of the record champions, with 124 goals scored by them compared to just 48 for their opponents.
Head-to-head (H2H)
