FC Liverpool vs. FC Everton
The big Merseyside derby returns to Anfield Road, where league leaders Liverpool face a much-improved FC Everton. Arne Slot’s team is riding a wave of success after a dramatic 3-2 Champions League win over Atletico Madrid, with Virgil van Dijk scoring the decisive header in stoppage time. Liverpool has a perfect record after four matchdays, with four wins from four games, and it is noteworthy that the Reds have scored late winners in the last ten minutes of every game this season. With a three-point lead over Arsenal, they have already established a comfortable position. David Moyes’ Everton, on the other hand, are surprising everyone with their 6th place in the table and defensive stability, reflected in three clean sheets in five games. Jack Grealish was named Player of the Month for his four assists in the first three league games, underlining the Toffees’ new attacking prowess. The last meeting in April ended in a narrow 1-0 win for Liverpool. The encounters are usually low-scoring, with often less than 2.5 goals and cautious first halves. Despite Everton’s good early form, the betting market sees Liverpool as clear favorites for Saturday’s derby.
- Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
- Date and time: 09/20/2025, 1:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 5)
Liverpool Form & Record Check
Liverpool has had a flawless start to the season and is already at the top of the table after four matchdays. The Reds have won all four league games and lead Arsenal by twelve points, who are three points behind. This perfect starting position reflects what the statistics already suggest: Liverpool has won all of its last five games.
The recent 3-2 win against Atlético Madrid in the Champions League highlighted both the strengths and weaknesses of Arne Slot’s team. After early goals from Robertson and Salah, the team came under pressure in the second half and had to save the win with van Dijk’s header in stoppage time. This drama shows that, despite the impressive results, Liverpool has not yet found consistency over 90 minutes.
Liverpool’s accuracy in the second half is particularly striking. The team has scored after the break in all five of its most recent games, which speaks for Slot’s tactical adjustments and the quality of his substitutions. At the same time, the laborious 1-0 win at Burnley revealed that the Reds need patience against defensively minded opponents. Salah’s converted penalty in stoppage time saved three important points there.
Personnel remains an issue, even if the absences are manageable. Jones is out with a muscle injury until the end of September, while Bajcetic continues to struggle with thigh problems. Rotation will be crucial in the upcoming double burden of league and Champions League games, especially as the intense pressing system is physically demanding.
Liverpool are likely to line up in the tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation that Arne Slot has favored this season. Alisson will be in goal, while Frimpong, Konaté, van Dijk, and Robertson are expected to form the back four.
The midfield could be occupied by Gravenberch and Mac Allister in the center, with Curtis Jones still out until the end of September due to a muscle injury. In the attacking trio, we expect Szoboszlai, Wirtz, and Salah, while Isak should take the lead.
Chiesa is still unavailable due to his Champions League eligibility, and Stefan Bajcetic also remains sidelined with a thigh injury. Nevertheless, the bench offers enough quality with options such as Gakpo, Ekitiké, and the promising young talent Ngumoha.
Everton Form & Record Check
Everton are in much better shape than in previous years and, after four matchdays, are surprisingly in sixth place in the table. The Toffees have only suffered one defeat in the league so far, a 1-0 loss at Leeds on the opening day of the season. After that, the team stabilized noticeably and picked up seven points from the following three games.
Particularly striking is the defensive solidity under David Moyes. In five competitive games, Everton has kept three clean sheets, with goalkeeper Pickford still unbeaten at the new Hill Dickinson Stadium. Last weekend’s goalless draw with Aston Villa underlined this stability, even though the team missed a number of good scoring opportunities.
The offense has benefited greatly from the loan signing of Jack Grealish, who has already collected four assists in three league games and was named Premier League Player of the Month for August. This creativity has often been Everton’s weak point in recent years. The team has been particularly cautious in terms of goal density, with 80% of their last five games ending with less than 2.5 goals.
However, their position in the table belies how tight it is in the middle of the table. Only one point separates Everton from Chelsea in fifth place, while Sunderland lurk behind them on the same number of points. Injury concerns surrounding Branthwaite, Mykolenko, and Patterson weaken the defense, which could be a problem against Liverpool’s attacking power.
Manager David Moyes is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 system at Everton. However, personnel problems in defense are forcing him to come up with creative solutions: with Branthwaite, Mykolenko, and Patterson all out, three key defensive players are unavailable. Keane could play in the back four alongside Tarkowski and O’Brien, while Coleman would have to help out at right-back.
In midfield, the double six of Gueye and Iroegbunam should provide stability. Grealish, who was recently named Premier League Player of the Month, should continue his strong form and could provide creative impetus alongside Dewsbury-Hall and Garner. Up front, Beto is likely to be preferred to Barry.
H2H Liverpool – Everton Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The Reds have clearly dominated the last five encounters between Liverpool and Everton. They have won three times, with Everton winning once and there being one draw. The most recent meeting in April 2025 ended in a narrow 1-0 win for Liverpool.
The series has not been straightforward. After three consecutive Liverpool wins, Everton pulled off a surprise 2-0 victory at Goodison Road in April 2024. In February 2025, the Toffees fought back to earn a 2-2 draw at home, before Liverpool regained the upper hand.
There is a clear pattern in the course of the game: the first half of the last three encounters has been low-scoring, with less than 1.5 goals. In general, four of the five duels have seen between 1.5 and 2.5 goals, indicating balanced but not goalless games.
Liverpool’s second-half strength against their city rivals is particularly striking. In four of the five most recent encounters, the Reds have scored at least one goal after the break. Everton, on the other hand, have regularly conceded goals in the second half during this period.
Liverpool have developed a remarkable mentality under Slot: In every league game this season, they have scored the decisive goal in the last ten minutes, most recently through van Dijk’s dramatic header against Atletico Madrid. This late fitness and tireless pressing style cause opponents to break down in the closing stages. Everton are much more structured under Moyes, but Grealish has already collected four assists in three league appearances, adding new dimensions to their attack.
The value of over 2.5 goals seems justified at odds of 1.6. Liverpool have scored at least three goals in three of their five games, while Everton have conceded at least three goals in each of their last two away games, despite playing defensively. Liverpool’s last three home games have seen an average of four goals per game. The betting tip on over 3.5 goals at 2.6 offers even more lucrative value, especially as four of Liverpool’s five wins have seen at least four goals in total. With both Everton full-backs Branthwaite and Mykolenko injured, the flanks could be particularly vulnerable. The first half over 2.5 goals at 6.1 is quite risky, but Liverpool have scored within six minutes in three consecutive games, while Everton often come under early pressure away from home. The betting market sees Liverpool as clear favorites at 1.5, but our analysis suggests that goals from both sides could be the real value in this game.
