FC Liverpool – AFC Bournemouth
A planned tribute to Diogo Jota sets the tone when the Premier League kicks off at Anfield on Friday evening, August 15. Defending champions Liverpool, under coach Arne Slot, host Andoni Iraola’s AFC Bournemouth, the first team to set the pace this season, with both sides still without points.
Liverpool are coming off a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace in the Community Shield, with the decision coming on penalties. The offense, with new signings Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitiké, and Jeremie Frimpong, already looks harmonious, but the defense still lacks balance. Slot is looking for stability, while transfers such as Marc Guehi and Giovanni Leoni and departures such as Darwin Núñez are changing the balance, and several absences in defense are making planning difficult.
Bournemouth is in a state of upheaval after some expensive departures, with Bafodé Diakité possibly making his debut in central defense. The last competitive game ended 0-2 against West Ham, and the dress rehearsal was bumpy. A tough test awaits at Anfield, with the recent record clearly in Liverpool’s favor, including five wins in a row, often with plenty of goals.
Liverpool – Bournemouth Info
- Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
- Date and time: 15.08.2025, 21:00
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 1)
In short, our tips are for over 3.5 goals, both teams to score and the riskier call of a draw in the second half. The data supports this: Liverpool have had over 3.5 goals in 80% of their last five games and conceded in each of those encounters. At the same time, their offense is gaining momentum, as underscored by the 2-2 draw in the Community Shield with goals from Wirtz and Ekitiké and the impressive Frimpong.
Tactically, Arne Slot is pressing more aggressively and playing a higher 4-2-3-1, which opens up space behind the back line. In terms of personnel, the defense is shaky, Quansah has been sold, Gomez is missing, the club is chasing Marc Guehi and considering Giovanni Leoni, which fits with the observation that Liverpool is currently allowing easier chances against them. This leads to both teams scoring, with Bournemouth scoring in 80% of their recent games and even scoring more than 1.5 goals in each of their last five. Following the departures of Zabarnyi, Kerkez, and Kepa, the defense has been rebuilt, with new signing Bafodé Diakité likely to start immediately. Stability is the goal, but short-term coordination problems are possible. Wirtz and Salah find gaps, while Bournemouth has the pace for counterattacks.
A draw in the second half is the likely outcome based on recent patterns. Liverpool has lost 80% of the second halves in its last five games and has drawn three times in its last five matches, while Bournemouth often picks up the pace after the break. A highly intense start with early pressure from Liverpool could tip the balance in favor of a more even second half, while the emotional backdrop of the tribute to Jota and the defending champions’ opening pressure could cause the game to fluctuate.
Liverpool Form & Record Check
Across all competitions, Liverpool look strong going forward but vulnerable at the back. In the Community Shield, they drew 2-2 with Crystal Palace after extra time, losing 3-2 on penalties. At the end of the season, they drew 1-1 with Palace, 2-2 with Arsenal and lost 3-1 at Chelsea and 3-2 at Brighton.
The patterns are clear: Liverpool scored in all five games and also conceded goals in every game. Four of the five second halves were lost, which is a warning sign. All games had more than 1.5 goals, often even more than 3.5. The switch to a 4-2-3-1 formation with higher, man-oriented pressing opens up space. Interestingly, Wirtz is pushing up very high, with Szoboszlai and Jones taking on unfamiliar defensive duties.
Up front, Wirtz, Ekitiké and the dynamic Frimpong are delivering faster than expected, which is why Núñez’s departure is less significant. Defensively, options are lacking, with Gomez struggling with Achilles problems, Bradley and Bajcetic out and Quansah gone. Van Dijk has looked unusually error-prone recently, including conceding a penalty. Gravenberch should be back for the league opener. At the same time, Konaté’s contract talks are ongoing, Leoni is almost ready to sign, and the trail to Isak remains hot.
In the league, the table is still blank. Liverpool starts in 12th place, level on points with Leeds and Manchester City, and the bar is high as defending champions. The rapid offensive integration is ahead of schedule, while the rest of the defense and the defense of the penalty area remain below par. It could be that the first few matchdays remain high-scoring and somewhat wild until Slots’ structure takes hold.
Our prediction: Slot sticks with a 4-2-3-1 formation. Alisson in goal, Frimpong pushes up high, Kerkez holds the width, van Dijk and Konaté secure the center. Jones plays alongside Szoboszlai in the double six, allowing Wirtz to appear as a free ten between the lines. Up front, Ekitiké starts as a mobile number nine, Salah comes in from the right, and Gakpo moves in. After the recent wobbles, balance in the center is crucial.
Gomez is expected to miss out with Achilles tendon problems, while Bradley and Bajcetic are out with hamstring injuries, leaving Frimpong with little competition on the right. Robertson would be an option for Kerkez. Mac Allister and Gravenberch are available as alternatives for the center, with Gravenberch expected back after paternity leave. Isak remains a transfer topic, but Ekitiké would currently be the obvious choice up front. All predictions, not confirmed.
Bournemouth Form & Record Check
Bournemouth comes to Anfield in inconsistent form. Their last five games in all competitions have seen wins against Leicester (2-0) and Everton (3-0), defeats at Manchester City (1-3) and Manchester United (1-4), and most recently against West Ham (0-2). Against West Ham, they lacked momentum in the final third, with simple losses of possession before the 0-1 goal proving costly. Despite numerous changes, the break did not bring any real stability.
Interestingly, the Cherries have been slow starters. They have never scored before the break in this run, with all four of their goals coming after the break. In addition, all five games have ended with at least two goals, suggesting open second halves. One might think that Iraola’s team needs rhythm, but in doing so they risk falling behind early, which opponents with power, such as United, quickly punish.
Their form is also suffering from restructuring at the back. Following the departures in the first line, new signing Bafodé Diakité is expected to bring order immediately, and a debut is conceivable. Lewis Cook is out until mid-September, Ryan Christie is doubtful, and Enes Ünal will be out for longer. Evanilson came off the bench against West Ham, and Tyler Adams looks ready. Overall, there are some good signs, but defensive coordination and penetration are inconsistent.
Our prediction: Bournemouth will stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation. Petrovic in goal, Araujo, Diakité, Senesi and Truffert at the back. Adams will play alongside Scott in the double pivot, with Brooks, Kluivert, and Tavernier in front of them and Evanilson up front. Diakité could start straight away after his transfer, especially as many regulars have been sold in defense. That seems logical, even if it remains to be confirmed.
This is a possible lineup, but not confirmed. Christie is likely to be out with an unclear fitness status, Cook with a knee injury until September 13, 2025, and Ünal with a cruciate ligament rupture until October 18, 2025. Alternatives include Billing in central midfield and Sinisterra, Ouattara, or Semenyo in attack. Interestingly, Adams could vary the pressing intensity depending on how the game progresses.
H2H Liverpool – Bournemouth Head-to-head & statistics
Liverpool have won the last five head-to-head matches. In February 2025, they won 2-0 away, and in September 2024, they won 3-0. Prior to that, they won 4-0 in 2024, 2-1 in 2023 in the League Cup, and 3-1 in 2023. No draws, no slip-ups.
That adds up to 14:2 goals, an average of 2.8 goals per game for Liverpool. Four of the five games had over 2.5 goals, and all had over 1.5. Liverpool kept a clean sheet three times, while Bournemouth only scored in two of those games.
Interestingly, Liverpool were ahead in four of the last five first halves and also scored after the break in each of the last three head-to-head matches. You would think that the game rarely swings, because there have been clear decisions throughout this period. Dominance yes, but it is based above all on consistency in the penalty area.
