Important Facts
- Leverkusen is sixth (29 points), three behind Leipzig and only two ahead of Frankfurt; Bremen is 13th (18) with only a one-point cushion over Hamburg.
- Leverkusen is struggling with four defeats in six Bundesliga games and most recently a 2-0 loss to Olympiacos; in four of their last five games, they conceded goals before the break.
- Bremen has been waiting for a win for seven league games and often slows down after the break; in the 3-3 draw against Frankfurt, Njinmah, Stage, and Milosevic scored despite a late equalizer.
- Leverkusen is missing Flekken, Tella, Tapsoba, and Ben Seghir, which limits their build-up and defense; Bremen also travel with defensive absences (Wöber, Stark, Agu, Weiser).
- The last five league encounters have produced 20 goals (4.0 on average) and four times over 2.5; with odds of 1.6 for Leverkusen, “Both teams to score” and over 3.5 goals are a good bet.
A lot depends on small details in this match, and that’s what makes it so interesting. On matchday 19, SV Werder Bremen visits the BayArena on Saturday, where Bayer 04 Leverkusen, under Kasper Hjulmand, is in sixth place with 29 points and urgently needs momentum to stay in the Europa League draw. They are three points behind RB Leipzig and only two points ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt – so there is little room for error. Werder coach Horst Steffen’s team is currently 13th in the table with 18 points, just one point ahead of Hamburger SV. Leverkusen’s league form so far has not lived up to expectations from the preseason: they have suffered four defeats in their last six Bundesliga games, most recently a 1-0 loss in Hoffenheim. This was followed by a 2-0 defeat to Olympiacos in the Champions League. Added to this is the pressure of injuries: Flekken and Tella are out, as are Ben Seghir and Tapsoba. Bremen, meanwhile, have been waiting for a win for seven league games, although the 3-3 draw against Frankfurt showed that they can still hurt opponents up front – through Njinmah, Stage, and Milosevic. The first leg ended 3-3 in Bremen, and Werder also won 2-0 at the BayArena last March, suggesting that this game could go either way.
- Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen
- Date and time: January 24, 2026, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 19)
The market makes Leverkusen the clear home favorite, with odds of 1.6, a draw at 4.2 and Bremen at 5.3. However, the real value in our tips lies in the fact that the game could quickly become open. Leverkusen needs a reset after the Olympiacos defeat and will continue to be without Flekken, Tella, and Tapsoba, so Bremen could well steal a goal through Schmid or Njinmah.
Leverkusen form & record check
Leverkusen goes into matchday 19 in sixth place with 29 points, three behind Leipzig and only two ahead of Frankfurt, so any slip-up will be punished immediately. Their recent league form has been quite erratic, with victories in Leipzig (3-1) and at home against Cologne (2-0) followed by defeats against Stuttgart (1-4) and Hoffenheim (1-0). It is striking that there has not been a single draw in the last five games. Across all competitions, the dip was even more pronounced: after the 1-0 win in Hoffenheim, they traveled to Olympiacos and lost 2-0, conceding a goal in the 2nd minute and a second after a counterattack before the break. The reaction was not lifeless, with Schick forcing the keeper into a strong save late on, but the chances created did not match the control, and it looked like a team playing on a rather nervous edge. The statistics back up this impression: Leverkusen have conceded goals in the first half in four of their last five games, but none in the second half, which suggests that the adjustments are working, but not the start. Without Flekken, Tapsoba, Tella, and Ben Seghir, Hjulmand has less room for maneuver, especially in build-up play and in covering after losing possession. If they find their rhythm early on, their management can still carry them in the second half.
Leverkusen are likely to start in their usual 3-4-2-1 formation, with Blaswich as the probable number two in goal behind Quansah, Andrich, and Badé. Vázquez and Grimaldo will provide width, pushing high up the pitch early on, while Fernández and García will share the build-up play. Between the lines, Tillman and Maza seem like the most obvious duo to support Schick up front. Of course, this is only a prediction, but the absences point quite clearly in this direction. Flekken is still out with a ligament injury, and Tapsoba’s muscle problem is thinning out the options in central defense, so Andrich could once again help out in the back line. Further forward, Tella’s foot injury and Ben Seghir’s ankle problem limit the rotation, and Palacios, Hofmann, and Terrier are unavailable in the Champions League squad.
Werder Form & Record Check
Werder’s league form is stuck, and the 3-3 draw against Frankfurt pretty much summed up the mood. They showed morale, turning the game around through Njinmah, Stage, and Milosevic, but then conceded in stoppage time.
Before that, there was a sobering 3-0 defeat in Dortmund, a tough 0-0 draw in Augsburg, and a bitter 4-0 defeat at home to Stuttgart, plus a 3-2 derby defeat in Hamburg. The main concern is how often they lose control of the game after the break. They haven’t won a single game in their last five league matches, and four times more than 2.5 goals were scored, mostly because Bremen’s defense in the penalty area weakens at the back. They conceded goals in four of those five games and didn’t win a single game in the second half, which sounds more like a lack of concentration and structure than a lack of effort. That leaves Steffen’s team in 13th place in the table with 18 points and a goal difference of minus 13. The gaps are narrow, with Wolfsburg one point above and Hamburg one point below. The personnel situation doesn’t help, with Wöber, Stark, Agu, and Weiser all missing, and Sugawara recovering from an ankle problem. Fritz has denied rumors of Schmid leaving in the winter transfer window, but the background noise fits with the unsettled situation.
Werder are likely to stick with Steffen’s usual three-man defense, which on paper is a 3-4-2-1. Backhaus would then play behind Coulibaly, Friedl and Pieper, with Sugawara and Schmidt providing width as wingbacks. In the center, Lynen and Stage would hold things together as a double six, with Schmid and Grüll playing behind Njinmah up front. The selection seems pretty clear given the absences, with Wöber, Stark, Agu, and Weiser still missing in defense, and Boniface also out. The only real personnel issue is Sugawara, who has recently been struggling with an ankle problem, so Deman could step in at short notice if the medical staff are hesitant. Steffen also liked Milosevic alongside Njinmah recently, so a switch to a 3-5-2 formation is quite conceivable.
Leverkusen – Werder Head-to-head comparison & statistics
Leverkusen has the slight edge in the last five league matches, with two wins, two draws, and one loss, scoring 13 goals and conceding seven. The most recent game in August 2025 ended 3-3, a match that was more about momentum than control. Before that, Bremen stole a 2-0 away win in March 2025, the only game without conceding a goal in this sample. Goals were the rule rather than the exception, with all five games exceeding 1.5 total goals, four of them exceeding 2.5, and a total of 20 goals scored, averaging 4.0 per game. Even the closest result, the 2-0 win in March 2025, had two decisive moments, and when this duel opens up, history shows that it rarely stays quiet at the back.
Before Bremen’s recent resistance, Leverkusen had a clear run, remaining unbeaten four times in a row from 2023 to 2024, including a 3-0 win in 2023 and a 5-0 demolition in 2024, followed by a 2-2 draw in 2024. Bremen’s 2-0 win in March 2025 ended that streak, and the 3-3 draw in August 2025 showed that they can also trade blows. A recurring theme is the early stages of the game: Leverkusen has won the first half in three consecutive head-to-head matches, and Bremen has conceded several times before the break in the same period, so the first 30 minutes could set the tone again. Squad availability could also play a role, with Flekken and Tapsoba out injured for Leverkusen, while Weiser is out long term for Bremen and Agu is unavailable.
