Bayer Leverkusen – TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen is facing what is probably the most profound upheaval in the club’s history when TSG 1899 Hoffenheim visits the BayArena today. Following the departure of Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid, key players such as captain Lukas Hradecky, Jonathan Tah, Granit Xhaka, Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, and Amine Adli also left the club. Erik ten Hag has brought in numerous new signings, including goalkeeper Mark Flekken, defenders Jarell Quansah and Loïc Badé, and attacking talents Ibrahim Maza and Ernest Poku. Hoffenheim are coming to Leverkusen with a lot of momentum, having won all eight of their preseason friendlies and defeated Hansa Rostock 4-0 in the cup, with Max Moerstedt scoring twice and Fisnik Asllani and Wouter Burger also finding the net.
Leverkusen – Hoffenheim Info
- Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen
- Date and time: 23.08.2025, 15:30
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 1)
Leverkusen Form & Record Check
Coach Erik ten Hag showed the first signs of his system in the 4-0 cup win against Großaspach, but the performance left more questions than answers. Patrik Schick, Arthur, Christian Kofane, and Álex Grimaldo scored the goals, but the game revealed clear weaknesses in the structure. The Dutchman has brought in a completely rejuvenated squad, with the new signings significantly younger on average than those who have left. Malik Tillman, Claudio Echeverri and Martin Terrier are currently sidelined through injury, further limiting ten Hag’s options. Players such as Robert Andrich and Edmond Tapsoba are now called upon to take on leadership roles.
Bayer Leverkusen are likely to line up in their usual 3-4-3 formation against Hoffenheim. The current injury situation is particularly problematic: Palacios and Tillman are two important midfielders who are unavailable, while Badé and Belocian are out in defense. French center back Badé, signed from Sevilla for €25 million, is out with a muscle injury. Hoffmann and Terrier are also unavailable. The expected lineup shows the new face of the Werkself: Flekken between the posts, in front of him a back three of Quansah, Tapsoba, and Hincapié. Arthur and Grimaldo will work the wings, while Andrich and Aleix García will stabilize the central midfield. Up front, young talent Maza could get a chance alongside Tella and Schick.
Hoffenheim Form & Record Check
TSG is starting the new season with mixed prospects. Hoffenheim struggled for a long time against Rostock and only found its usual attacking power late in the game. The clear lead belied the fact that the game was evenly matched for long stretches, but Maximilian Moerstedt made it clear with a brace that the offense is working. However, a look at the last Bundesliga appearances reveals problematic patterns: The 0-4 home defeat against Bayern Munich was still manageable, but the spectacular draws in Wolfsburg (2-2) and especially in Mönchengladbach (4-4) revealed defensive weaknesses. In recent games, there have always been more than 2.5 goals, often even more than 3.5, which points to an offensive style of play that comes at the expense of stability.
Coach Christian Ilzer is likely to field his team in the usual 3-4-2-1 formation. The personnel situation in defense is tense: Kabak (cruciate ligament rupture) and Gendrey (broken ankle) are two important defensive players who will be out for the long term. Therefore, the back three could consist of Hranac, Bernardo, and Machida. In midfield, Burger and Avdullahu are set to play in central roles, while Coufal and Touré are likely to occupy the wide positions. The absence of Hlozek, who has suffered a broken scaphoid bone and is one of the most valuable players in the squad with a market value of €18 million, is particularly painful. Up front, Kramaric will probably pull the strings, supported by Lemperle, while Asllani could play as the lone striker.
H2H Leverkusen – Hoffenheim Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record of the last five head-to-head matches could hardly be clearer. Bayer Leverkusen has won all of its matches against Hoffenheim since February 2023, with the most recent game in February 2025 ending in a confident 3-1 home win for the Werkself. The 1-4 defeat in Hoffenheim in September 2024 also demonstrated Leverkusen’s strength away from home. All five games saw at least three goals, with four or more goals scored on four occasions. A pattern has emerged in the second half in particular, with Bayer scoring at least once after the break in each of the encounters. Despite the clear losing streak, Hoffenheim did not remain goalless, with the Kraichgauers scoring at least one goal in every game, which shows that they are certainly capable of breaking down Leverkusen’s defense.
The betting options are influenced by the high-scoring record of both teams. Our prediction for over 3.5 goals is based on impressive statistics: Hoffenheim has seen at least four goals in each of its last five games, while Leverkusen has done so in 80% of its games. The personnel situation makes things particularly interesting, as Leverkusen will be without three defenders, including new signing Loïc Badé, which puts additional pressure on ten Hag’s system, which is still not fully gelled. The “Both teams to score: Yes” bet is backed up by the fact that Leverkusen have scored in all of their last five games and Hoffenheim in four of their last five. Our riskier tip of over 2.5 goals in the second half is based on the fact that both teams regularly play more openly after the break, with more than 2.5 goals scored in 80% of their most recent games after the half-time whistle. While the betting market prices Leverkusen as the clear favorite at 1.5, we see the real value in the goal bets.
