After five matchdays, Kasper Hjulmand’s Werkself are only one point ahead of Union Berlin, who have rediscovered their combative identity under Steffen Baumgart. On Saturday afternoon, Leverkusen welcomes the Iron Men to the BayArena, and the starting position is more surprising than expected.
Leverkusen is going through a period of upheaval following the high-profile departures of Wirtz, Xhaka, and Tah. The recent 1-1 draw against PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League highlighted the problems: The four creative new signings, including Tillman, have not yet been able to make their mark. Now the runners-up are facing the problem of having to worry about qualifying for the playoffs.
Union, on the other hand, surprised everyone with a spectacular 4-3 win in Frankfurt with a newly formed offense featuring Burke, Ansah, and Ilic. The magical trio has scored seven goals this season, confirming sporting director Heldt’s strategy of making the offense younger and faster. However, coach Baumgart is suspended after his red card against Frankfurt, so Kevin McKenna will take over on the sidelines.
Leverkusen has clearly had the upper hand in the last five encounters, with three wins and two draws. Particularly noteworthy: both teams rarely scored more than one goal per half against each other. The last meeting in April ended goalless, even though Werkself were still on course for the title at that point. The bookmakers see Leverkusen as clear favorites, but Union have already proven that they are capable of causing surprises away from home.
- Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen
- Date and time: October 4, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 6)
Leverkusen form & record check
Bayer Leverkusen are currently in a strange phase of indecision, which is particularly worrying in the Champions League. Despite periods of dominance, they only managed a 1-1 draw against PSV Eindhoven after youngster Kofane had put the Werkself ahead. It was already their second draw in the Champions League after the 2-2 draw in Copenhagen.
This series of draws should not be underestimated, as it spells real trouble in the new Champions League phase. With only one point from two games, Leverkusen is already under pressure to qualify for the knockout stages. One might think that the many new faces still need time, but that time is running out.
Things are looking a little more relaxed in the league, at least. The 2-1 win at St. Pauli was hard-fought but important for confidence. With eight points and sixth place in the table, Leverkusen remains in the upper midfield, just one point behind Stuttgart. Interestingly, the team has remained unbeaten in its last five games, but has also collected three draws.
The personnel situation is becoming more difficult. Schick is out until at least mid-October with a fascia injury, which noticeably weakens the offense. Added to this are the Champions League suspensions for Palacios, Hofmann, and Terrier, which further thin out the squad. Andrich is also doubtful after his injury in Hamburg.
The statistics paint a strange picture: Leverkusen scores reliably, but has conceded at least one goal in each of its last five games. This defensive vulnerability could come back to haunt the team if it does not soon regain its former stability.
Coach Kasper Hjulmand is likely to rely on the tried-and-tested 3-4-2-1 formation that has proven itself in recent weeks for the Champions League game. Mark Flekken is expected to start in goal, with a back three of Quansah, Badé, and Tapsoba providing stability behind him.
The problem lies in attack: Patrik Schick is out until at least mid-October with a fascia injury, while new signings Palacios, Hofmann and Terrier are not eligible to play. Christian Kofane, who scored his first goal against PSV, could therefore once again lead the line. Tillman and Poku are likely to play behind him, even though the creative new signings have not yet been able to make the desired impact.
1. FC Union Berlin Form & Record Check
Union Berlin are currently in 11th place in the table with seven points and continue to struggle with inconsistency. After the goalless draw against Hamburger SV four days ago, the ambivalent state of the Iron Ones is clear. Coach Baumgart had to watch the game from a container due to a red card suspension and expressed his dissatisfaction with his team’s lack of punch.
Recent performances highlight Union’s difficulties in delivering consistent performances. The spectacular 4-3 win in Frankfurt, in which the attacking trio of Ansah, Burke, and Ilic shone, was followed by a sobering goalless draw against Hamburg. Their defensive vulnerability is particularly striking: Berlin have conceded goals in four of their last five games, regularly squandering their half-time leads.
Interestingly, Union have been waiting weeks for a win in the second half. The statistics show a worrying tendency to lose control after the break. Against Hamburg, Ilic also failed to convert a penalty against keeper Heuer Fernandes, which is symptomatic of the current efficiency problems. The Serbian has already provided five assists, but is still waiting for his first goal of the season.
The personnel situation remains tense. Juranović, Skov, Burcu, and Markgraf are still missing. At least Nsoki is returning to the squad after a two-month injury break, even if Baumgart is still calling for patience with his integration. The seven points from five games do not meet expectations, especially as the gap to the relegation places is only two points.
Union Berlin are likely to line up with their usual back three under Steffen Baumgart, even though the coach himself will not be able to take his place on the sidelines after his red card suspension in Frankfurt. Kevin McKenna will stand in for him, while the tactical approach has already been decided.
Baumgart will still have to do without several key players. Josip Juranovic, Robert Skov, and Livan Burcu are out with injuries, and Andrik Markgraf is also unavailable with a stress fracture. At least Stanley Nsoki could be in the squad for the first time after working on his fitness for months.
In the expected 3-4-2-1 formation, Rönnow is likely to start in goal, along with the tried-and-tested back three of Doekhi, Querfeld, and Leite. Trimmel and Köhn are set to start on the wings, while Khedira and Haberer could occupy the central midfield. Up front, the trio of Ansah, Burke, and Ilic, who have been so successful recently and already have seven goals to their name this season, are expected to start.
H2H Leverkusen – 1. FC Union Berlin Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record from the last five meetings shows a clear trend: Leverkusen has won three times, while Union Berlin is still waiting for its first victory. Two games ended in draws, including the most recent encounter in April 2025, which was a goalless draw.
Interestingly, most of the encounters have been low-scoring affairs. Four of the five games saw fewer than three goals scored, with only the Werkself’s 4-0 win in November 2023 producing more goals. This game also stands out as the only really clear-cut affair.
A pattern in these duels: the first halves are usually quiet. In three consecutive games, the score at halftime was no more than one goal difference. Union Berlin has a particularly hard time scoring in the second half and has not scored at all after the break in recent encounters.
The Köpenickers were able to celebrate at least once in November 2024 with a 1-2 defeat, but still suffered the loss. It could be important for Baumgart’s team to be present early in the game in order to escape this negative trend against Leverkusen.
The tip on “Both teams to score: Yes” at 1.7 seems quite reasonable given the defensive uncertainties on both sides. Leverkusen has both scored and conceded in all five league games, while Union has enough firepower with its attacking trio of Burke, Ansah, and Ilic. Burke alone scored three goals in Frankfurt, while Ilic has already contributed four assists. With Juranović suspended and Schick still injured, both teams are missing important stabilizing factors.
The tip “half-time draw” at 2.4 is based on Leverkusen’s tendency to only really get going after the break; they have only led at half-time once in their last five league games. Without the creative impetus of Palacios and Hofmann, it often takes longer for the Werkself to get going.
The boldest tip is “full-time draw” at 4.1, which is well above the market estimate of around 24%. Three draws in their last four competitive games speak for Leverkusen’s current indecisiveness, while Union, after their win in Frankfurt, certainly have the confidence to pick up a point.
