Saturday will be an emotional reunion for Yussuf Poulsen: After twelve years at RB Leipzig, the 31-year-old returns to his old stomping ground in the jersey of Hamburger SV, but is still working on his full fitness after muscular problems and is aiming for a comeback at his former club of all places. At 1:30 p.m., Leipzig welcomes HSV to the Red Bull Arena, with the form curve clearly favoring the hosts. Leipzig sits in third place in the table with 13 points and has won its last four league games. Hamburg, on the other hand, is in ninth place with eight points and is in mixed form: after two defeats, it recently achieved a 4-0 victory against Mainz. The last match between the two teams was in the DFB Cup in October 2022, when Leipzig won 4-0. The bookmakers see Leipzig as the clear favorites, with the probability of a home win at over 70%. At HSV, sporting director Marcel Schäfer has already set the course for the winter, while coach Merlin Polzin has to rebuild defensively: Julian Omari, Dennis Hefti, and Fabio Vieira are unavailable due to long-term injuries.
- Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
- Date and time: October 18, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 7)
Hamburg, on the other hand, are on a negative run with two consecutive defeats and have conceded goals in three consecutive games. Interestingly, 80% of their recent games have ended with more than 1.5 goals, indicating a vulnerable defense and a tendency for high-scoring encounters. Leipzig has scored at least once in each of its last five games and has an additional advantage with the personnel problems on the Hamburg side. The fact that the home side has scored before the break in 80% of its last five games speaks for early pressure and high initial activity. The betting markets see Leipzig as the clear favorite with odds of around 1.4, which reflects their current form. Against this backdrop, a bet on at least two Leipzig goals seems well-founded. The combination of Leipzig’s offense and Hamburg’s defense increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game, although there are of course risks in terms of game and random variables such as early red cards or Hamburg’s away form.
Leipzig form & record check
RB Leipzig has shown great consistency in this Bundesliga season: four wins in a row and a total of 13 points currently put them in third place, level on points with VfB Stuttgart and just one point behind Borussia Dortmund in second place. This underlines the close group of pursuers behind the top of the table. Under coach Ole Werner, the team appears very controlled and composed. The 1-1 draw in Dortmund was followed by narrow but convincing wins in Wolfsburg (0-1), against Cologne (3-1), in Mainz (0-1) and against Heidenheim (2-0). Leipzig scored in all five games and showed great defensive efficiency, especially in the second halves, conceding no goals after the break since the Dortmund game. Close results are typical of their current performances: four of their last five games have ended with fewer than 2.5 goals. The defense is stable and the rotation in the squad is working smoothly. Substitutes such as Nusa, Diomande and Harder have recently brought fresh impetus. Henrichs, Finkgräfe and Nedeljkovic are out for the long term. Baumgartner, Baku, and Banzuzi are available again after receiving yellow cards against Dortmund. In goal, Péter Gulácsi is confirming his strong form and his role as number one. The 35-year-old Hungarian recently announced his autobiography and emphasized that he feels physically fit, even though his contract expires in the summer.
RB Leipzig is expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation. Three defensive players are reported to be out: Henrichs, Nedeljkovic, and Finkgräfe. Baku is expected to start at right back, Raum at left back, and Gulácsi in goal. Orban and Lukeba are suggested as center backs. A trio of Ouédraogo, Seiwald, and Baumgartner is planned for midfield. Rômulo could start at center forward, with Bakayoko and Nusa on the wings. Werner, Haidara, and Schlager are named as options on the bench.
HSV Form & Record Check
Hamburger SV has been showing mixed results lately: Ninth place in the table with eight points reflects their inconsistent performance. On the positive side, they recorded a clear 4-0 home win against Mainz with early goals from Sambi Lokonga and Rayan Philippe, who later scored again. On the negative side, they suffered heavy defeats against St. Pauli (0-2) and Bayern Munich (0-5) as well as a goalless draw in Berlin. Defensive weaknesses are noticeable: negative goal difference, goals conceded in the last three games, and even three times in a row in the second halves. At the same time, at least two goals were scored in four of the last five games, so the games are often open and peppered with goals. In terms of personnel, Noah Katterbach returns to training after a two-week break to work on his body language, but his availability remains uncertain. Vieira is suspended, while Omari and Hefti remain injured. These absences weaken the defense and the stability of the squad. The tactical focus ahead of the Leipzig game is on creating stability in defense through a more compact pressing formation and better cover during transitions. In addition, the team wants to manage the second half better and use its transition strength, especially via Philippe and Lokonga for quick finishes. HSV is prone to form, but can be competitive against Leipzig with a focused defense and effective finishing. The decisive factor will be whether coach Merlin Polzin acts more compactly defensively and compensates adequately for Vieira’s suspension.
Hamburg are expected to start in a 3-4-3 formation: Heuer Fernandes in goal, Capaldo, Vuskovic and Elfadli in a back three. Gocholeishvili and Muheim will play on the wings, with Lokonga and Remberg in central midfield. Glatzel is expected to lead the line up front, flanked by Dompé and Königsdörffer. Coach Merlin Polzin will still be without the injured Omari and Hefti in defense. Fabio Vieira is suspended after his red card in Berlin and is also carrying an injury. Noah Katterbach is back in the professional squad after a two-week break, but an immediate place in the starting lineup seems unlikely. Pherai could be an option on the bench, among others, after he put in a strong performance in the reserves’ 6-2 win. Overall, however, the formation remains largely unchanged, barring any last-minute absences.
H2H Leipzig – HSV Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last five meetings, RB Leipzig won three times, Hamburg once, and one game ended in a draw. The most recent duel was over three years ago: in October 2022, Leipzig won 4-0 in the DFB Cup. All five games had at least two goals, and in four of the five encounters, more than 1.5 goals were scored by halftime. Leipzig scored in four games, and Hamburg conceded goals in four games. The last three encounters each had fewer than 3.5 goals, so there have rarely been any real goal fests. Hamburg’s last victory dates back to February 2017, when they won 3-0 at the Red Bull Arena. It should be noted that both teams have developed since the last game, which is why historical statistics should be interpreted with caution.
