Key Facts
- Leipzig is third (29 points), four behind Dortmund and level on points with Leverkusen; Freiburg is eighth (23), three points behind Frankfurt and only one ahead of Union.
- After the game in St. Pauli was canceled, Leipzig has been waiting for a league game since December 20; most recently, Leverkusen and Union punished sloppy defending despite Schläger’s opening goal.
- With Nusa, Bakayoko, Klostermann, and Kampl out, Werner has to carry the load in a 4-3-3 formation alongside Schlager, Baumgartner, and Diomande; classic wingers are hardly available.
- Freiburg comes into the game with five consecutive games in which they have scored and three wins from their last five; in the 2-1 win against HSV, Grifo scored from the penalty spot and Matanovic scored late.
- In a direct comparison, Leipzig has won four and drawn one of five games, with a total score of 11-3; with Leipzig scoring after the break in every win.
- Despite Leipzig’s home win rate of 1.7, Freiburg X2 and ‘Both teams to score: Yes’ look interesting, as Freiburg has scored five times in a row and Leipzig in four of its last five games.
Ahead of this Wednesday evening at the Red Bull Arena, you can sense that there is more at stake for both sides than just three points. RB Leipzig are third under Ole Werner with 29 points, four points behind Dortmund and level on points with Leverkusen, while Freiburg are eighth with 23 points, three behind Frankfurt and one ahead of Union. A home win would be important for the hosts to cement their role as challengers, while Freiburg are looking to take the next step towards Europe. A look back is also explosive: in the last duel, Freiburg drew 0-0 against Leipzig after Leipzig had previously won this fixture four times in a row. Freiburg travels with momentum after a 2-1 win over HSV, while Leipzig returns after the cancellation in St. Pauli, and the weak 1-3 defeat against Leverkusen is still fresh in their minds. In addition, Nusa and Bakayoko are missing, Kyereh is questionable, and Diomande remains the focus of transfer rumors.
- Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
- Date and time: January 14, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 17)
The bookmakers see Leipzig as clear favorites at home, with odds of 1.7. Nevertheless, the defense has been shaky lately, Nusa and Bakayoko are missing, and Werner seems to be practically out of the picture in light of MLS rumors. That smells like value on Freiburg with X2.
Leipzig form & record check
Leipzig returns to the Bundesliga in third place with 29 points, but their cushion is thin, tied with Leverkusen and four points behind Dortmund. Snow forced the trip to St. Pauli to be canceled, so their last league game was on December 20, and such a break can work both ways. Things have been shaky in the league recently, with two defeats in the last five games, so another slip-up is really not an option. In the 3-1 home defeat to Leverkusen, Leipzig were punished for sloppy defending, even after Schlager had given them the lead. The 3-1 defeat at Union at the beginning of December sounded similarly alarming, with the issue again being control of the game under pressure. However, there were also answers, a merciless 6-0 win against Frankfurt and a solid 3-1 win against Magdeburg in the cup, while the 0-0 draw in Gladbach remained fairly toothless. Across all competitions, four of their last five games have seen over 2.5 goals, and they have scored in 80% of that period, so the chances continue to come regularly. The concern lies more at the back, where transitions quickly become messy once the pressing is overcome. With Kampl suspended and Klostermann, Nusa, and Bakayoko all missing, a lot of the burden falls on Schlager, Baumgartner, and Diomande. Werner has only played 13 minutes in the league so far and seems close to leaving the club.
Leipzig are likely to stick with a 4-3-3 under Ole Werner, with Gulácsi in goal, Nedeljkovic, Orbán, Lukeba, and Raum in the back four. In midfield, Schlager will provide cover, with Seiwald alongside him and Baumgartner slightly higher up between the lines.
Up front, this prediction sees Diomande and Harder alongside Rômulo, with the idea of pressing early and switching quickly after winning the ball. There are a few snags with the selection: Klostermann is out with influenza, so the right side looks pretty set with Nedeljkovic, with Baku as the alternative. Kampl is still on special leave, and Nusa and Bakayoko are also missing. This could mean that the wings will remain occupied by Diomande and Harder rather than a classic winger. Henrichs has returned to training, but a return date is still open. Gebel is also out long term.
Freiburg Form & Record Check
Freiburg travels to Leipzig in eighth place with 23 points, a balanced goal difference, and little room for error. They are three points behind Eintracht Frankfurt above them and only one point ahead of Union Berlin below them, so every clean performance counts. Across all competitions, they have won three of their last five games and scored in each of them, which is a solid foundation. However, their latest victory, a 2-1 win over Hamburger SV, had a few snags: Freiburg needed a turnaround after Elfadli’s sending off and a penalty from Grifo to equalize before Matanovic struck late, but it still didn’t look particularly convincing. In the phase before that, there was a 4-3 win against Wolfsburg and a 1-0 win against Salzburg, plus a 1-1 draw against Dortmund and a 1-2 defeat in Heidenheim, where the defensive spacing proved costly. Freiburg’s best phase often comes after the break. In four of their last five games, the first half saw fewer than 1.5 goals, after which the tempo was often increased and second halves without goals were generally avoided. They have scored in every recent game, but have also conceded goals in four of them, so Atubolu and Ginter cannot afford to switch off. Kyereh is still out, and the rumors of Dinkçi being loaned out are causing a bit of unrest in Schuster’s attacking depth.
Freiburg are likely to stick with Schuster’s familiar 4-2-3-1, with Atubolu behind a solid back four of Kübler, Ginter, Lienhart, and Günter. The double six with Höfler and Eggestein should secure the pressing and protect transition moments so that the full-backs can push up boldly when Freiburg gains control. Away from home, this static approach seems, interestingly, to be the most obvious and safest solution. Further forward, the forecast sees Treu and Grifo on the wings, Suzuki as the central link player, and Höler up front, who also takes on the initial defensive work. Kyereh remains unavailable, and Dinkçi’s recent absence from the matchday squad leaves his role open, so Beste or Philipp could be the obvious alternatives for the attacking line, with Adamu or Matanovic as the other striker type.
Leipzig – Freiburg Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last five meetings, Leipzig has recorded four wins and one draw against Freiburg, with Freiburg failing to win. The most recent game, in March 2025, ended 0-0 in Freiburg. Before that, Leipzig won 3-1 in 2024, 4-1 in 2024, 3-1 in 2023, and 1-0 in 2023. Two games ended without Leipzig conceding a goal, and three wins were by at least two goals. This 0-0 draw in March 2025 ended a series of four wins that Leipzig had built up against Freiburg in 2023 and 2024. It also stopped the run of scoring in four consecutive games against Freiburg, a small indication that this duel is not always open. From Freiburg’s point of view, the draw was at least the end of a four-game losing streak in full time in this pairing, even if it did not solve the bigger issue of creating enough really clear chances. Despite the 0-0 draw, Leipzig has outscored Freiburg 11-3 in these five games. Interestingly, Leipzig scored in the second half in each of its four wins, while Freiburg conceded after the break in those same four losses. When Freiburg got off to a good start, the problem was often maintaining that level once Leipzig picked up the pace and found runners between the lines. Because this streak dates back to 2023, there have been a lot of changes in both squads, and Werner and Schuster were not in charge for most of these games. Nevertheless, the pattern is clear: Leipzig has consistently kept Freiburg’s output low and usually converts pressure into goals late in the game. It could be that Freiburg is best off keeping the game open well into the second half.
