Key Facts
- Leipzig (5th/44) is in a tight Champions League race between Stuttgart (+2) and Leverkusen (-1), while Augsburg (9th/31) is eyeing the top spot, just two points behind Freiburg.
- Leipzig often sets the tone early and has remained unbeaten at halftime in its last five games, but has conceded a goal each time, making it vulnerable later on.
- Augsburg looks much more solid defensively under Manuel Baum, winning four of its last five league games and keeping a clean sheet in four consecutive second halves.
- Leipzig will have to do without Gulácsi and midfielders Schlager and Ouédraogo, while Augsburg will be without Matsima and Gouweleeuw in defense and Keitel’s knee injury limits their options in midfield.
- Leipzig is unbeaten in five games against Augsburg (3W/2D) and has scored three times in a row before the break; accordingly, “Leipzig wins the first half” is at 1.9–1.94.
- The market sees Leipzig as the clear home win favorite at around 70%, but Augsburg’s Baum defense (only one more goal conceded, four second halves without conceding) makes “Both teams to score: No” plausible.
Leipzig needs every point in the race for the Champions League, and that’s exactly what makes this game so tricky. Ole Werner’s team goes into the 25th Bundesliga matchday in fifth place with 44 points, with Stuttgart just two points ahead and Leverkusen one point behind – there’s not much room for slip-ups, even if the full focus is now on the league. Augsburg is ninth with 31 points, just two points behind Freiburg, and is likely to still be thinking about the 6-0 defeat in October 2025.
- Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
- Date and time: March 7, 2026, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (25th matchday)
The bookmakers make Leipzig the overwhelming favorites (roughly 70% home win), but Augsburg’s recent structure under Baum suggests that the game could be closer than the market suggests, especially after the break.
Leipzig form & record check
Leipzig comes into the game on the back of a 2-1 away win at Hamburger SV in the league, after drawing 2-2 at home against Dortmund and Wolfsburg. Their last away game in Cologne also ended in a 2-1 win, but the bigger setback was the 2-0 defeat at Bayern in the DFB Cup quarter-finals, which ended their title hopes. In the league, the points tally is good overall, but it doesn’t always look convincing. The pattern is pretty clear: Leipzig often sets the tone early on, but has to solve problems as the game progresses. In the last five games, they have not been behind at halftime, but at the same time they have conceded a goal in each of these games, which keeps the opponent in the game and often forces Leipzig into management mode later on. Against an Augsburg team that is comfortable without the ball, this balance between initiative and security will be key. In terms of personnel, much will depend on how Leipzig builds its midfield and secures the transition moments. Gulácsi is still out, Schlager and Ouédraogo are also unavailable, which could cost them some bite and ball wins in the center. On the right, the internal duel between Baku and Henrichs has been a topic of discussion recently, and whoever starts will have to combine forward momentum with restraint. Up front, Rômulo and Diomande have offered a direct route to goal as soon as the game opens up.
Leipzig are likely to stick with their familiar 4-3-3 under Werner, although this is more of a prediction than a confirmed XI. With Gulácsi out with a torn medial ligament in his knee, Vandevoordt looks the most likely starting keeper. Raum, Lukeba, Orbán, and Baku are expected to feature in defense, with Henrichs once again pushing hard for the right-back spot.
Augsburg Form & Record Check
FCA’s last five league games read like the record of a team that has found its method: a 2-0 win against Cologne, a 3-2 away win in Wolfsburg, a 1-0 home win against Heidenheim, then a slip-up with a 2-0 defeat in Mainz, before narrowly beating St. Pauli 2-1. Four wins from five games exceeded what most expected from a mid-table team, and that has brought Augsburg closer to the European debate again. Crucial to this journey is how Augsburg achieves these results. After the break, they are remarkably difficult to break down, with recent data showing four consecutive second halves without conceding a goal, and they regularly decide games late rather than early. Banks has been praised for his defending, but also for how he carries the ball forward, and the Cologne win highlighted this very combination, with Ribeiro finishing off an attack and Claude Maurice adding a second late on. It looks controlled, not chaotic. There is still a lot to manage in the squad, though, with Matsima out, Gouweleeuw not expected back until April, and Keitel struggling with knee problems. However, Baum has alternatives, and the balance of the team seems right, with Zesiger and Schlotterbeck supporting Banks, and Jakic and Rexhbecaj providing cover in front of them. With Freiburg only two points away, Augsburg has a clear incentive to keep this streak going.
Baum is likely to stick with his 3-4-2-1 formation, with Dahmen behind a back three of Banks, Schlotterbeck, and Zesiger. Wolf and Giannoulis will provide width, while Jakic and Massengo will secure the center so that Augsburg’s recently stable defensive control does not falter. In front of them, Kömür and Claude Maurice are the most likely link-up players for Ribeiro up front. That remains an assessment, and the injury list sets the tone, with Matsima and Gouweleeuw missing in defense, making Banks’ role as a mobile right-sided center back even more important. Keitel’s knee problem narrows the options in the center, with Rexhbecaj or Fellhauer the obvious choices if rotation is necessary. Ogundu is out, making Gregoritsch the most important alternative to Ribeiro.
Leipzig – Augsburg Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last five encounters clearly favor Leipzig, who are unbeaten with three wins and two draws. The most recent game was a real statement, a 6-0 away win for Leipzig in Augsburg in October 2025, while the other encounter in 2025 ended 0-0. Leipzig has been even more consistent at the Red Bull Arena, winning 4-0 in 2024 and 3-0 in 2023, which gives a clear direction to the recent past. Interestingly, there is also a pattern in the timing. Leipzig has scored in the first half in three consecutive games against Augsburg, and Augsburg has conceded early in each of those games, which fits with a recurring sluggish start. At the same time, three consecutive games have seen over 2.5 goals, mainly because Leipzig regularly converts pressure into a lead. However, the two draws in the package also show that Augsburg can give the game a different rhythm if it survives the early stages.
