Important Facts
- Leeds (16th) and Forest (17th) are level on 26 points and -11 goals; with only three points behind Palace, a win could reshuffle the relegation zone.
- Leeds’ form is shaky (only one win in five league games) and the 0-4 defeat to Arsenal showed their vulnerability; nevertheless, they have scored in four of their last five games.
- Forest look more stable under Dyche, haven’t lost a first half in five games and have seen four games with under 2.5 goals; away from home, however, their defense has only conceded three goals in five games.
- Both teams are limited in terms of personnel: Leeds are missing Stach and winger James, Nmecha is doubtful and Meslier is preoccupied with transfer rumors; Forest must plan without the suspended Williams and probably continue without Wood.
- In a direct comparison, there have been no draws in the last five encounters, with Forest leading 3-2 and winning 3-1 in November; early goals are common, while late goals are rare.
- The odds (Leeds win 2.2; draw 3.3) are for games with goals at both ends—Leeds has scored and conceded in four of its last five, while Forest has conceded away in eight of its last ten.
When two direct rivals with identical points and goal differences meet, even a seemingly ordinary league Friday suddenly feels like a minor final. Leeds, under Daniel Farke, will host Sean Dyche’s Nottingham Forest at Elland Road on Friday, February 6, at 8:00 p.m. in the 25th matchday of the regular Premier League season. The table underscores the importance of the match: Leeds is in 16th place, Forest in 17th, both with 26 points and a goal difference of minus 11, while Palace is three points above them, so every detail counts. Leeds is coming off a 4-0 loss to Arsenal last weekend, a performance that showed how quickly games can slip away when the balance is off. Overall, their league record is inconsistent, with only one win in five games, while Forest have looked more stable recently and the 1-1 draw against Palace demonstrated the pressure on Dyche’s organization. The last direct duel was in November, when Forest won 3-1 at City Ground, and generally there have been no draws in the last five encounters. In terms of personnel, the hosts will have to do without Stach, James is still out and Nmecha is unlikely to feature, while Bijol and Justin are nearing fitness. Forest travel without the suspended Williams, Sels and Hudson Odoi are still being assessed, Ortega brings additional personnel.
- Venue: Elland Road, Leeds
- Date and time: 06.02.2026, 21:00
- Competition: Premier League (matchday 25)
The market makes Leeds clear favorites, priced at 2.2, but the odds of 3.3 for a draw signal a caution that I do not share at Elland Road. Nottingham Forest travels without the suspended Williams and may have to plan around Sels and Hudson Odoi, while Leeds has to do without Stach and Meslier is in the spotlight due to transfer rumors – this points to opportunities on both sides. That’s why I’m tempted by Leeds to continue winning, as well as Both Teams to Score: Yes and Over 2.5 Goals.
Leeds Form & Record Check
Leeds go into this game in 16th place in the table in round 25, with 26 points, and it’s uncomfortably close. Forest are level on points behind them, while Palace are only three points ahead, so a good week could change the picture. Their league form has been mixed, with one win, two draws, and two defeats in their last five games, and the mood swings accordingly from game to game. The last month tells the story quite clearly: a wild 3-4 defeat at Newcastle, then a more professional than glamorous 3-1 win at Derby in the FA Cup, back in the league a 1-0 win against Fulham, followed by a lackluster 1-1 draw at Everton, and finally Arsenal’s 4-0 win at Elland Road as a sobering reminder of the gap to the top.
Across all competitions, Leeds have scored in four of their last five games and conceded in four of their last five, with more than 1.5 goals scored in four games, so control is rare. It is also striking that there have been no draws in the second half during this period; as soon as the tempo increases, games take on a direction. Farke also has to manage Meslier’s likely departure, with James sidelined, leaving Buonanotte and Gnonto to provide the attacking impetus.
Farke is expected to stick with a 3-4-2-1, with Darlow likely to start in goal behind a back three of Justin, Rodon, and Struijk. Bogle and Gudmundsson look like the most likely wingbacks, while Ampadu and Gruev would stabilize the midfield. In the forecast, Stach and Aaronson appear as the two creative players supporting Calvert Lewin in attack. With James still out with a thigh injury, Leeds could once again rely more on central combinations than pure wing play, making the wing play of Bogle and Gudmundsson even more important. The discussions about Meslier’s possible departure reinforce the impression that Darlow is the safer option in goal for now. If a broader offensive option is needed, Gnonto or Okafor could be the first substitutes, with Piroe as an alternative number nine.
Nottingham Form & Record Check
Forest travel to Elland Road in 17th place in the table with 26 points, level on points with Leeds and just three behind Crystal Palace, so there is little room for error, even with a six-point cushion over West Ham. Dyche has at least given them a clearer identity: they have not lost a first half in five games, and four of those games have ended with under 2.5 goals. The 1-1 draw with Palace summed up both the fight and the self-sabotage. Gibbs White scored after five minutes, then Williams handled the ball on the line and the resulting penalty changed the game. Sels was substituted at halftime with a groin strain, Gunn slotted in quickly, and Forest’s ten men kept Palace from having a shot on goal after the break. Before that, the 2-0 win at Brentford was disciplined and ruthless. Across all competitions, the picture remains mixed but encouraging: a 4-0 win in the Europa League against Ferencvarosi answered the 1-0 defeat at Braga, and the 0-0 draw with Arsenal underlined how secure Dyches’ team is in low-scoring games. The problem remains converting that control into goals while Wood continues to be sidelined. Lucca is a viable alternative, while Ortega and Netz provide additional depth in key positions.
Forest are expected to stick with Dyche’s usual 4-2-3-1, although that is only a projection. Williams is suspended after his red card, while Wood and Victor remain sidelined after knee surgery. Sels is the other player with a question mark, having recently suffered groin problems, so Ortega or Gunn may be needed if he does not come through training unscathed. If Sels starts, the predicted back four could consist of Aina, Milenković, Murillo, and new signing Netz, with Sangaré and Anderson in front of them for cover. Gibbs White should once again be the creative hub behind Jesus, flanked by Hudson Odoi and Ndoye to keep the counterattacks dangerous. Without Wood, Forest may rely more on early runs behind the defense rather than a pure target man.
Leeds – Nottingham Head-to-Head & Statistics
Nottingham Forest has the slight edge in the last five meetings, with three wins to Leeds’ two, and there have been no draws. The most recent matchup in November 2025 went 3-1 to Forest, continuing a competitive trend in which Forest has won three of the last four league or Championship encounters. Both of Leeds’ wins came in 2023, one of which was a friendly. Goals have generally been scored, but not in abundance: four of the five games have seen more than 1.5 total goals, yet four consecutive meetings from 2023 to 2020 have remained under 3.5, suggesting close results rather than goal fests. Interestingly, the data points to a series of three games in which the second half saw fewer than 1.5 goals, suggesting that the pace often slows down after the break. Forest has scored in four of the five games and is on a run of three games in which they have scored in the first half, while Leeds has conceded goals before halftime in three consecutive games. This early goal has been crucial, as neither team has scored many late goals. Leeds has only one clean sheet in this period, a 2-0 friendly win in 2023, which has a different significance.
