Key Facts
- Leeds are under pressure in 16th place with 22 points – Forest are just one point behind – while Fulham are ninth (31) and right behind Chelsea.
- Leeds’ series of draws (including 0-0 in Liverpool and 1-1 against United) has stabilized, but the 3-4 defeat in Newcastle exposed a fragile defense; they often score after the break.
- Fulham are unbeaten in five league games on the road, often starting slowly but finding solutions after the break – they have scored in each of their last five second halves.
- Injuries are affecting both teams: Leeds are missing Bogle (Wade) and James, which weakens the right side and their transition speed; Fulham have to improvise without Tete and Muniz.
- At odds of 2.2 vs. 3.5, “Both teams to score: Yes” looks like a safe bet, because Fulham have always scored in the series and Leeds have scored in 80% of their recent games and always at home.
- The head-to-head record favors Fulham: four wins in a row in regular time, often slow starts – four of five games were tied at halftime and under 1.5 goals.
When a game feels like a relegation battle, it’s usually because every point suddenly weighs more heavily than usual. That’s exactly the mood Leeds are in as they go into their Premier League clash on matchday 22 against Marco Silva’s Fulham on Saturday, January 17, at Elland Road, sitting 16th in the table with 22 points. Nottingham Forest are just one point behind, while Bournemouth are four points ahead. Fulham travel to ninth place with 31 points, level on points with Chelsea above them and just one point ahead of Sunderland below them. Fulham narrowly won the last league duel 1-0 in September, and Leeds have still never beaten them in this recent series, which adds extra weight to the matter. The league record suggests a contrast: Leeds stabilized with draws against Liverpool and Manchester United but come off late heartbreak at Newcastle, while Fulham’s momentum has been carried by goals and Wilson’s late influence. A draw is also highly rated, and injuries play a role: Bogle and James are out, along with Tete and Muniz for the visitors. Buonanotte’s arrival gives Leeds another creative option.
- Venue: Elland Road, Leeds
- Date and time: 17.01.2026, 16:00
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 22)
Leeds are the favorites at 2.2, while Fulham are attractive at 3.5, with Silva’s team unbeaten on the road and Wilson consistently tipping close games in the right direction. Leeds’ shaky form – underscored by predictions of a 2-2 draw and defensive leaks since the setback against Newcastle – argues for “Both teams to score: Yes,” especially with Muniz missing but the wingers still getting through well.
Leeds Form & Record Check
Leeds come into this game in 16th place at Elland Road with 22 points, leaving little room for error as Nottingham Forest are just one point behind. Their recent run in the league has been noticeably draw-heavy, which is helpful for survival but tough for momentum, and they are four points behind Bournemouth above them. Across all competitions, the mood is better after last weekend’s cup win. The last four league games show these two sides of the team. The 1-1 draw against Sunderland and the 0-0 draw at Liverpool were disciplined performances, with Leeds largely controlling the space and accepting a rather modest number of chances in attack. The 1-1 draw against Manchester United had more bite, but the final push was missing again. Then came Newcastle, and the 3-4 defeat exposed how quickly the structure can fall apart under pressure. In the FA Cup in Derby, Leeds turned a 0-1 deficit into a 3-1 victory, with Gnonto and Tanaka driving a much sharper second half, and Justin sealing the deal late on. This trend is real, as they have scored after the break in 80% of their last five games. The first halves remain subdued, with 80% scoring less than 1.5 goals, but overall they concede too often. Farque’s back five has made them tighter in these draws, but the plan sometimes descends into chaos when the wingbacks’ cover breaks down, and Bogle’s calf injury takes away options.
With James also missing, Aaronson and Okafor shoulder a lot of work on the wings, while Buonanotte’s loan brings another ball carrier between the lines. Set pieces remain a real weapon, with 12 goals without penalties, and long throw-ins have yielded 28 shots for 3.46 xG.
Farke is likely to stick with his recent 3-4-1-2, with Meslier behind a back three of Struijk, Bijol, and Rodon. Justin and Gudmundsson seem the most likely wing-backs, giving Leeds width, while Tanaka and Gruev set the tempo in the center. Aaronson would then operate between the lines and feed the striking duo of Piroe and Calvert Lewin. This is only a prediction, but the absences are shaping it. Bogle is still out with calf problems, so the right side will likely belong to Justin, with Byram as an alternative. James is also out with a thigh problem, which could lead Leeds to play more compact combinations rather than relying solely on pace in transition moments. If a goal is needed, Gnonto or Okafor are the obvious attacking options from the bench.
Fulham Form & Record Check
Fulham travels to Elland Road on the back of a decent Premier League run: unbeaten in five league games, sitting high in ninth place with 31 points and a balanced goal difference. They are level on points with Chelsea, who are just above them, and only one point ahead of Sunderland, so a place in the top half of the table is possible, but still precarious. Interestingly, their first halves have been rather tough lately, with little really happening before the break. At West Ham, they controlled the space and won 1-0, while the 1-1 draw at Palace showed a familiar theme: decent build-up play, but not consistent enough. In the 2-2 draw with Liverpool, Silva raged about the VAR decision involving Wirtz, but the reaction was spot on. The 2-1 win over Chelsea was their most complete performance, and Wilson has five goals and four assists in nine league games. The 3-1 FA Cup win over Middlesbrough underlined a clear pattern: Fulham often start slowly and then turn games around after the break. Wilson changed the game as a substitute, and his link-up play with Kevin and Smith Rowe was crucial. Across all competitions, they have scored in each of their last five second halves. Silva has promised Kusi Asare more minutes, but without Tete and Muniz, the squad is thin.
Silva is likely to stick with Fulham’s usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Leno behind a back four of Castagne, Andersen, Diop, and Robinson. The double pivot of Berge and Lukić should lay the foundation, with Smith Rowe slotting in as the central link. On the wings, Traoré and Kevin are expected to provide danger in one-on-one situations alongside Jiménez. Tete is on the sidelines with a thigh injury, so Castagne is considered the likely replacement at right-back. Muniz is also missing up front, making Jiménez the most obvious starter and leaving Kusi Asare as the clear replacement. Wilson’s recent influence, including in the cup, could still push him into this XI, even if the current assessment sees him as an option for the bench at first.
Leeds – Fulham Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the most recent head-to-head comparison, Fulham had a clear advantage, with four wins from the last five games, plus the one that ended in a draw before Leeds narrowly won on penalties. And there’s a real streak in there too: Fulham won the last four duels in regular time, from 2022 to September 2025. The results were mostly close.
In September 2025, Fulham beat Leeds 1-0. In 2023, Fulham won 2-1 in the league and also beat Leeds 2-0 in the FA Cup 5th round, knocking Leeds out of the competition. In 2022, Fulham won an away game in the league 3-2. The outlier was in 2021, when Leeds won 6-5 on penalties after a 0-0 draw in extra time. Interestingly, the early stages were often rather tough. Four of the five games were tied at halftime, and four of five remained under 1.5 goals in the first half, so the starts were mostly uneventful. Even over 90 minutes, the games remained largely controlled, with four out of five ending with less than 3.5 goals in total. The recurring movement came after the break. Leeds conceded a goal in the second half in four of those five games, and Fulham scored after the break in four out of five, which fits well with the impression that Silva’s team finds solutions later on. Looking ahead to Saturday, Leeds without James and Fulham without Muniz and probably still without Tete could shift the balance, particularly in the way both teams manage these second-half phases.
