Leeds – Everton
Promoted Leeds kicks off the regular season on Monday evening at Elland Road, Matchday 1, against David Moyes’ Everton side. The first statement in the upper house is given extra spice because Dominic Calvert-Lewin is now in Leeds, and Daniel Farke will probably ration his playing time. Everton travels with upheaval and injury questions in defense, Jarrad Branthwaite is missing, Vitaliy Mykolenko is doubtful, and Jack Grealish is likely to come off the bench initially. For context, Everton won the last direct duel 1-0 in February 2023, and the Toffees have had the upper hand in the last five encounters, with Leeds failing to win. Leeds came through the preseason solidly, including a 1-1 draw against Milan, and has noticeably upgraded its defense. In terms of tactics, Leeds will want to set the pace at home, while Everton will look for stability despite their makeshift back four. Some previews are predicting a tight game with few chances and a slight away advantage, but the fact that it’s the first game of the season could swing the pendulum either way.
Leeds – Everton info
- Venue: Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
- Date and time: 18.08.2025, 21:00
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 1)
The arguments for the betting outlook are mounting: Leeds will win – the first half will build on the 80% value of their recent first halves and Farke’s lightning starts, reinforced by the Elland Road momentum against an Everton side that will have to improvise with Garner on the right and Aznou on the left due to the absences of Branthwaite and Mykolenko. Both teams to score: Yes fits the picture, Leeds have scored in all of their last five games, Everton have enough attacking impetus with Grealish, Dewsbury-Hall and Alcaraz, and McNeil’s crosses remain a weapon anyway. Over 2.5 goals is based on Leeds’ 80% rate and the visitors’ defensive instability. Those who want to take more risk should look at over 3.5. 1X takes advantage of the home advantage and the hosts’ strong run, with even Alan Shearer predicting a close result, which further underlines Leeds’ ability not to lose. Over 1.5 goals – the second half seems plausible due to possible joker effects, Everton can reload late with Beto or Grealish, and Farke will carefully ration Calvert-Lewin. Interestingly, the previews suggest that it could get tactically wilder at times, with Leeds likely to dominate the early stages, after which the game could open up for goals.
Leeds form & record check
Leeds came into this season on the back of a clean sweep in all competitions last season: 2-1 against Preston, 1-0 at Oxford, 6-0 against Stoke, 4-0 against Bristol City, 2-1 at Plymouth. Early leads and a very stable second half, without conceding a goal after the break, were notable. The rhythm seemed mature and the processes coherent.
The preseason confirmed this picture, albeit less spectacularly, with a 1-1 draw against Villarreal and a 1-1 draw against Milan in Dublin, with a remarkable goal from Anton Stach and a decent debut from goalkeeper Lucas Perri. Willy Gnonto brought depth to the half-spaces. Daniel Farke is likely to vary between Joël Piroe and new signing Dominic Calvert-Lewin up front until the latter is fully fit and in sync.
In terms of personnel, Farke has opted for more height and robustness, with new signings such as Bijol, Bornauw, Gudmundsson, Longstaff, and Stach, as well as goalkeeper Lucas Perri. Up front, Dan James and Gnonto provide pace, while Calvert-Lewin increases the options in the center. Leeds are currently 14th in the table, level on points with Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest, and their form across all competitions is on the up.
Leeds are expected to start in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Meslier in goal and a back four of Bogle, Rodon, Ampadu, and Gudmundsson. This fits in with Farke’s basic setup. Ampadu could drop into midfield when needed, with Rodon covering behind him. The priority is to maintain a balance between width on the wings and a solid defense.
In front of them, Stach and Tanaka are expected to play as double sixes, with Aaronson as the number ten, James and Gnonto on the wings, and Piroe as the lone striker. Alternatives are available, such as Longstaff or Gruev for more control in the center. Calvert-Lewin is being carefully built up by Farke in terms of fitness, so he is more likely to come off the bench. This remains a prediction, and last-minute changes are possible.
Everton Form & Record Check
Everton’s form across all competitions has been mixed. At the end of the season, they lost 2-0 to Southampton and 1-0 at Newcastle, followed by a 3-0 defeat to Bournemouth in the Summer Series, a 2-1 loss at West Ham and most recently a 2-2 draw against Manchester United. Structurally, they looked more stable against United, although their defense was noticeably shaky in transition moments. Interestingly, the first half often ends in a draw.
There are still opportunities to get into the game, however, with Everton scoring in four of their last five games and four of those games seeing more than 1.5 goals in total. David Moyes could bring Grealish on as a substitute and put Dewsbury-Hall alongside Gueye to help with ball circulation, while Barry is hoping for some minutes. Without Calvert-Lewin, they need versatility, Beto as a target in the box, and runs from the second line.
Defensively, the situation remains delicate. With Branthwaite and Mykolenko injured, the back four is likely to be improvised, with Garner on the right and Aznou on the left, as was evident in the defeats against Bournemouth and West Ham. Travers and new signing Tom King are increasing the pressure on the number one. Everton start the season in 11th place in the table, formally between Chelsea and Manchester United. Early trend: solid start, dangerous set pieces, but vulnerable on the wings.
Our prediction is 4-3-3 under Moyes. Pickford in goal, in front of him a back four of Garner, Tarkowski, Keane and Aznou. Gueye will anchor the midfield alongside Dewsbury-Hall and Alcaraz. In attack, McNeil, Barry, and Ndiaye are likely to feature. This is a possible starting XI, not a confirmation, but it fits the current personnel situation and the profiles in the squad.
In terms of personnel, there are many reasons to field a makeshift defense. Mykolenko and Branthwaite are out, so Garner could start on the right and Aznou on the left, with Tarkowski and Keane providing stability in the center. Grealish is likely to be used as a substitute, as is Beto. Barry could make his Premier League debut. Following Calvert-Lewin’s move to Leeds, the options up front have been redistributed, making Barry’s role plausible.
H2H Leeds – Everton Head-to-Head & Statistics
Everton have the clear upper hand in the last five head-to-head matches, with three wins, two draws and no wins for Leeds. The results in detail: 1-0 for Everton in 2023, 3-0 for Everton and 1-1 in 2022, and 2-2 and 2-1 for Everton in 2021. The bottom line is a series of five unbeaten games for the visitors.
The distribution between home and away games is striking. In Leeds’ home games in 2021 and 2022, there were two draws and one win for Everton, meaning the visitors are unbeaten in three away games. Everton won both home games without conceding a goal, in 2022 and 2023.
The goal profile shows a tight pattern. Four of the five games had at least two goals, and four had fewer than 3.5. The second halves were mostly quiet, with fewer than 1.5 goals in four of the five games. Everton scored in all five games, often early with four successful first halves, while Leeds conceded in all five without a win of their own.
