Leeds goes into this match with its back against the wall, eleven points, 18th place and six defeats from the last seven league games make the match against Chelsea a possible turning point for the club and for coach Daniel Farke. Internally, Farke is already being viewed critically, and poor results against Chelsea and then Liverpool could have personnel consequences. In sporting terms, Leeds are in a tight spot, mainly due to their weak offense, with only eleven goals in 13 league games, which is why there is already intense internal discussion about reinforcements in January. Chelsea, on the other hand, are third in the table with 24 points and are clear favorites, even though Enzo Maresca’s team only had three days to recover after their 1-1 draw with Arsenal. The visitors will be without Moisés Caicedo, who is suspended, and will be missing an important stabilizing influence in midfield, but overall the Blues’ squad is largely competitive. Leeds have at least shown some fighting spirit recently, for example in their 3-2 defeat at Manchester City, but they lack consistency, while Chelsea appear solid defensively and have demonstrated their quality in attack, including with a convincing 3-0 win over Barcelona, but also with a grueling 1-1 draw against Arsenal in difficult conditions. The most recent direct encounters between the two teams have often been high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals scored in 80% of the last five meetings. Tactically, Leeds are likely to focus on attack, high intensity, and quick transitions in front of their home crowd, with set pieces also providing important opportunities. Without Caicedo, Chelsea will have to close down the center, control counterattacks, and at the same time manage the strain of the last few days, as the short recovery time increases the risk of mistakes and physical breakdowns during the game. Despite Chelsea being the clear favorites, there are many indications that this will be an open game with plenty of chances. Leeds’ desperation and the strain on the visitors suggest that goals are likely.
- Venue: Elland Road, Leeds
- Date and time: December 3, 2025, 9:15 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 14)
Our three betting tips are based on clear data and paint a similar picture: Tip 1 is that Chelsea will win; the Blues are clear favorites despite the short recovery time after the Arsenal game. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last five games and have scored at least one goal in every game this season, while Leeds go into this match on the back of four consecutive defeats and with clear defensive weaknesses.
Leeds form & record check
Leeds are deep in the relegation battle with 11 points from 13 games, currently placing them 18th in the table. Their form is poor, with four defeats in their last five league games. Leeds have conceded at least one goal in all five games, and in four of those games, they lost the second half in particular. There have been some bright spots in attack, such as the 3-2 comeback win at Manchester City after trailing 2-0, but overall, only 11 goals in 12 league games is clearly not enough. Defensively, the problems were evident in games such as the 3-0 defeat to Brighton, the 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest, and the 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa. There are several reasons for the crisis: a lack of defensive stability, especially after the break; too few goals despite well-known offensive players such as Calvert-Lewin, who has not been convincing so far, and Nmecha, who has only moderate stats; and controversial personnel decisions in the summer, such as the departure of Bamford without an equivalent replacement. Added to this is the psychological pressure on Daniel Farke, who is working without a new contract and, according to internal reports, could face dismissal if the upcoming home games against Chelsea and Liverpool again fail to yield any points. In the short term, until the winter break, the focus will be on a tighter defensive formation with clearer roles, more compact spacing after the break, and clear substitution plans for stabilizing forces, as well as better mental and physical management around halftime with targeted talks, conditioning adjustments, and more thoughtful substitution timing to avoid slumps after the break. Offensively, Leeds needs more variability. Alternative system scenarios with overloads on the wings or a second striker as a counterattack option could help to better integrate Calvert-Lewin and Nmecha. At the same time, the transfer plan should be accelerated, with priority given to a defensive leader and a goal-scoring striker or offensive player, preferably as early as January. In the medium term, the club’s management seems prepared to change coaches if there is no turnaround in order to still have an influence on the January transfer market. Without a noticeable improvement in performance and selective reinforcements, a tough relegation battle remains very likely. Positive results against Chelsea and Liverpool would significantly reduce the pressure, but further defeats are likely to result in personnel changes and an even more tense atmosphere.
Coach Daniel Farke is not expected to spring any big surprises and will once again rely on the tried-and-tested 4-3-3 system. Perri will start in goal. The back four will consist of Bogle, Rodon, Struijk, and Justin. Three players are expected to start in midfield: Ampadu, Tanaka, and Longstaff, while Stach is out with an injury. James, Nmecha, and Gnonto are planned to start up front. Please note that this lineup is a prediction until the official announcement of the starting eleven.
Chelsea Form & Record Check
Chelsea are currently in third place with 24 points, just one point behind Manchester City, and their form is clearly on the up, with three wins and two draws from their last five games indicating stability under Enzo Maresca. What is striking is their strength in the second half; Chelsea often remain in the game at half-time and decide many matches after the break, with the team rarely conceding goals after the break. The 3-0 win against Barcelona in the Champions League and must-win games such as the 2-0 win at Burnley and the 3-0 win against Wolves underline both their offensive and defensive qualities, with goalkeeper Sánchez already keeping seven clean sheets in 13 league games. The 1-1 draw against Arsenal was an example of maturity in dealing with adversity. After Caicedo was sent off in the 38th minute, Chelsea played with ten men, but still took the lead through Chalobah and defended with discipline. Sánchez saved two big chances, James dominated the midfield, and overall it was a very strong performance. In terms of personnel, Caicedo’s suspension against Leeds weighs heavily, as does Colwill’s long-term absence with a cruciate ligament rupture, Lavia is out with a muscle injury and Mudryk is also suspended. On a positive note, Palmer is back after a two-month break, and the intensive squad rotation continues, but is clearly supported by the results and performances so far. Overall, Chelsea look well organized, especially after half-time, and the depth of the squad is likely to be a decisive factor in the busy Christmas period. If it remains reasonably intact, Chelsea have a good chance of maintaining their current form and picking up more important points.
Chelsea are expected to start with their usual 4-2-3-1 system, with coach Enzo Maresca having to improvise, especially in central defense. With Levi Colwill out long-term with a cruciate ligament rupture, Wesley Fofana and Trevoh Chalobah are likely to start in central defense. In midfield, Roméo Lavia is still out with a muscle injury, so the central midfield is a little thin on the ground. Robert Sánchez is likely to be in goal; he has significantly reduced his error rate recently and leads the league with seven clean sheets. In attack, Cole Palmer could return to the starting lineup after a two-month break, while Estêvão’s playing time continues to be carefully managed. It will be interesting to see whether Maresca makes any further personnel adjustments after the intensive rotation of recent weeks.
Leeds – Chelsea Head-to-head comparison & statistics
Chelsea and Leeds have won the last five head-to-head matches, with Chelsea winning four times and Leeds only once, and no draws. The last meeting in February 2024 took place in the FA Cup and ended in a 3-2 win for Chelsea after a high-scoring game. Leeds’ only win in this series was a clear one, defeating Chelsea 3-0 at home in August 2022. Four of the last five games have produced at least three goals, with Chelsea scoring in four of those games and Leeds conceding at least one goal in as many games. In conclusion, the pairing has recently produced a lot of goals on a regular basis, and a defensive scoreless draw seems almost impossible in this series.
