Key Facts
- Leeds are 16th with 26 points, just two behind Palace and one ahead of Forest; Arsenal lead with 50 points, four ahead of City – every point has different implications.
- Leeds have lost only once in their last five league games, but have scored in all five and conceded in four – their games often get wild after the break.
- Arsenal may be winless in their last three league games, but they come into this game on the back of eight Champions League wins from eight games; nevertheless, four of their last five games have seen over 2.5 goals scored.
- Leeds are without Nmecha and Bijol, as well as James, which means Calvert Lewin will carry even more of the attacking burden; Gudmundsson is doubtful, while Arsenal are planning without the injured Dowman.
- The head-to-head record clearly favors Arsenal: five league wins in a row, 16:3 goals, always ahead at halftime – Leeds failed to score before halftime in all five games.
- At 1.5 odds, Arsenal are clear favorites away from home; 2+ goals in four of their last five games and an 80% first-half scoring rate support this, while “both teams to score” remains interesting due to Leeds’ Elland Road goals.
The memory of the 5-0 defeat at the Emirates still haunts Leeds, and it is precisely this image that resonates when Daniel Farke’s team welcomes Arsenal to Elland Road on Saturday, January 31, in the Premier League, Round 24. Leeds are in 16th place with 26 points, two points behind Crystal Palace and one ahead of Nottingham Forest, while Arsenal travel to the ground as league leaders with 50 points, four points ahead of Manchester City, and are clear favorites in the betting markets. Leeds have recently drawn and achieved narrow results in the league, while Arsenal have dropped points in three consecutive league games. In a direct comparison, however, there is much to be said for the visitors: Arsenal have won five league games in a row, including a resounding 5-0 victory in August, when Gyökeres scored twice. Leeds will be without Nmecha and Bijol, while Gudmundsson is doubtful, so Calvert Lewin could once again carry much of the burden in attack. Arsenal are coming off a 3-2 win over Kairat and a flawless Champions League group stage, while Mikel Arteta is pushing for a mental reset after the defeat to Manchester United.
- Venue: Elland Road, Leeds
- Date and time: January 31, 2026, 4:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 24)
The market makes Arsenal the clear away favorites, with the team listed at odds of 1.5. At the same time, the same indicators also point to goals: Leeds will have to do without Nmecha and Bijol, and Arteta’s restart after the game against Manchester United comes on the heels of a Champions League run of eight wins from eight games, suggesting a determined response. So “Arsenal to win” and “Arsenal over 1.5 goals” seem logical given the circumstances.
Leeds Form & Record Check
Leeds are 16th in the table with 26 points, and the table remains tight. Crystal Palace are only two points ahead of them, Nottingham Forest are one point behind, so even a draw carries significant weight. There has been only one defeat in the last five league games, which is somewhat reassuring, but not enough to really breathe a sigh of relief. The fundamental problem remains control of the game, with leads too often slipping away in nervous final phases. Monday’s 1-1 draw at Everton fitted the pattern, with a strong first half followed by a collapse when the score changed. Justin finished off a move after Stach’s low cross, and Calvert Lewin hit the post, but after the break, the initiative was lost and Leeds took the point. Before that, there was a tough 1-0 win against Fulham and a wild 4-3 defeat at Newcastle, which exposed defensive gaps. Across all competitions, the 3-1 FA Cup win at Derby showed they can punish deep-lying defenses if the tempo remains high, and the 1-1 draw with Manchester United was encouraging for the organization. Nevertheless, the pattern is clear: Leeds have scored in each of their last five games and do most of their damage after the break.
The downside is that they have conceded in four of those five games, with clean sheets remaining a rarity. The goal profile fits the pattern too, with under 1.5 goals in the first half in four of the last five games, while after the break it often opens up, with over 1.5 goals total also occurring four times. This has been a familiar pattern this season, with the team creating chances when they need to catch up, with 18 big chances in deficit situations, but defending a lead is more difficult, with six wins from 12 games when they scored first. In terms of personnel, Farque’s options are limited again, with Nmecha definitely out with a hamstring injury and Bijol also missing against Arsenal, which should give Rodon and Struijk even more responsibility in build-up play and transition moments. Gudmundsson has a chance of playing despite his adductor problem, while James remains sidelined. Offensively, the most direct route continues to look the clearest, with Calvert Lewin’s presence in the box supported by Aaronson and Gnonto.
Leeds are likely to stick with a back three with wingbacks, with Darlow expected to continue in goal. Rodon, Bornauw, and Struijk would form the central trio, while Bogle and Justin would provide width. In midfield, Ampadu and Gruev could stabilize the game and free up Aaronson and Okafor to press behind Calvert Lewin and link up play. The lineup could once again be affected by injuries. James remains sidelined with a thigh injury, Nmecha is also out with thigh problems, and Bijol is also expected to be unavailable, limiting Farke’s rotation options. Gudmundsson has a chance of involvement after his adductor problems, and if he is cleared, he could play for minutes as a wingback, otherwise Byram is the obvious backup.
Arsenal Form & Record Check
Arsenal remain top of the Premier League with 50 points, four points ahead of Manchester City, but the league pendulum has been swinging a little wildly of late. They are without a win in three league games, and the 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest felt like a warning, with plenty of control and an xG of 2.37, but no clinical finishing. The 3-2 home defeat to Manchester United fueled the doubts. In all competitions, however, Arteta’s team continues to rack up wins, often the hard way. They beat Inter 3-1 away in the Champions League, then beat Kairat Almaty 3-2 to complete eight wins from eight games in the group stage. The League Cup semi-final at Chelsea ended 3-2 to Arsenal, but the pattern remains similar: they score early but too often invite chaos late on. The numbers underscore this, with four of their last five games exceeding 2.5 goals and conceding in four of those games. Arteta’s post-Manchester United reorientation, aimed at dispelling the fear of failure, seems almost as important as any adjustment in pressing. Gyökeres and Havertz are delivering, Martinelli seems more alert, but Ødegaard and Eze still seem to be torn between freedom and control. Dowman is still missing.
Arteta is expected to stick with his usual 4-3-3, with Raya behind White, Saliba, Gabriel, and Calafiori. In possession, Calafiori could move inside to support Zubimendi in building attacks, allowing Rice to push forward and Ødegaard to link play between the lines. Saka and Martinelli should maintain width, with Gyökeres the central outlet for pressing and runs into the box. The biggest problem appears to be Dowman, who remains sidelined with an ankle injury. If Arteta wants more control or fresh legs, Timber is a likely alternative at full-back, while Merino or Nørgaard could rotate into midfield. Havertz, back to fitness, offers another option as a nine or as a pressing eight, and Trossard is the obvious change on the wing.
Leeds – Arsenal Head-to-Head & Statistics
Arsenal have won all five of their last five encounters, 5-0 in August 2025, 4-1 in 2023, 1-0 and 2-1 in 2022, and 4-1 in 2021. That run has seen Arsenal score 16 goals and Leeds just 3, with Arsenal keeping two clean sheets. The first half is particularly striking. Arsenal were ahead at half-time in all five games, while Leeds failed to score in the first half in any of the games and conceded a goal before half-time every time. For Farke, this record suggests that the early stages mean survival mode, especially against Arteta’s teams, who start quickly. Once Arsenal took the lead, the goals often came in quick succession. In four of the five games, more than 2.5 goals were scored, and in three games, both teams scored, but Leeds only scored after halftime. The exception was in 2022, a 1-0 win that was on a knife edge for a long time, but it still followed the same pattern of Arsenal control.
