League leaders SSC Napoli travel to the Stadio Via del Mare on Tuesday evening with the burden of several absences, where US Lecce need every point in their battle against relegation. After an impressive 3-1 win over Inter, Napoli sits atop the league table with 18 points, level with AS Roma, while Lecce is fighting for survival in Serie A in 16th place with only six points. The form curves could hardly be more different: Lecce picked up four points from its last three games, but suffered a bitter setback in a 3-2 defeat at Udinese. Napoli, on the other hand, proved their current strength in the top match against Inter, turning the game around despite De Bruyne’s early exit with goals from McTominay and Anguissa. The head-to-head record speaks for itself in favor of the Partenopei: four wins in the last five encounters, including a 1-0 victory on the same matchday a year ago and a 1-0 away win in May. However, Napoli has to cope with a number of setbacks in terms of personnel: regular goalkeeper Meret is out until at least mid-December with a metatarsal fracture, and Lobotka and Lukaku are also missing. The betting market sees Napoli as the clear favorite with a more than two-thirds chance of winning, an assessment supported by their position in the table, recent performances, and historical dominance.
- Venue: Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
- Date and time: October 28, 2025, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 9)
Despite personnel problems with Lobotka, Lukaku, and the goalkeeper crisis surrounding Meret and Contini, Napoli are clear favorites for this match. Their form and recent results, especially the 3-1 win against Inter and their high scoring rate, clearly point to an away win. Bookmakers are offering odds of around 1.5 for a Napoli win, with statistics showing that Napoli has scored in around 80% of its last games, but has also conceded at least one goal in each of its last five games. Lecce is still waiting for its first win at home and has only picked up five points from its last five games, but could play more offensively due to the home pressure. The safest bet is a Napoli away win, based on form, squad quality, and recent results. A bet on over 2.5 goals also seems interesting, as around 80% of Napoli’s games have exceeded this mark and Lecce’s games have also been high-scoring recently, as shown by the 3-2 win against Udinese and the 2-2 draw against Bologna. Those looking for a higher risk could bet on both teams to score, which makes sense given Lecce’s offensive efforts and Napoli’s defensive problems, including their goalkeeper crisis. The stake should be adjusted to the respective risk appetite, and short-term team news should be taken into account before placing a bet, as goalkeeper and personnel issues can have a significant impact on the odds.
Lecce Form & Record Check
Lecce is currently in 16th place, just one point ahead of Verona and just behind Parma. After a very poor start to the season, the team under Eusebio Di Francesco has recently shown stability, picking up four points from its last three league games with a 0-0 draw against Sassuolo, a 1-0 win in Parma, and a 2-3 win in Udine. The defeat in Udine ended this small run and revealed continuing glaring defensive problems. In Udine, Lecce were 2-0 down at halftime thanks to goals from Karlström and Davis, came back through Berisha, but conceded the decisive goal in the 89th minute through Buksa. N’Dris scored in stoppage time, but the goal came too late. Particularly worrying is the fact that the defense conceded goals in both halves of two consecutive games, revealing a lack of consistency and weak starts as clear weaknesses. Sottil, who is expected to be out until tomorrow, as well as Marchwinski and Jean are missing, which weakens the offensive options and reduces tactical flexibility. For the upcoming game, Lecce must focus on the early stages, with clear defensive assignments and more compact midfield pressing. The many late goals conceded point to concentration and communication problems that urgently need to be improved. Against stronger opponents, an additional defensive midfielder could bring stability, while Berisha and N’Dris should be used as passing options.
Lecce is expected to start with its usual 4-2-3-1 formation. Falcone will be in goal, with Veiga, Gaspar, Gabriel, and Gallo forming the back four. Ramadani and Berisha will play as a double pivot in defensive midfield. The attacking trio will consist of Pierotti, Helgason, and Banda, with Stulic as the lone striker. Sottil is out with muscle problems, Marchwinski is also unavailable, and Jean is still out with a cruciate ligament rupture. Coach Di Francesco is relying on his most recent line-up and seems more stable again after a bumpy start to the season.
Napoli form & record check
Napoli secured the top spot in the table for the time being with a 3-1 win over Inter and are now level on points with AS Roma at the top. The team is showing high effectiveness in Serie A, although their form has fluctuated with three wins and two defeats. Napoli looked mature against Inter: De Bruyne gave the visitors the lead from the penalty spot, but had to be substituted shortly afterwards due to injury. After the break, McTominay made it 2-0, Calhanoglu pulled one back from the penalty spot, before Anguissa restored the two-goal lead in the 67th minute. It is noteworthy that Napoli have conceded goals in all five of their most recent games, but have scored in four of those five. The 6-2 defeat to PSV Eindhoven highlighted the team’s defensive vulnerability. Despite taking the lead and a brace from McTominay, the defense fell apart: an own goal from Buongiorno initiated the collapse, with further goals from Man and Pepi sealing the deal. The game illustrates that Napoli are more vulnerable internationally than in Serie A, where they have only stumbled against leaders Torino so far. The personnel situation is tense: Goalkeeper Meret has suffered a metatarsal fracture and will be out for at least a month, with surgery a possibility. Lobotka and Lukaku are also unavailable. On a positive note, Contini may return in time after breaking his hand. Despite the absences, the offense remains accurate, but the defense needs to become more stable if Napoli wants to defend its position at the top of the table.
The personnel situation at Napoli is tense: regular goalkeeper Meret is out for at least a month with a metatarsal fracture, so Milinković-Savić will apparently be in goal. Lukaku is out with a thigh injury, and Lobotka is also unavailable with adductor problems. Højlund is questionable due to muscle fatigue, and De Bruyne had muscle problems after converting his penalty, but could return in time. Coach Antonio Conte is expected to opt for the tried-and-tested 3-4-2-1 system. The expected back three consists of Rrahmani, Buongiorno, and Juan Jesus. In midfield, McTominay and Anguissa form the central duo, with Di Lorenzo on the right and Spinazzola on the left. Lucca is expected to lead the line, supported by De Bruyne and Politano.
Lecce – Napoli Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record since 2023 clearly favors Napoli: of five games, Napoli won four, with one game ending in a draw in May 2024. Lecce has thus been waiting for a win against Napoli for over two years. All five encounters were low-scoring at halftime, with no more than one goal scored in the first 45 minutes and Napoli leading at halftime in two games. The decisive moments and goals came mainly in the second half, when Napoli played to their strengths. The most notable result was Napoli’s 4-0 win in September 2023, with the other victories being closer, including a 1-0 win in May 2024 and a 1-0 win in October 2024. Lecce scored only once at halftime during this phase and showed little punch overall. The 0-0 draw in May 2024 is the only positive point for Lecce in these statistics; otherwise, form and efficiency clearly favor Napoli.
