When Ciro Immobile enters the Stadio Olimpico wearing the Bologna jersey, this Serie A duel between Lazio Rome and Bologna will take on a special intensity. Lazio’s long-standing record goalscorer returns as an opposing striker, and the Curva Nord will be watching him closely, especially since no Bologna fans are allowed to travel due to a stadium ban imposed after riots in Udine. In sporting terms, the match is also a test run for next month’s Coppa Italia quarter-finals, with both teams testing their mettle here, so to speak. A direct comparison of recent performances also favors Bologna, with Lazio Rome winning only one of the last five matches. One of the most painful memories in Rome is the 5-0 home defeat last March. Nevertheless, the visitors do not appear entirely stable, with coach Vincenzo Italiano describing last weekend’s 3-1 home defeat to Cremonese as a major missed opportunity. Both teams narrowly won their Coppa Italia matches during the week, with Lazio Rome beating Milan 1-0 thanks to a late goal from Mattia Zaccagni, and Bologna needing a goal from Santiago Castro in the 89th minute to defeat Parma 2-1, with Jonathan Rowe’s first goal for Bologna providing a rare bright spot. Injuries are playing a role in terms of personnel, with Lazio missing Nicolò Rovella, an important playmaker in the center, due to inflammation of the pubic bone, and Bologna missing Remo Freuler due to a broken collarbone, meaning that Nikola Moro or Tommaso Pobega will likely have to step in midfield. All of this points to a tense, tactical duel, further charged by the upcoming cup match and the story surrounding Immobile’s return.
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Date and time: 07.12.2025, 6:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 14)
The relatively tight odds on the market reflect the genuine uncertainty ahead of this game, but Bologna’s recent away form and goal threat in the second half make the visitors an interesting bet. Lazio Rome is weakened in the center by the absences of Rovella and Cataldi, control in midfield is suffering, and Bologna should find more space for aggressive pressing and quick counterattacks. Castro’s late Coppa Italia winner against Parma underscores the danger after the break and, given Lazio Rome’s personnel situation, justifies considering Bologna at around 3.00 in the match odds as a value option. A balanced betting approach would be a small stake on “Bologna to win” as a riskier value pick, combined with a more conservative bet on “Both teams to score: Yes,” as Bologna scores regularly, while Lazio’s low-scoring pattern makes pure speculation on many goals unnecessarily risky. It is important to keep an eye on late team news and the final lineups. If, for example, additional defensive or wing players return to Lazio Rome and bring stability, the risk of an away win should be reduced and a more moderate bet placed on “Both teams to score: Yes” or on under/over markets with a focus on one to two goals.
Lazio Rome form & record check
Lazio Rome is currently inconsistent, but rarely loses by a large margin and usually delivers close results. The team is in eighth place in the table with 18 points, level on points with Udinese and five points behind Juventus in fourth place. In their last five league games, they have had three wins and two losses, no draws, all games ended with under 2.5 goals, and the first halves were often low on chances. The pattern suggests a fairly solid defense overall, with several games without conceding a goal, but at the same time, the offense seems rather dull, especially at the beginning of games. Defeats against top opponents such as Milan and Inter have shown that Lazio has problems breaking down well-organized pressing and defensive structures, while victories against Cagliari and Lecce prove that they can control weaker opponents and largely keep them away from their own goal. To make matters worse, there are injuries in midfield, with Rovella out until early January and Cataldi expected to be out until mid-December, which noticeably reduces momentum and ball progression in the center and contributes to slow, sometimes sterile first halves with little creativity between defense and attack. Coach Maurizio Sarri is therefore heavily reliant on reliable transitions and chance creation from the remaining midfielders, with the focus on Zaccagni, who recently made an impact against Milan in the Coppa Italia, the efficiency of the attacking line, and the midfielders who have to replace Rovella and Cataldi. Defensive organization and set pieces remain key given the low number of goals scored. In the short term, more close results with few goals are likely as long as the key players in the center are missing; in order to work their way up the table, Lazio will need more consistency, whether through bolder rotation in midfield to cushion the absences, more aggressive early pressing to invigorate the opening phases, or slightly altered attacking patterns with more overloads and vertical passes, until winter reinforcements or the return of Rovella restore the balance.
Lazio Rome are likely to start in a 4-3-3 formation, with Maurizio Sarri as coach. Mandas is expected to start in goal, in front of a back four with Marušić on the right, Gila as right center back, Alessio Romagnoli in the center and Lorenzo Pellegrini on the left. In midfield, Toma Bašić, Matteo Guendouzi, and Matías Vecino are expected to form the central trio, while in attack, Isak Isaksen is likely to start on the right wing, Johan Vásquez Castellanos in the center, and Mattia Zaccagni on the left. Nicolò Rovella is out with pubic bone inflammation, which is why Bašić is expected to move into the starting lineup in the three-man midfield alongside Guendouzi and Vecino. Tactically, a solid, rather simple defensive setup with a back four in front of Mandas is to be expected. Up front, Castellanos will act as the target man, supported by the wingers Isaksen and Zaccagni, who is coming into the game with a lot of confidence after his match-winning performance against Milan.
FC Bologna Form & Record Check
Bologna currently sits sixth in the table with 24 points, level with Como and just one point ahead of Juventus, which shows how close the top half of Serie A is this season. The team is in strong form, winning four of its last five games in all competitions, including notable victories over Napoli (2-0), Udinese (3-0), and Red Bull Salzburg (4-1) in the Europa League. The only defeat in this run was a 3-1 home loss to Cremonese, which was also the team’s first defeat at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara this season. Bologna’s strength after the break is striking, having won 80% of their recent games after the interval, but they have never led at halftime in their last five games, which points to strong character and good in-game coaching, but also to recurring slow starts, especially against stronger opponents. The team is missing some key players, with Remo Freuler out until around the end of December with a broken collarbone and Alex Ravaglia replacing the injured Lukasz Skorupski in goal, who is sidelined with a muscle problem. Ravaglia had a difficult evening against Cremonese, with some serious defensive errors also playing a role. The double burden of the league, Europa League, and cup will continue to test the depth of the squad. Short-term priorities are better starts in the first half through tactical and mental adjustments, a more stable defense to reduce avoidable goals, and smart rotation to compensate for the absences in midfield and in goal. If Vincenzo Italiano manages to minimize the slow starts and occasional defensive lapses while also managing injuries and rotation effectively, Bologna should remain competitive both domestically and internationally. Otherwise, they risk slipping down the table in what is an extremely tight race.
Bologna are expected to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation, but will have to make changes due to injuries. Alex Ravaglia is likely to start in goal, as Lukasz Skorupski remains sidelined with a muscle problem. In defensive midfield, Joshua Ferguson is expected to line up alongside Osman Sulemana to compensate for the absence of Remo Freuler, whose broken collarbone deprives the team of experience and leadership. In the attacking trio, Federico Bernardeschi is expected to take on the central playmaker role behind lone striker Tijjani Dallinga, while Riccardo Fabbian and Juraj Rowe will occupy the wide positions, with Rowe coming into the game with added confidence after scoring his first goal for Bologna in the Coppa Italia victory over Parma. Despite further absences, the back four is likely to remain largely unchanged, with Davide Zappacosta and Riccardo Calafiori or the usual alternatives at full-back, while Andrés Carrasco, also known as Lucumí, and Heggem will form the central defensive pairing in the absence of Jan Vítek. Overall, the basic formation remains familiar, with only the goalkeeper and defensive midfield pairing being reshuffled due to injuries.
Lazio Rome – FC Bologna Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last five direct duels, Bologna has won three matches, Lazio Rome won once, 3-0 in November 2024, and the most recent encounter was Bologna’s 5-0 victory in March 2025. Between 2023 and early 2024, the results were much closer, with a 0-0, a 1-0, and a 2-1, which suggests a historically cautious, wait-and-see duel before the clear results at the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025. It is also striking that the last four games between these two teams were 0-0 at halftime, meaning that both teams started very cautiously and mostly shifted the decisive action to the second half. Four games in a row ended with less than 3.5 goals in total, so high scores remain the exception despite individual outliers such as the 3-0 and 5-0 results. Overall, a direct comparison reveals a pattern of close, low-scoring games with two clear outliers, which makes predictions difficult and currently gives Bologna a slight psychological advantage, even though Lazio responded impressively in November 2024. The most plausible scenario is once again a goalless first half with goals after the break, and this assessment is in the medium confidence range. For the goal market, under 3.5 total goals is a reasonable bet with medium confidence, as history shows rather low to medium-high results. A clear tip on a winner remains risky; if anything, a small bet on Bologna to win is possible, based on their recent dominance in head-to-head matches, or a bet on any Bologna player to score, both with low confidence. However, the sometimes significant swings in results call for caution. Fixed high stakes should be avoided due to the fluctuating nature of this match, and stake sizes should be adjusted accordingly.
