Important Facts
- Lazio are stuck in ninth place (28 points) in a tight mid-table, while Como are sixth (34) with a small gap above and below them as they eye a European place.
- Lazio’s recent 1-0 win in Verona ended a four-game winless streak in the league, but their last five starts have been tough; 80% ended with under 2.5 goals.
- Como are traveling in good form despite a 3-1 defeat to Milan, scoring in each of their last five Serie A games and not losing a first half in that period.
- In terms of personnel, Lazio are lacking creativity and depth with Dia and Dele Bashiru (international duty), while Patric and Gigot are out in defense and Tavares’ future is causing unrest.
- The head-to-head record points to late momentum: Como scored after the break in all three of their last meetings, and Lazio conceded goals in the second half each time.
- The betting market also looks balanced: both teams’ wins are at 2.8, the draw at 2.9; Lazio’s many halftime draws and Como’s rare halftime deficits support this.
Matchday 21 of Serie A ends on Monday evening at the Stadio Olimpico, and the starting position already has a bit of friction because Maurizio Sarri’s Lazio are hosting newly promoted Como, who are no longer playing small under Cesc Fàbregas. Lazio Rome is ninth with 28 points, below what was expected before the season, while Como is sixth with 34 points and has its sights set on the European Cup. Nevertheless, much remains to be decided: Lazio is two points behind Bologna and Como is two behind Atalanta, the gaps are narrow, and the odds also point to a duel between two evenly matched teams. In terms of form, the two teams have recently diverged: Lazio ended a four-game winless streak with a narrow 1-0 victory over Verona, but will have to replace Dia and Dele Bashiru due to international commitments, while Gigot and Patric are also missing at the back and there are transfer rumors surrounding Tavares. Como, on the other hand, are coming off a 3-1 defeat to Milan, despite Kempf initially scoring. The head-to-head record is also striking: the last three encounters have produced at least two goals each, including Como’s 2-0 win in August.
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Date and time: January 19, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 21)
With the betting market fairly even and Lazio and Como wins both priced at 2.8, the draw at 2.9 looks like an obvious value pick. The reasoning behind this fits the pattern: Sarri’s Lazio repeatedly slips into draws, especially before the break, and Como rarely loses a first half. At the same time, Fàbregas’ team continues to score regularly, while Lazio has been vulnerable at home and will also have to do without Dia and Dele Bashiru.
Lazio Rome Form & Record Check
Lazio comes to the Olimpico in ninth place with 28 points, Bologna is only two points ahead and Udinese two behind, so there is not much room for error. Sarri has stabilized the defense, but the team’s league form still looks like that of a team caught between control and ambition. Added to this are the market rumors surrounding Nuno Tavares’ future, which could cause unrest, even if the results have picked up somewhat recently. The narrow win in Verona ended a run of four games without a win, but it was thanks to an own goal by Nelsson, and Lazio once again seemed to be holding back. Before that, the 2-2 draw with Fiorentina was entertaining but also wild, and a VAR review later suggested that a penalty for Gila had been overlooked. The 2-0 defeat to Napoli, the 1-1 draw at Udinese, and the 0-0 draw against Cremonese read like wasted momentum. In the last five league games, the starts have been tough, there have been no goals before halftime, and the games repeatedly tip into long phases with little risk. 80% ended with under 2.5 goals. This may look like maturity, but it also points to a lack of punch, especially with Dia and Dele Bashiru missing and Patric and Gigot out injured. Taylor and Ratkov are still settling in, so Zaccagni and Isaksen will have to make the difference.
Sarri is likely to stick with his usual 4-3-3 formation, with Provedel the most likely starter in goal. With Gigot still in rehab after his ankle surgery and Patric out with muscle problems, the center-back pairing should consist of Gila and Romagnoli. Marusic looks like the safe choice at right-back, with Pellegrini set to start on the left. With Dele Bashiru away and Bašić injured, it seems likely that Vecino and Taylor will line up as left and right midfielders alongside Cataldi, a trio that should maintain Lazio’s passing rhythm while also securing the back line. Up front, Dias’ participation in the Africa Cup of Nations opens the door for Ratkov as the number nine, flanked by Isaksen and Zaccagni. Rovella, Pedro, and Tavares could make an impact as substitutes.
Como Form & Record Check
Como come to the Olimpico in sixth place with 34 points, their run in the league continues to be decent, even if Thursday’s slip-up is still having an effect. They are five points behind Juventus above them and only two points ahead of Atalanta behind them, so there is little room for error. Three wins from their last five Serie A games show the trend, but their recent defeat was also an indication that they are not yet clinical every week. Their December trip to Lecce ended 0-3, and that was basically a blueprint: patient build-up, then ruthless as soon as spaces opened up. At home against Udinese, the 1-0 win was narrow but showed control, with Como protecting the center well and consistently stifling counterattacks. The 3-0 win in Pisa was even clearer, with Fàbregas’ team pressing early and then managing the game quite confidently. The momentum was lost somewhat in the 1-1 draw against Bologna, because decent field advantages were not converted into enough clear chances and the tempo dropped after the break. Como started brightly against Milan and took a 1-0 lead through Kempf after good work from Baturina, but a penalty shortly before halftime turned the mood around. After the break, they lost important duels and only posed a threat up front in phases, even though Paz forced the keeper into making saves. What is striking recently is that they tend to be cautious before the break and then much more shaky afterwards, with four of their last five games remaining under 1.5 goals at half-time. Como has scored in all five, but without Morata, they lack a clear focal point in the penalty area. Diao and Addai are still out, making it harder to maintain the wide approach that Fàbregas likes to see over 90 minutes, even if they are now playing wider. Goldaniga is expected back soon, at least as an option for rotation.
Fàbregas is likely to stick with his 4-2-3-1 formation, with Butez behind a back four of Van der Brempt, Ramón, Kempf, and Moreno. The double six of Perrone and Caqueret will set the tempo and cover Paz’s back so that he can pop up between the lines. Kühn and Baturina are the most likely options on the wings, with Douvikas planned for up front. It is to be expected that the fullbacks will consistently push forward to provide width. Injuries are affecting the options in attack. Morata is still out, so Douvikas seems the most obvious choice as target man, with Cerri an alternative from the bench. Diao and Addai are also out on the wings, so Jesús Rodríguez could be the first substitution when fresh legs are needed. Goldaniga is close to returning after heel problems, but Ramón remains in the starting lineup in this prediction.
Lazio Rome – Como Head-to-head & Statistics
The record over the last three encounters is completely even, with one win and one draw each. In August 2025, Como beat Lazio Rome 2-0, a clean, controlled result. At the beginning of 2025, they drew 1-1 in Rome. In 2024, Lazio Rome won 5-1 away, the most decisive result in this series. The most striking pattern across these three games is the timing. Como scored in the second half in all three games and never before the break, while Lazio Rome conceded goals after the break each time. All three games had over 1.5 total goals, yet the direction has fluctuated greatly, from Lazio’s 5-1 win in 2024 to Lazio’s goalless performance in August 2025. Interestingly, Lazio’s problem of not being able to keep Como quiet for 90 minutes is a constant theme, with Como scoring at least one goal each time, even in the clear defeat in 2024. The only draw, in 2025, also had more late excitement than early control, as neither team was able to pull away before halftime. If this trend continues, the second half could once again be the deciding factor.
