Hardly any other match on matchday 18 of Serie A carries as much weight as the one between Inter Milan and Bologna at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Sunday evening, with pressure mounting at both ends of the table. Inter go into the weekend in second place with 36 points, two behind AC Milan and two ahead of Napoli, while Bologna are seventh with 26 points and trying to stay in the race for European places. Chivu’s team are coming off a 1-0 win at Atalanta that kept them in the title race, even if their performances have not always lived up to expectations. Bologna are on a run of four Serie A games without a win, and while Inter remain without Denzel Dumfries and Ange-Yoan Bonny, Italiano also has to do without injured wing options Nicolò Cambiaghi and Federico Bernardeschi. Recent history adds extra spice to the fixture, with Bologna knocking Inter out of the Supercoppa semi-final in Riyadh after a 1-1 draw and losing only two of their last ten encounters with Inter.
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
- Date and time: January 4, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 18)
Interestingly, our tips overall point to a victory controlled by Inter with offensive weight, and not just to the low home odds of around 1.4 that the betting market is focusing on. Inter’s status as Serie A’s top scorers, Dimarco’s creative boost, and Lautaro’s form make Over 2.5 goals and “Inter to win the first half” plausible. Bologna’s winless run in the league and their often harmless first halves also support “Both teams to score: No,” despite their recent scare in the Supercoppa.
Inter Form & Record Check
Inter are in good form in Serie A, having strung together a run of four consecutive league wins, capped by a hard-fought 1-0 win at Atalanta after a 2-1 win in Genoa and a 4-0 win against Como, and remain the most prolific team in the league. Nevertheless, they are only in second place with 36 points, two behind Milan and two ahead of Napoli, with the title race moving within a narrow margin. The only real blemishes in recent weeks have come outside the league, with the Super Cup semi-final against Bologna ending 1-1 before Inter lost on penalties, a reminder that they don’t always finish games comfortably when their rhythm is slightly disrupted, and the 1-0 home defeat to Liverpool in the Champions League showed once again how costly a single slip-up can be at the highest level. Chivu himself speaks of a year of ups and downs, and the numbers back him up: Inter have not been behind at halftime in any of their last five games and have scored in 80% of those games, evidence of a team that starts offensively. The second halves tell a different story, with less than 1.5 goals in 80% of cases, they often manage their advantage rather than pushing for more goals. On an individual level, the form curve is carried by Lautaro Martínez, who once again decided the match in Bergamo after a clever assist from Pio Esposito, whose consistency keeps Inter close to expectations. Around him, Thuram works tirelessly, while Dimarco has become Serie A’s outstanding playmaker, already responsible for 16 big chances, five assists, and two goals in 21 appearances in all competitions this season. Defensively, Sommer and Akanji bring calm, but Inter occasionally invites pressure when they sit deep late in games, as was seen in Bergamo, and injuries to Dumfries and Bonny, as well as uncertainty over Frattesi’s future, slightly diminish their flexibility. Right-flank alternative Luis Henrique has plenty of energy but still seems inconsistent, which may explain why Inter looks dominant at times but is not always ruthless.
Inter Milan are expected to line up in their usual 3-5-2 under Cristian Chivu, with Sommer in goal behind a back three of Bisseck, Akanji, and Bastoni. Luis Henrique and Dimarco are expected to operate as wingbacks, with Dimarco once again an important creative element, while Barella, Çalhanoğlu, and Zieliński form a technically adept midfield. Up front, Lautaro Martínez and Thuram are expected to start as the regular duo. Injuries mean that this is only a predicted lineup, with Dumfries still out after ankle surgery, so Luis Henrique is likely to retain his place on the right, while Bonny and Di Gennaro are also unavailable. The bench in this prediction is experience-oriented with Acerbi, de Vrij, Carlos Augusto, Darmian, and Mkhitaryan, as well as Frattesi, Diouf, and youngster Pio Esposito. Palacios is injured and not in contention for selection.
FC Bologna form & record check
Bologna heads into its away game at Inter with a peculiar record. They are seventh in Serie A with 26 points, just one point behind Como and two points ahead of Lazio, but they are now without a win in four league games, with the draw against Sassuolo following the home defeat to Juventus confirming that their early-season surge has stalled and Italiano’s team is grinding rather than flowing. In their last five games in all competitions, Bologna have only one win in regular time, a 2-1 victory in the Europa League at Celta Vigo, while in Serie A they lost 1-0 at home to Juventus and drew 1-1 with Sassuolo. The Supercoppa run was emotionally charged, with a 1-1 draw against Inter decided on penalties before a clear 2-0 defeat to Napoli in the final. There is a clear pattern in these games: Bologna have not led at halftime in any of their last five games and have conceded a goal in each, yet most of the encounters have remained relatively close. It seems that the pressing and compactness that Italiano demands are fundamentally there, but individual errors such as Ravaglia’s miscalculated corner and Lucumi’s risky passes against Sassuolo undermine control at crucial moments. In attack, the signs are mixed. Orsolini enters 2026 as one of Italy’s most prolific scorers, with 15 competitive goals in 2025, and Fabbian’s finish against Sassuolo underlined his timing from midfield. However, Castro, strongly linked with Aston Villa and Chelsea, is in a slump after a promising start, while the absences of Cambiaghi and Bernardeschi reduce Italiano’s natural width. Overall, the team looks like it still has weight in big games but thrives on small details. The positive goal difference in Serie A points to a structure that works over time, but recent defensive lapses offset that. With only two defeats in their last ten encounters with Inter and fresh off a penalty shootout, Bologna remains a dangerous but inconsistent opponent.
Bologna are expected to stick with their usual 4-2-3-1 formation. In our predicted lineup, Ravaglia retains his place in goal after the draw with Sassuolo, backed by Zortea, Vitík, Lucumí, and Miranda. Moro and Pobega could once again form the double six, while Fabbian acts as the central link behind lone striker Dallinga. This remains a prediction that could change once the final team announcements are made. On the wings, Orsolini, who is in strong scoring form in 2025, and Rowe are likely to start again in our projection, especially as Cambiaghi is out with the flu and Bernardeschi is still missing with a broken collarbone. That would leave Castro and Immobile as options off the bench, while Freuler and Ferguson Italiano offer experienced alternatives in midfield.
Inter – FC Bologna Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last five meetings, Bologna leads this mini-series with two wins in regular time or after extra time against one win for Inter, plus two draws. The decisive results came mainly in cup games, with Bologna knocking Inter out of the Coppa Italia in 2023 after extra time and then beating them again on penalties in the Super Cup semi-final in December 2025, although the game was tied after 120 minutes. Goals were rather rare, with four of the five games remaining below a total of 3.5 goals, and in four games both teams scored, so the duels were close but by no means completely cautious. Inter scored in each of the last three duels, Bologna conceded goals in all of these games, but the Milan team was still unable to convert this series into victories. The second halves were remarkably quiet, with no goals scored after the break in these five games. Inter neither scored nor conceded after halftime, and Bologna has the same record. Perhaps both coaches, knowing how evenly matched these teams are, prefer to secure a result in the later stages rather than open up the game. Bologna were difficult opponents regardless of the venue, winning at home in Serie A in April 2025 and after extra time in Milan in the Coppa Italia in 2023. In 2024, Inter managed their only away win by a one-goal margin. In these five encounters, no team won by more than one goal, and two games ended in draws, one of which was followed by a victory for Bologna on penalties.
