The promoted team welcomes the crisis club: When Hamburger SV and VfL Wolfsburg meet at the Volksparkstadion on Saturday, contrasting snapshots will collide. While HSV are in 11th place after their return to the Bundesliga, but are still waiting for their first away win, Wolfsburg are deep in crisis in 15th place with only five points. The recent 0-3 defeat to Stuttgart earned VfL heavy criticism from their own sporting director.
The betting market rates the match as almost even, with a slight advantage for HSV. The long break since the last direct encounters, historically low-scoring halves between the two teams, and current uncertainties surrounding Wolfsburg goalkeeper Kamil Grabara all play into the assessment. Hamburg’s home record has been mixed: defeats against Leverkusen and Bochum are offset by a win against Mönchengladbach.
HSV will be without Omari, who has torn a ligament, and possibly Gocholeishvili, who is still waiting for his protective mask to be adjusted after breaking his nose. Wolfsburg will be without five players: Vavro, Fischer, Rogério, Paredes, and Lindstrøm are all missing, which will make it much more difficult to implement their possession-oriented playing philosophy. According to media reports, VfL is already planning winter reinforcements such as Cleiton to stabilize the defense.
- Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
- Date and time: October 25, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 8)
The betting odds show HSV as slight favorites with around 2.4 for a home win. Given the form and personnel factors, our analysis sees even better value for Hamburg.
The facts speak for themselves: Wolfsburg has been waiting for a win for five games, has yet to win a game this season, and has conceded at least one goal in every game this season. With five regular players injured, including three defenders and winger Lindstrøm, the defense is currently in a bad way.
On the other hand, HSV has been impressive at home, most recently in a 4-0 win over Mainz. The Hanseatic club has scored at least once in 80% of its games this season. The return of Vieira, initially planned as a substitute, further increases the team’s offensive creativity. It is worth noting that four of the last five games have seen over 2.5 goals scored, with Hamburg scoring at least two goals in 70% of its home games.
Specific betting ideas include: An HSV home win promises good value compared to the market odds of 2.4, especially given Wolfsburg’s crisis and personnel problems. Over 2.5 goals seems likely given Hamburg’s offensive form and Wolfsburg’s porous defense. For more daring bettors, HSV over 1.5 goals could be interesting, as Hamburg often scores at least twice.
Important note on risk and bankroll: There are no guarantees in soccer. Injuries, the course of the game, and chance can influence any result. Only bet money that you can afford to lose, and consider setting a betting limit.
HSV form & record check
After seven matchdays, HSV is in 11th place with eight points, level on points with Werder Bremen and one point behind Freiburg. Sporting director Stefan Kuntz describes this position as a snapshot, but at the same time urges caution.
The promoted team is showing offensive power, as evidenced by the 4-0 win against Mainz and Sambi Lokonga’s equalizer in Leipzig. However, Hamburg are still waiting for their first away win of the season.
There are problems in defense, especially in the closing stages. Against Leipzig, the decisive 1-2 goal came in the 50th minute from Christoph Baumgartner, who had previously scored the 1-0 goal shortly before half-time.
Coach Merlin Polzin is working intensively on the balance of his team. The possible return of Gocholeishvili on the right side of defense gives cause for hope. After breaking his nose, he hopes to be fit in time with a protective mask. Mikelbrencis replaced him in Leipzig.
Kuntz has set a target of around 30 points to avoid relegation and warns of a tough relegation battle, the likes of which he has rarely seen in over 40 years.
Coach Merlin Polzin is likely to rely on his tried-and-tested back three in the home game against Wolfsburg. Capaldo, Vuskovic, and Elfadli are expected to start in central defense, with Mikelbrencis and Muheim providing width on the flanks.
Sambi Lokonga and Remberg are set to start in central midfield. Philippe and Dompé are expected to start on the offensive wings, with Königsdörffer likely to occupy the striker position.
The availability of Gocholeishvili remains questionable: although he is back in training after breaking his nose, he still needs to test whether he feels comfortable wearing a protective mask and is not restricted by it. Polzin will decide depending on this. If Gocholeishvili is out, Mikelbrencis will probably take over on the wing again.
Omari will definitely be out due to a torn ligament. Gocholeishvili’s return to the team therefore remains uncertain for the time being.
Wolfsburg Form & Record Check
Wolfsburg is in the midst of a crisis: only one point from the last five Bundesliga games, four defeats in a row, and a precarious 15th place in the table speak for themselves. The team was behind at halftime in all five games, failed to keep a clean sheet, and scored in only four games. A lack of ideas in attack is coupled with defensive vulnerability.
The causes are complex: a lack of basic virtues such as commitment, aggression, and strength in one-on-one situations characterize the current situation. Coach Paul Simonis’ possession philosophy is not working with the current squad. The situation is exacerbated by five injured regulars: Vavro, Rogério, Fischer, Paredes, and Lindstrøm. Confidence in the team and among the fans is visibly dwindling.
The consequences are serious: with only one point separating them from the relegation zone, the danger of relegation is growing. There is internal unrest, the sporting director is voicing criticism, and discussions about individual players and the coach are increasing. The fans are showing their dissatisfaction, and banners have already been rolled up. Without a quick response, the downward spiral threatens to become entrenched.
Concrete measures are needed for the game in Hamburg: the defensive organization must be stabilized through a compact basic formation, less risk in build-up play, and selective pressing. Mentality and tackling require clear instructions, simple tasks for the first half, and a focus on intensity. In terms of personnel, roles must be clearly defined and players who are willing to tackle and minimize mistakes must be relied upon. Set pieces in defense and offense offer areas for success that can be trained in the short term.
Leading players such as center back Jenz and the experienced Christian Eriksen must show their presence. Substitutes need clear, simple tasks for more stability.
With a thin squad and poor form, Wolfsburg goes to Hamburg as the clear underdog. It seems possible to pick up points if the team defends with concentration and plays physically in the first 20 to 30 minutes. If they fail to do so, they face another setback and a worsening of their position in the table.
Coach Paul Simonis is expected to start with a 4-2-3-1 formation and will largely rely on proven players.
There are personnel problems in defense: Fischer, Vavro, and Rogério are out with injuries. This limits the defensive options. Tenor could play at left back, with Jenz and Koulierakis forming the center-back pairing.
In central midfield, Vini Souza and Svanberg are planned as the double six, with Majer playing in front of them as playmaker.
Wimmer and Skov Olsen are set to play on the wings. Lindstrøm’s absence leaves a gap in the attacking midfield.
Wind is expected to start as the lone striker. The lineup remains provisional, with the final decision to be made shortly before kickoff.
HSV – Wolfsburg Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record for the last five encounters is evenly balanced: two wins each for Hamburg and Wolfsburg and one draw. The most recent duel was some time ago, with Wolfsburg winning 4-1 in a friendly in October 2021.
The last competitive matches in the Bundesliga date back to the 2017/2018 season, before HSV’s relegation. Hamburg won twice, including a 3-1 victory in Wolfsburg in April 2018. There was also a 0-0 draw in December 2017 and a 2-1 win in May 2017.
A recurring pattern emerges: the first halves were often evenly matched, with three games ending in a draw at the break. Although goals were scored in four of the five games, the second halves were often uneventful. In the last three games, no more than one goal was scored after the break.
Statistically, HSV conceded at least one goal in 80% of games, while Wolfsburg also scored in 80% of encounters. In this small series, Wolfsburg appear to be more dangerous in front of goal overall.
