Five games without a win and only nine points from eleven matches, Hamburger SV go into their home game against VfB Stuttgart at the Volksparkstadion with their backs against the wall. Stuttgart travels to Hamburg in fifth place with 22 points, while HSV is in 14th place and the recent 1-0 defeat in Augsburg has further exacerbated the situation for coach Merlin Polzin, as this haul is clearly not enough for the club’s ambitions. The visitors from Swabia are in a completely different situation, coming into the game with a lot of momentum: Deniz Undav is in top form after scoring a hat trick in Dortmund, and Sebastian Hoeneß’s team is proving to be accurate both nationally and internationally, most recently with a 4-0 win in the Europa League at Go Ahead Eagles. Stuttgart is level on points with BVB and has its sights set firmly on its goal for the season of establishing itself at the top. Historically, the odds are stacked in favor of the visitors, with VfB winning the last five encounters against HSV, including the two relegation matches in June 2023, 3-0 away and 1-3 at home. This record is an additional burden for the Rothosen, who now urgently need points to avoid slipping further into the relegation zone. In terms of personnel, Hamburg will have to do without Yussuf Poulsen, whose torn muscle fiber exacerbates the team’s existing offensive problems, while Stuttgart has not reported any comparable losses of top players and currently appears to be much more stable in attack. In our assessment, Stuttgart remains in form and, on paper, the stronger team, with the Swabians clearly the favorites. We expect a game in which Stuttgart takes the initiative and sets the pace, while Hamburg will mainly try to create danger through counterattacks and set pieces. A likely result would be a 1-2 win for VfB Stuttgart. In terms of betting, an away win, i.e., Stuttgart wins, or both teams score: Yes, seem like sensible options, both of which can be combined with a slight willingness to take risks.
- Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
- Date and time: November 30, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 12)
In summary, the market favors Stuttgart with odds of 2.10. VfB currently has a very accurate striker in Deniz Undav, who has scored seven goals in the last six games, and the team is particularly effective after the break. Hamburg, on the other hand, has not scored a goal in the first half of any of its last five Bundesliga games, has to do without Poulsen, Elfadli, and Omari, appears vulnerable defensively, but at least scored in its 1-1 draw with Dortmund. Tip 1: Away win for Stuttgart, i.e., Stuttgart wins. This is supported by Undav’s form, the Swabians’ strong second halves, and HSV’s personnel and defensive problems. Tip 2: Both teams to score: Yes. Stuttgart has regularly conceded goals in recent games, such as in the 3-3 draw in Dortmund or the 0-4 defeat to Bayern, while Hamburg has repeatedly shown offensive intent despite its weaknesses, with the 1-1 draw against Dortmund fitting well into this picture. Tip 3: At least 1.5 goals after the break, i.e., at least two goals in the second half. Stuttgart has scored in all of its recent second halves and decided many games late on, while Hamburg tends to concede late goals, with equalizers or decisive goals often coming between the 75th and 80th minutes. When weighing up the risks, combination bets such as Stuttgart to win plus both teams to score: Yes increase the odds but are significantly riskier. Single bets on Stuttgart to win or at least 1.5 goals – 2.
HSV Form & Record Check
HSV is going through a difficult phase, with only one point from its last five Bundesliga games and 14th place in the table, just above the relegation zone. Offensively, the team lacks accuracy in the first half, failing to score a single goal in the last five first halves. Defensively, Hamburg has conceded goals in four of its last five games, often at crucial moments. The core problems can be summarized as follows: a lack of offensive threat before the break, a fragile defense that loses concentration against stronger opponents, as was the case in the 1-4 defeat in Cologne, and personnel shortages due to injuries in central defense with Daniel Elfadli and Warmed Omari and in attack with Yussuf Poulsen. The game in Augsburg followed the pattern: despite losing 1-0, HSV was in the game for a long time and had a good chance to take the lead through Fábio Vieira shortly before halftime, but Anton Kade’s goal in the 76th minute decided the game. Even with a numerical advantage, Hamburg was unable to build consistent pressure and create clear chances. For coach Merlin Polzin, there are a few short-term options: Defense should be the priority, for example with a more compact 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 formation and two defensively oriented midfielders to cover for the weakened central defense. In training, there can be a greater focus on set pieces and transition moments, with simple, clear sequences to create chances in the first half. In addition, a clear match plan is needed for situations where the team has a numerical advantage, with rehearsed wing and substitution options, a well-thought-out rotation to manage the workload, including early substitutions for more freshness and pace, as well as psychological measures with focused team talks and small, achievable goals, such as dominating the first half or consistently occupying set pieces.
Coach Merlin Polzin could once again opt for a 3-4-3 system. In the back three, Vuskovic is expected to play between Capaldo and Torunarigha, with goalkeeper Heuer Fernandes in front of them. Gocholeishvili and Muheim are planned to provide width on the wings, while Lokonga and Remberg could close down space and drive the build-up play in central midfield. The trio of Vieira, Glatzel, and Dompé are expected to provide attacking pressure up front. Key defensive players are still missing: Elfadli is out with an adductor injury, Omari is unavailable with a torn lateral ligament, and Poulsen is also missing in attack due to a torn muscle fiber. The above formation is a prediction; as usual, the final team line-up will only be announced shortly before kick-off.
Stuttgart form & record check
Stuttgart travels to Hamburg with confidence. In their last five competitive games, VfB has recorded three wins, one draw, and one defeat, scoring in all five games and often producing spectacular performances. With 22 points, the club is currently in 5th place, level on points with Dortmund and only two points behind Frankfurt. Deniz Undav is in outstanding form, with seven goals in the last six games and a hat-trick in the 3-3 draw in Dortmund. After his knee injury, he is showing exactly the qualities that are also of interest to the national team, which is why there have even been public calls for his return. The away game in Dortmund also showed the mentality of VfB. After trailing 2-0 at halftime, the team dominated the second half and Undav scored the equalizer in stoppage time. At the same time, defensive weaknesses were repeatedly exposed in the first halves, such as the penalty for Dortmund. In the Europa League, Stuttgart secured a confident 4-0 win at Go Ahead Eagles during the week with goals from Leweling (twice), El Khannouss, and Bouanani. Stuttgart controlled the game from the start and climbed from 20th to 12th in the Europa League table. The team’s strength after the break is particularly striking. In the last five games, the team has always scored in the second half, with at least two goals coming after the break in four of those games. This late scoring power could also be decisive in the match against Hamburg. Tiago Tomás is out with an injury and Dan-Axel Zagadou with muscle problems, but otherwise Sebastian Hoeneß has all options open to him. The defeat in Leipzig seems to have been digested, VfB has regained momentum and, with Undav in good form, is an unpleasant opponent for any club.
Sebastian Hoeneß is expected to stick with a 3-4-2-1 system. Nübel will be in goal, with Jeltsch, Chabot, and Hendriks forming the back three. Assignon and Mittelstädt are likely to play on the wings, with Karazor and Stiller expected to partner in central midfield. El Khannouss and Leweling are planned as attacking midfielders, with Undav likely to lead the line again after his hat trick in Dortmund. It is worth mentioning the long list of absentees in the Europa League. Demirovic, Silas, Diehl, Stergiou, Stenzel, and other players are unavailable due to a lack of eligibility, and Tomás is also injured. These restrictions significantly limit Hoeneß’s options, which is why the starting lineup is likely to be similar to the one that beat Go Ahead Eagles 4-0.
HSV – Stuttgart Head-to-head comparison & statistics
VfB Stuttgart’s record against HSV in the last five encounters is clear, with Stuttgart winning all five games. The most recent two games took place in the relegation play-offs in June 2023, with a 3-0 away win and a 1-3 home defeat. All five games were high-scoring, with at least three goals scored in each game, and often more. HSV scored in three consecutive games, but conceded at least two goals in all five encounters. The series spans various competitions such as friendlies, the 2nd division, and relegation, and shows that Stuttgart has been consistently superior to HSV during this period. Psychologically, history clearly favors VfB, and they are likely to be brimming with confidence, while the negative streak is weighing on HSV and could create additional pressure, especially given the high number of goals conceded.
