TSG 1899 Hoffenheim – FSV Mainz 05
On Saturday, two teams with contrasting season goals will face each other in the PreZero Arena: TSG Hoffenheim, currently in 14th place and without a win in four games, welcomes the surprisingly strong fourth-placed Mainz 05. While the team from the Kraichgau region are sliding further and further into the relegation battle after the recent 3-1 defeat at RB Leipzig and the red card for Leo Østigård, the team from the Rhine region are dreaming of the Champions League. The 1-1 draw against bottom-of-the-league Holstein Kiel was a minor setback for Mainz, but coach Bo Henriksen – affectionately referred to as a “people person” by national player Nadiem Amiri – has formed a strong team that is causing a stir this season.
Interestingly, even the statistics speak clearly in favor of Mainz: Hoffenheim had to accept a 0-2 defeat in the first leg, and in April 2024, TSG also suffered a painful 1-4 defeat. Overall, Hoffenheim has not been able to claim a victory in the last five direct duels.
Hoffenheim – Mainz 05 Info
- Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
- Date and Time: 04/12/2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 29)
Hoffenheim Form & Record Check
The Hoffenheim team is in the middle of the relegation battle with 27 points, just one point behind 15th-placed FC St. Pauli. The bitter 3-1 defeat to Leipzig once again highlighted the deficiencies in Christian Ilzer’s team, especially since Østigård’s early red card after just 28 minutes ruined all tactical variations. In the last five games, they have only managed one win (1-0 in Bochum), and TSG have also recorded two draws and two defeats. The offense in particular is faltering, with just one goal per game in four of these encounters. At the same time, the defense is vulnerable: in four of the last five duels, they conceded at least one goal – overall, they have a goal difference of -18. Accordingly, the focus is mainly on the bottom of the table, because Union Berlin is already six points ahead. Hoffenheim can only hope to use their home advantage in the PreZero Arena against Mainz 05.
Hoffenheim are likely to continue playing in a 4-2-3-1 system, although Østigård’s red card suspension will change the defense. Baumann will be in goal as usual, while Gendrey, Chaves and Nsoki are likely to be in the back four. In the holding midfield role, key players such as Prömel (cruciate ligament rupture) and Kabak (also cruciate ligament rupture) are missing; instead, coach Ilzer will probably rely on Stach and Bischof as a double six. In offense, Kramarić is in the center, flanked by Touré and Bülter, while Tabaković is in the forward line. Prass (ankle problems), Bebou (knee surgery), Samassékou (muscle injury) and Lenz (calf injury) are also missing, so the coach’s options are significantly limited.
Mainz 05 Form & Record Check
Mainz 05 is in fourth place with 46 points, exceeding even the boldest predictions for the season. Although the 1-1 draw against Holstein Kiel was a setback in the race for a Champions League place, looking at the last five games – two wins, two draws and one defeat – it is clear that the Rhine Hessians are performing consistently. It is also interesting to note that Mainz have scored at least one goal in all five games, but have also always conceded a goal. The second half is often the decisive period, with more than 1.5 goals scored in 80% of cases. With just a one-point lead over Leipzig and two points behind Frankfurt, the situation in the upper reaches of the table is extremely tight, and Gladbach could catch up with a win. Mainz now want to avoid losing ground to the top flight against Hoffenheim.
At Mainz 05, coach Bo Henriksen is likely to use the 3-4-2-1 formation as usual. A back three of da Costa, Jenz and Hanche-Olsen is likely to form in front of keeper Zentner. In midfield, Amiri and Kohr are expected to be the central drivers, flanked by Caci and Mwene. Behind them, Lee and Nebel are likely to promote offensive creativity, while Burkardt will play as a striker. Stefan Bell (thigh injury) is still unable to play, and young Maxim Dal is also out. After the draw against Holstein Kiel, Mainz could play a little more offensively so as not to jeopardize their fight for a Champions League spot.
Hoffenheim – Mainz 05 head-to-head & statistics
In the last five direct duels, Mainz 05 has been ahead: three games decided in favor of the Rhine Hessians, two ended in a draw – Hoffenheim came away empty-handed. The last time Mainz won was in December 2024 with 2-0 and also scored a clear 4-1 in April 2024. It is particularly striking that Mainz scored at least once in all five meetings, while Hoffenheim only kept a clean sheet once. Four times, Mainz even managed to score in the first half. Overall, more than 80% of the matches saw over 1.5 goals.
