A promoted team riding high in the derby meets a European contender that has pushed its way into the top group despite injury worries when TSG 1899 Hoffenheim hosts Hamburger SV in Sinsheim on Saturday. The Kraichgauers go into matchday 14 in fifth place, with 23 points and a goal difference of plus 6, level on points with Leverkusen and one point ahead of Stuttgart. HSV travel to Sinsheim in 13th place in the Bundesliga with 15 points and a goal difference of minus 6, with the clear aim of increasing their narrow lead over Augsburg near the bottom of the table. Hoffenheim are coming off a lackluster 2-0 defeat in Dortmund, their first away defeat of the season, but five wins in their previous six league games underline how much Christian Ilzer’s pressing team has exceeded expectations, especially with several players missing through injury in defense, including Machida, Frees, and Behrens. HSV, on the other hand, are riding high after their 3-2 northern derby win against Bremen, even if disappointment in the cup and mixed league results are dampening their confidence. The head-to-head record is almost even, with two wins and one draw each. The last Bundesliga match in 2018 ended in a 2-0 home win for Hoffenheim, and this is HSV’s first visit to Sinsheim in eight years.
- Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
- Date and time: December 13, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 14)
With the market seeing the hosts as clear favorites at odds of 1.7, their aggressive pressing, league-leading running stats, and home wins against Leipzig, Wolfsburg, and Augsburg still seem somewhat underestimated. However, we see the biggest advantage in Both Teams to Score: Yes and Over 3.5 Goals, based on Hamburger SV’s 3-2 northern derby win, the open, offensive-minded play of both teams, and their ongoing defensive weaknesses.
Hoffenheim Form & Record Check
TSG Hoffenheim goes into matchday 14 in strong Bundesliga form. In fifth place with 23 points, level on points with Bayer Leverkusen and one point ahead of Stuttgart, every result has an immediate impact on the race for Champions League places. The 2-0 defeat in Dortmund was their first away defeat under Christian Ilzer and cost them the chance to jump straight into the top four. Looking at their recent games in detail, their run remains impressive despite this setback: a clear 3-0 win over Augsburg capped a run of five wins in six league games. In Dortmund, however, Hoffenheim were part of a strangely flat top-of-the-table clash, developing unusually little offensive pressure and barely breaking through Dortmund’s control, making the 2-0 defeat seem like a noticeable step backwards compared to previous weeks. Previously, the 3-1 win against Leipzig at home and the 3-2 win in Wolfsburg had shown how dangerous Ilzer’s team can be when space opens up, even if the goals conceded in both games hint at continuing defensive problems. The 1-1 draw in Mainz was less spectacular and only earned them a point, but it kept their unbeaten run in the league alive at that point. The patterns from the last five Bundesliga games are clear: every game ended with more than 1.5 total goals, Hoffenheim scored in four of those five games and also conceded in four, often starting stronger than they finished. They scored in the first half in four of their last five games, while the second 45 minutes remained comparatively quiet, with under 1.5 goals in four encounters. Ilzer’s team fits its statistics perfectly, with Hoffenheim leading the league in distance covered and sprints, which fits with a style of play characterized by intense pressing and quick transitions. In attack, the responsibility is spread remarkably wide: Asllani, Prömel, Lemperle, Burger, Kramaric, and Touré all contribute several competitive goals, so the opponent cannot focus on a single scorer, which plausibly explains the constant production of chances. Defensively, however, Hoffenheim are not yet completely stable, having conceded goals in four of their last five league games, and their matches almost always contain several goals, keeping their opponents in the game in every duel. The absences of Machida, Frees, and Behrens further thin out the defense. Given their recent status as relegation candidates, however, their continued push for Champions League places already goes well beyond many pre-season predictions.
Christian Ilzer is likely to stick with his usual 4-3-1-2 formation. Accordingly, our predicted starting lineup sees Baumann in goal, a back four of Coufal, Hranac, Hajdari, and Bernardo, and Prömel, Burger, and Avdullahu in midfield. Kramaric could once again operate as a free playmaker behind a mobile strike duo of Asllani and Lemperle, which suits Hoffenheim’s direct pressing game. Burger should remain the most important stabilizing force in front of the defense, given his recent influence in the league, while Prömel and Avdullahu provide the necessary running strength around him. With Machida, Frees, and Behrens out of action in defense, the options at the back are limited, which is why the predicted back four could remain unchanged, even if the final decisions are still open.
HSV Form & Record Check
Hamburg travels to Hoffenheim on the back of consecutive Bundesliga home wins, 2-1 against Stuttgart and 3-2 in a heated northern derby against Bremen. Against Werder, they turned a halftime deficit into a victory, with Lokonga, Vuskovic, and captain Poulsen scoring, showing that the team increasingly believes it can turn close games around instead of fading at the end. Overall, however, the situation in all competitions looks more mixed, with HSV crashing out of the DFB Cup at home to Holstein Kiel after a 1-1 draw and a 2-4 defeat on penalties, which felt like a step backwards immediately after the win against Stuttgart. Nevertheless, the bottom line is that they have two wins, two draws, and only one defeat in their last five games, so the momentum is slightly upward. In the Bundesliga, Hamburg are in 13th place with 15 points and a goal difference of minus 6, level on points with Union Berlin directly above them and two points ahead of Augsburg behind them, so the buffer below them is thin. For a promoted team, this snapshot over the course of the month looks solid, if unspectacular, especially in contrast to the emotional high of recent derby victories. The underlying figures highlight a clear pattern: in the last five games in all competitions, all first halves remained below 1.5 goals, yet four of those games ended above that mark. Hamburg scored in four of the five games, but also conceded in each one, and most of the goals were conceded after the break, raising questions about defensive control. Added to this are personnel problems, with defenders Elfadli and Omari missing, as are winger Røssing-Lelesiit and striker Glatzel, leaving the options in defense and attack noticeably thinner. In the win against Bremen, Merlin Polzin called on versatile players such as Jatta, Soumahoro, and Philippe from the bench, and interestingly, recent goals from Lokonga, Vuskovic, and Poulsen suggest a more diverse attacking threat than could have been expected at the start of the season.
Hamburg are expected to line up in a familiar 3-4-3 under Merlin Polzin, with Heuer Fernandes in goal behind a back three of Vuskovic, Torunarigha and Capaldo. Jatta and Soumahoro are expected to operate on the wings as attacking wingbacks, while Lokonga and Remberg provide balance in central midfield. With defenders Elfadli and Omari still out, alternatives in defense remain limited. Up front, Poulsen is likely to lead the line again, flanked by Dompé and Vieira, who can cut inside and create space for overlapping wingbacks. Glatzel and Røssing-Lelesiit are out with muscle injuries, so depth in the final third will rely on options such as Königsdörffer, Philippe, or Baldé from the bench. This lineup remains a projection and the confirmed starting eleven may change on matchday.
Hoffenheim – HSV Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
In the last five encounters between Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV, played between 2016 and 2018, the record is completely balanced, with two wins and one draw each, and an identical goal difference of eight goals scored and eight conceded on both sides. The most recent encounter took place in 2018, a 2-0 home win for Hoffenheim, followed by a long break in direct competition. Home advantage played a significant role, with Hoffenheim remaining unbeaten at home in this series, with one win in 2018 and one draw in 2016, scoring four goals and conceding two. HSV’s two wins both came in Hamburg in 2017, with scores of 2-1 and 3-0, while their only home defeat during this period was the 3-1 loss in 2016. These games consistently produced goals, with all five encounters seeing at least two goals scored, four of which exceeded the three-goal mark, so late caution hardly slowed down the attacking spirit. The first halves were also often lively, with at least two goals in most of the duels, suggesting that both teams tend to open up spaces early rather than wait and see. Looking at the series, Hoffenheim scored before halftime in three consecutive games, and across all five encounters, they and HSV always scored at least two goals. Defensively, there was a phase of four games in which Hoffenheim conceded goals each time, mirrored by HSV, who scored in four consecutive matches, so neither side’s defense looked particularly reliable.
