TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayern Munich
League leaders FC Bayern Munich are away to TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at the PreZero Arena tomorrow, and history speaks for itself: In the last five Bundesliga encounters, Hoffenheim have conceded defeats at half-time without exception, including clear 0-4 and 0-5 losses last season. Vincent Kompany’s Munich side are comfortably sitting at the top of the table with nine points and an outstanding goal difference of +12 after three flawless Bundesliga victories. The Kraichgauers, currently in 6th place with six points, recently put in an impressive offensive performance in their 4-2 win against Union in Berlin, with striker Fisnik Asllani in brilliant form. While Hoffenheim made an offensive impact with four goals in Berlin, Bayern will have to do without key players such as Musiala, but showed themselves to be well-rehearsed after their 3-1 win against Chelsea in the Champions League. The bookmakers see the visitors as clear favorites with a more than 75% chance of winning.
- Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
- Date and time: September 20, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 4)
Hoffenheim form & record check
TSG Hoffenheim are in mixed form at the start of the season. The Kraichgauers have picked up six points from three league games, which currently puts them in sixth place in the table, level on points with Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig. Their most recent appearance in Berlin highlighted both their offensive prowess and defensive shortcomings: in their 4-2 win against Union Berlin, Asllani and Lemperle showed their scoring prowess, while Kramarić proved his routine from the penalty spot, but Hoffenheim conceded goals again. Their home record significantly clouds the overall picture, as demonstrated by the 3-1 defeat to Frankfurt in their own arena, which revealed weaknesses in defense that Christian Ilzer has not yet fully addressed. On a positive note, they got their season off to a good start in Leverkusen with a 2-1 win. Ilzer still has to do without several key players: the long-term absences of Hlozek, Machida, and Gendrey are painful, especially in attack, where Hlozek is an important component, but the team is showing morale and fighting spirit, as Lemperle’s late penalty in Berlin proved.
TSG are likely to go into the next game with the same line-up after their convincing 4-2 win at Union Berlin. Coach Christian Ilzer could once again opt for the tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 system that worked so well against the Iron. Baumann will be between the posts, with Coufal, Hranac, Hajdari, and Bernardo forming the back four. In midfield, Avdullahu and Burger are likely to play as defensive midfielders, while Kramaric will probably take on the central role in attack again after converting his penalty in Berlin. Lemperle, who also scored from the spot, and goalscorer Asllani could occupy the wide positions. Touré will likely start as the lone striker. This lineup remains a prediction, as Hlozek, Gendrey, and Machida are still out with injuries.
Bayern Form & Record Check
Bayern Munich are top of the table with a flawless league record, two points ahead of Borussia Dortmund. Vincent Kompany has made a dominant mark on his team from the outset, which is reflected in their goal tally of twelve goals and only one conceded in their first three Bundesliga games. Recent performances show a team in impressive form: a 6-0 opening win against Leipzig was followed by a confident 3-2 win in Augsburg, before HSV were formally dismantled 5-0, with Bayern already leading 4-0 after 29 minutes. The Champions League opener against Chelsea also went according to plan, with a commanding 3-1 victory in which Kane shone with a brace. The way the team won all five of their most recent games, both at halftime and over 90 minutes, shows remarkable consistency. Kompany’s system is working perfectly: Kane scores regularly, new signings Luis Díaz and Michael Olise are fitting in seamlessly, while Jackson has already made his Bundesliga debut. This offensive diversity makes Bayern difficult to predict at the moment, but with Musiala, Davies, and now Stanisic missing, important building blocks are missing, which makes the squad thinner, especially in defense.
Bayern are likely to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation, even though Vincent Kompany is forced to make personnel changes due to several absences. Musiala’s absence weighs particularly heavily, as the international plays a central role in the offensive game. Davies also remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament rupture. In defense, Laimer could play at right-back, while Upamecano and Tah are expected to form the center-back pairing. Min-jae Kim is likely to play at left-back. In central midfield, the tried-and-tested duo of Kimmich and Pavlovic is expected to start. The attack will be interesting, as Luis Díaz gets his first test in a Bayern shirt. Together with Olise and Goretzka, he will be expected to supply Kane with creativity. Kompany could immediately show his confidence in his new striker by starting him from the beginning.
H2H Hoffenheim – Bayern Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The recent record between Hoffenheim and Bayern Munich paints a clear picture of the balance of power. In the last five meetings, Munich won three times, while Hoffenheim only managed one victory. The 1-1 draw in 2023 remains the only draw in this series. Bayern’s dominance in the first half is particularly noteworthy: Munich led after 45 minutes in all five encounters, while Hoffenheim never led at halftime. TSG conceded at least one goal in each of the last five games, both at halftime and over the entire duration of the match. Bayern scored at least once in every game and only failed to score once in the first half, underscoring their consistency in attack. Hoffenheim’s only bright spot was a 4-2 home win in May 2024, when they put in an impressive performance against the record champions, but the most recent encounter in May 2025 saw them suffer a heavy 4-0 defeat at home, underlining Bayern’s overall superiority in this fixture.
The last two head-to-head matches have produced a combined total of nine goals, and with Harry Kane in top form and Asllani on the scoresheet after his brace at the Alte Försterei, there is goal threat on both sides. The tip for over 2.5 goals in the second half at odds of 2.7 is particularly interesting, as Bayern regularly step up a gear after the break and Hoffenheim have conceded or scored more than 1.5 goals after the break in four out of five games. The bookmakers rate Bayern as clear favorites with odds of 1.33, but the defensive vulnerability of both teams, exacerbated by the absence of regulars in defense, suggests that the games will be more high-scoring than the market may be pricing in. The riskiest but most lucrative bet on over 2.5 first-half goals at odds of 3.7 is certainly justified, as Kompany’s team has a 100% first-half win record so far and Hoffenheim has conceded three goals before the break in its last two home games.
