Girona – Rayo Vallecano
The heatwave is hanging over Montilivi, but there is still a sense of optimism in Girona. The club has reported record season ticket sales, and Míchel’s team will kick off the Primera División against Rayo Vallecano with Iñigo Pérez on Friday at 7 p.m. Girona has again requested a later kick-off time due to expected heat and high humidity, but so far without success. One might think that the conditions are affecting the rhythm.
In sporting terms, it is an early test. Girona ended the preseason with a 0-4 defeat to Atlético and is looking for a fresh start. There is still work to be done on the left, Miguel Gutiérrez is missing, and his move to Naples has stalled. New signing Axel Witsel is training but is unlikely to be ready, while Vitor Reis could provide immediate help. According to preliminary reports, Van de Beek and Abel Ruiz are also missing, and Iván Martín is doubtful. Rayo are travelling with positive signs from their friendly matches, most recently a 3-0 win in Sunderland, but Abdul Mumin is still missing. The head-to-head record slightly favours Girona, but Rayo won the last league match 2-1, with a 0-0 draw at Montilivi in the autumn. It should be a close start, tactically well structured and with a lot of patience on both sides.
Girona – Rayo info
- Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona
- Date and time: 15.08.2025, 19:00
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 1)
In a nutshell, here’s why our three tips are solid: Under 1.5 goals – 1st half fits the recent statistics of both teams. Girona have kept four of their last five games under 1.5 goals before half-time, while Rayo have not lost in this phase. The heat at kick-off time and a shaky left side for Girona without the experienced Miguel Gutiérrez will make it difficult for them to get their offense going early. X2 has value because Rayo is unbeaten in five games, has scored in 80% of them and has gained confidence with a clear 3-0 win in Sunderland, while Girona looks depleted in personnel, with Van de Beek and Abel Ruiz missing. Iván Martín is shaky and new signing Witsel needs to find his rhythm according to club sources, and there is also league-wide transfer and registration turmoil. Under 1.5 goals – 2nd half is based on Rayo’s trend of around 80% low-scoring second halves, expected water breaks and a drop in tempo in temperatures above 30 degrees, as well as Girona’s limited substitution options in the final third. Without their usual overload on the left, Míchel’s team will push forward less later in the game, although an early goal could break the pattern and open up the game.
Girona form & record check
Girona comes into the season finale with mixed impressions. They beat Mallorca 1-0 and Valladolid 1-0, but lost 0-1 to Villarreal, 2-3 to Real Sociedad and 0-4 to Atlético. Many of the games were close, but the collapse against Atlético was clear. The first halves have often been tough lately, with no draws in the last five competitive games.
In terms of personnel, a lot depends on the left side. Miguel Gutiérrez is out after ankle surgery, and his move to Napoli is stalling. Alejandro Francés is serving as a stopgap on the wing, with Vitor Reis expanding the options in central defense. Axel Witsel is already training and could bring stability as a defensive midfielder or in central defense, but his first minutes will likely be rationed.
Girona’s ball circulation is generally working well, but they lack sharpness in the final third at times. Vitor Reis has already had some minutes in a test match against Napoli in Italy, and the automatisms are there, but they are not yet solid. Before the start of the season, Girona is in 9th place in the table, level with Getafe and Levante, all without any points. The heat at 7 p.m. could slow down the pressing tempo.
Our prediction: Girona will likely stick with a 4-4-2 formation under Míchel. Krapyvtsov in goal, Martínez, Francés, Krejci, and Blind in defense. Tsygankov and Asprilla will probably play on the wings, with Herrera in the center and Stuani up front alongside Portu. Expect a lot of ball circulation in the second third, followed by quick runs into space, especially down the right. This lineup is a possible variation, but not confirmed.
Personnel-wise, things are tricky on the left. Gutiérrez is out after ankle surgery, Blind is likely to leave, so Francés could help out on the left if necessary. Interestingly, Witsel is already training, but was not ready for a debut last time out, so he is unlikely to start. Ruiz is injured, and the availability of some new signings could also depend on their registration. Again, this is a prediction, not a definite statement.
Rayo Form & Record Check
Rayo comes into the game on the back of a solid run in the league in May. They beat Getafe 1-0, lost 1-0 in Las Palmas, drew 2-2 with Betis, won 2-1 in Vigo and finally drew 0-0 with Mallorca. Defensively, they looked solid, while their attack was fluid at times but not always clinical enough. Interestingly, the tempo often drops after the break, which fits in with their controlled, low-risk approach.
They have not lost in their last five league games and have scored in four of them. Second halves are often low on chances, with around 80% of them seeing less than 1.5 shots. Central defender Abdul Mumin is still out, and the situation surrounding Andrei Ratiu remains unsettled, even though he is a valuable player. Most of the momentum comes from the wings with Isi Palazón, Álvaro García, and De Frutos.
Preparation ended with a confident 0-3 win in Sunderland, with goals from De Frutos, Pacha Espino, and Isi. That speaks for freshness in the final third, even if the real test is yet to come and the heat in Montilivi could slow down the game. Rayo starts the season in 11th place, level on points with Levante and Celta Vigo.
Prediction: Pérez is likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation. Batalla in goal, a back four of Ratiu, Lejeune, Felipe and Chavarría. Valentín and López in the double six. In front of them Palazón, Díaz, García. De Frutos up front as a mobile striker. The wings remain key, with quick runs in behind by García, diagonal passes from Palazón, and López setting the pace from the center.
Special note: Mumin is out with a torn ligament in his knee, so Felipe is a sure starter. On the left, Espino could be an alternative to Chavarría after his goal in the last test match. There is talk of a change for Ratiu, but from a sporting point of view, there is a lot to be said for him starting. A small variation is possible, with Díaz playing deeper as a number 10 and Palazón between the lines.
H2H Girona – Rayo Head-to-head & statistics
The last five head-to-head matches have seen Girona come out on top, with three wins, one draw and one win for Rayo. The most recent encounter in January 2025 ended 2-1 for Rayo. In September 2024, the score was 0-0. Before that, Girona won three times in a row, from 2023 to 2024, once of which was in the cup.
There are usually plenty of goals. Four of the last five games have seen over 2.5 goals, while four of the last five have seen under 3.5. Girona has scored in four of the last five games, while Rayo has conceded just as many. Interestingly, the first half has often ended in a draw, according to pattern data in four of the last five encounters.
In terms of venue, Girona has been successful twice at home, in 2024, plus one away win in 2023. Rayo’s only win in this span came in January 2025 at home with a 2-1 victory. The bottom line is a slight advantage for Girona, but the recent trend is shifting slightly in Rayo’s favor.
