Can Uzun is out injured, form is flagging after two games without a win, and yet the betting market sees Eintracht Frankfurt as clear favorites against Mainz 05 with an implied probability of victory of around 55%. The Sunday evening clash at Deutsche Bank Park is more explosive than the table suggests: Frankfurt are ninth with 14 points, while Mainz are in acute danger of relegation in 17th place with only five points. But Mainz are coming off the back of a win in the Conference League, where Jae-sung Lee scored the winner against AC Florence in extra time, and recently showed a promising offense against Werder Bremen. The head-to-head record of the last five Bundesliga duels slightly favors Frankfurt with two wins, one win for Mainz and two draws, with Frankfurt scoring in all five games and Mainz always conceding at least one goal. However, it is worth noting that Mainz already won 3-1 in Frankfurt this December, which underlines the danger posed by the underdogs. In terms of personnel, Frankfurt will be without Uzun, Oscar Højlund, and Elias Baum, while Mainz will be missing Anthony Caci and Maxim Leitsch. Benedict Hollerbach and Jae-sung Lee currently form an attacking duo that is giving Mainz a boost. Frankfurt are clear favorites on paper and need to show determination after their recent slump, but Mainz have enough quality and momentum to punish the hosts if they lose focus.
- Venue: Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt
- Date and time: November 9, 2025, 7:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 10)
The suggested tips focus on three aspects: First, a first half with under 1.5 goals, based on both teams’ low-scoring starts in around 80% of their recent games. Frankfurt has scored only twice in the last five first halves, while Mainz has also shown low half-time scores. Second, “both teams to score” seems plausible, as Frankfurt has scored in four consecutive games and Mainz has been successful in 80% of its last five games. Third, the double chance X2 could offer value due to Frankfurt’s form crisis, the absence of Can Uzun, and Mainz’s upward trend. However, there are some conflicting signals: Under 1.5 at halftime implies few early goals, while BTTS assumes a high-scoring game overall. The odds perception, with Frankfurt as the home favorite at around 1.8 and Mainz at 3.9 for the win, reflects market opinion but may not reflect the reality of the game. A conservative betting strategy could include small to moderate bets on under 1.5 at halftime as a hedge, a separate bet on BTTS as the main tip with a higher probability based on form, and, if you are highly risk-averse, a small bet on X2 as an additional hedge.
Frankfurt form & record check
Eintracht is in a mixed phase with only one win, three draws, and one defeat in its last five competitive games. With 14 points in 9th place, the team is level on points with 1. FC Köln directly ahead of them. Internationally, things have gone better at times, with a respectable 0-0 draw in Naples, but there have also been significant setbacks, such as the 1-5 defeat to Liverpool. While the defense shows organization, the offense lacks punch: in four of the last five games, they have scored a maximum of one goal. Burkardt is currently the only reliable attacker, while Wahi is struggling and Batshuayi is not convincing. A possible sale of Wahi is being discussed. Can Uzun is out with injury until the beginning of December, while Højlund and Baum are also struggling with injuries. On a positive note, Burkardt was called up to the DFB team after a strong showing in October. In the short term, a more offensive tactical approach or rotation at the top could increase creativity and finishing.
Coach Dino Toppmöller is likely to field his usual 4-2-3-1 system. Zetterer will be in goal, with Kristensen, Koch, Theate, and Brown forming the defense. Skhiri and Larsson will occupy the double six in defensive midfield. In attacking midfield, Götze will play behind striker Burkardt, flanked by Knauff and Chaïbi. Burkardt remains the only reliable option up front. Can Uzun is out with a muscle injury and is not expected to return until early December. Oscar Højlund and Elias Baum are also injured. There are uncertainties in attack: Elye Wahi is currently struggling for form and could be on the verge of a transfer, while Batshuayi has also been performing poorly recently. Overall, this leaves a comparatively small squad for the tasks ahead.
Mainz Form & Record Check
Mainz are deep in the Bundesliga relegation battle, sitting in 17th place with five points. They have not won any of their last five league games, with four defeats and only a 1-1 draw against Bremen. In contrast, Mainz are performing strongly in the Conference League: nine points from three group games, most recently a spectacular 2-1 win against Florence thanks to Lee Jae-sung’s goal in injury time. Such successes provide positive energy, as sporting director Bungert emphasized. Coach Bo Henriksen has made tactical changes and tested a new offensive formation against Bremen with Hollerbach in the half position and Lee as a false nine, which proved successful against Florence. Hollerbach set up the equalizer and scored himself, while Lee scored the winning goal with a cross. This starting eleven combination will likely also start against Frankfurt. Caci is still out with a thigh injury, Leitsch with the flu and Dal with a cruciate ligament rupture. Henriksen has not been able to fully rely on alternatives Sieb and Weiper so far. In sporting terms, Mainz is only one point behind Gladbach, and the gap to the relegation spot is also small, so the situation is critical but not hopeless.
Coach Bo Henriksen is likely to stick with the successful 3-4-2-1 system after the 2-1 win against Florence. The attacking trio of Hollerbach, Lee, and Sano seems likely to start, after the new offensive constellation already impressed against Bremen and in the Conference League. Tactically, Henriksen played Lee as a false nine and moved Hollerbach from center forward to the half-space, an idea that proved effective. Amiri and Maloney could play in central midfield, while da Costa, Kohr, and Hanche-Olsen form the central defense. Widmer and Mwene would be the full-backs. Defensively, Caci remains out with injury and Leitsch is out with the flu. Sano is a candidate for the starting lineup after his strong substitute appearance against Florence. Zentner is expected to be in goal. Nebel, Nordin, and Sieb, among others, should be available on the bench, although Nordin and Sieb have not been able to fully justify Henriksen’s confidence in them recently.
Frankfurt – Mainz Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last five meetings between Frankfurt and Mainz have been evenly balanced, with two wins for Frankfurt, one win for Mainz, and two draws. Both teams have scored in all five games, meaning that no game has ended goalless. The distribution by half is striking: Frankfurt dominated the second half in three consecutive games, while Mainz conceded at least one goal after the break in each of the last four encounters. In four of the last five meetings, a maximum of 1.5 goals were scored in the second half, indicating a cautious approach in the closing stages. Overall, eight of the ten games considered ended with more than 1.5 goals, but often remained below 3.5 goals. The most recent game in May 2025 ended 1-1 in Mainz, while Mainz had previously won 3-1 in Frankfurt in December 2024 in a surprise victory. The matches are generally evenly balanced, but Frankfurt has the better statistics in the second half. Therefore, forecasts suggest a close, low-scoring to moderately high-scoring game with typically two to three goals in total.
