Important Facts
- Florence is 18th with 17 points; a win would be hugely important in the relegation battle, while Turin, in 13th place with 26 points, cannot afford to slip towards Genoa.
- The market clearly favors Florence (home win approx. 1.7); Turin’s squad is depleted, while Florence is looking for additional stability with sporting director Paratici and new signings such as Rugani.
- Florence’s recent run ranges from a 1-1 draw with Milan and a 2-1 win over Bologna to a 1-3 Coppa exit against Como; despite chances, games often turn against them after the break.
- Baroni has to rotate heavily: Vlašić and Prati are suspended, Schuurs and Ismajli are missing in defense, and Biraghi, Casadei, and Adams are injured – shifting the offensive burden to Zapata and Simeone.
- Florence has scored and conceded in all of its last five games, and both teams falter after the break; according to the trend, neither has won in the second half in the last five games.
- The last five direct duels since 2023 have been extremely close: two Florence wins, three draws, always under 2.5 goals; Turin scored only once, often playing cautiously in the first half.
A glance at the table immediately makes it clear why there is a nervous undertone at AC Florence and also at Turin. Florence are 18th in the table with 17 points, just one point behind Lecce, while Turin are 13th with 26 points and cannot afford to slip back towards Genoa. They meet at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on Saturday in Serie A matchday 24, and both Paolo Vanoli and Marco Baroni need a reaction for different reasons. The August 2025 match ended 0-0, which fits well with this recent tough, tight pattern. There is also new energy off the pitch: Paratici has now been installed as sporting director, Rugani has been brought in for the end of the season, and Gosens has decided to stay and fight his way through.
- Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
- Date and time: February 7, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 24)
The betting market clearly favors a home win, with odds of around 1.7, and the logic behind this is understandable when you consider that Turin are traveling with few alternatives and are also missing two players, Vlašić and Prati, due to suspensions in Serie A. Florence has scored in each of its last five games, but has also conceded every time – often after the break – so “Both teams to score: Yes” and “Goals in the second half” remain very likely alongside a home win.
Florence form & record check
Florence’s recent run has been uninspiring but not hopeless, so their position in the table seems harsher than some of their performances warrant. In Serie A, they drew 1-1 with AC Milan, beat Bologna 2-1, but then slipped to home defeats against Cagliari 2-1 and away at Napoli 2-1. Across all competitions, they were also knocked out of the Coppa Italia 3-1 by Como, a result that noticeably dented their confidence and momentum. The recurring pattern: they create chances and even convert some of them, but still regularly let games slip away. In Napoli, Solomon’s finish brought them back into the game, Kean even hit the post, but the defense continued to concede too much after halftime. Vanoli now has an additional option in central defense with Rugani, and with Gudmundsson and Piccoli posing a threat, the main thing is to convert good spells into points, not moral victories.
Vanoli is likely to stick with his familiar 4-1-4-1 formation, with de Gea behind a back four that in this prediction features Dodô and Gosens at full-back and Comuzzo and Pongracic in the center. With Lamptey still out after cruciate ligament surgery, the right side seems pretty clear, even if Rugani is pushing for minutes in central defense. In midfield, Fagioli is expected to be the lone defensive midfielder, tasked with securing second balls and pushing the game forward early.
In front of him, Harrison and Gudmundsson will provide width and carry the ball forward, while Fabbian and Brescianini will support Kean with their runs. Solomon and Piccoli look like strong options off the bench if Florence needs more directness late in the game.
Turin Form & Record Check
Turin’s week tells its own story. They were knocked out of the Coppa Italia after a 2-1 defeat to Inter, and although Kulenović scored, the game showed once again how thin their air is. In the league, a 1-0 win over Lecce stopped a run of four consecutive defeats, but that came after a heavy 6-0 defeat in Como and a 2-0 home defeat to AS Roma, results that have dented confidence and structure. Baroni is currently managing availability almost as much as tactics. Vlašić and Prati are suspended for this Serie A round, while Schuurs and Ismajli are on the injury list in defense, Biraghi is missing on the left, Casadei is also reported to be injured, and Adams is listed with muscle fatigue. This puts more responsibility on Zapata and Simeone up front and could mean that Torino will have to rely on individual moments rather than sustained pressure, especially away from home.
Baroni is likely to stick with Torino’s usual 3-5-2 formation, with Paleari behind a back three of Marianucci, Maripán, and Coco. Pedersen and Lazaro seem the most likely options on the wings, while Tamèze could provide cover in the center, allowing Ilić to dictate the pace, with Anjorin providing the extra yardage. Up front, Zapata should lead the line, with Njie at his side. The selection is also affected by absences. Ismajli and Schuurs are still missing in defense, and Biraghi’s muscle problem means that natural alternatives on the left are in short supply. Further forward, Vlašić and Prati are suspended in Serie A, Casadei is struggling with a fever, and Adams and Aboukhlal are plagued by muscle problems, so Simeone and Kulenović look like the most important alternatives.
Florence – Turin Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last five encounters stand out for how little both teams have revealed. Since 2023, AC Florence has had two wins and three draws against Turin, with the most recent meeting in August 2025 ending 0-0. The other results: 1-1 in 2025, then 1-0 in 2024, another 0-0 in 2024, and 1-0 in 2023. This underscores how close the margins usually are. In addition, there is a clear scoring pattern: all five games had fewer than 2.5 goals, and the first halves repeatedly started cautiously. Turin scored only one goal in these five games, and Florence did not concede a goal before the break in this series. That explains the frequency of draws quite well. Nevertheless, because both teams have been shaky defensively after the break recently, this could be one of those rare duels in which things open up a bit late in the game.
